Mobile Adult Subscriptions, Downloads, Video Chat & Text-Based Services 2007-2012 (Fourth Edition)

Published by: Juniper Research Limited

Published: Nov. 1, 2007 - 165 Pages

Table of Contents

Glossary of Terms

Executive Summary

Introduction

Types of Adult Content for Mobiles

Text-Based Adult Services

Images

Moantones

Erotic Games

Video-Based Services

The Market for Mobile Adult Services

Figure ES.1: Total Revenues from Adult Mobile Services ($m).
Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table ES.1: Total Revenues from Adult Mobile Services ($m).
Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Figure ES2: Total Revenues from Adult Mobile Services ($m).
Product Forecast 2007-2012

Table ES2: Total Revenues from Adult Mobile Content ($m).
Product Forecast 2007-2012

Key Hurdles to the Adoption of Mobile Adult Services

Table ES3: Hurdles to the Adoption of Mobile Adult Services

1. Technology

1.1 Introduction

1.2 2G

1.2.1 Communication Technologies of 2G

i. GSM

ii. TDMA

iii. CDMA

iv. D-AMPS

1.2.2 Data Services

i. SMS

a. The Working of SMS

Figure 1.1: SMS Message Flow

b. Types of Messaging Services

- Mobile-originated SMS

- Mobile-terminated SMS

c. Premium-rate SMS (PRSMS)

1.3 2.5 & 2.75G

1.3.1 Communication Technologies of 2.5/2.75G

i. GPRS

ii. EDGE

iii. CDMA2000

1.3.2 Data Services

i. MMS

a. How Does MMS Work?

Figure 1.2: MMS Application Services

b. MMS Services

- MMS Entertainment and Information Services

Figure 1.3: Nokia’s 6280 3G Handset Supporting Video Streaming

c. Personalisation

1.3.3 The SMS/MMS Value Chain

Figure 1.4: SMS/MMS Value Chain

1.4 3G

Figure 1.5 3G Access Technologies

Figure 1.6: Growth in 3G Subscriber Base by Technology, 2002 - Q1 2007

Figure 1.7: Percentage of Mobile Users Who Own 3G Devices, December 2006
(Selected Countries)

Figure 1.8: Global 3G Subscriber Base, December 2006

1.4.1 UMTS

Figure 1.9: Evolution of UMTS

i. WCDMA

ii. EV-DO

iii. TD-SCDMA

1.5 Beyond 3G

1.5.1 HSPA

1.5.2 3GLTE

1.5.3 CDMA2000 1x EV-DO Revisions A and B

1.5.4 UMB

1.5.5 Mobile WiMAX 802.16e-2005

Figure 1.10: WiMAX Timeline

1.6 Mobile Technologies Compared

Table 1.1: Comparative Chart of Mobile Technologies

1.7 Other Enabling Technologies

1.7.1 Wireless Internet Technologies

i. WAP

a. The Development of WAP

b. The Future of WAP - Where is WAP Heading?

Figure 1.11: Future Path of WAP

ii. The i-mode Alternative

Figure 1.12: NTT DoCoMo, i-mode Subscriber Growth (m) and i-mode
Penetration of Total User Base (%) 2000-Q2 2007

1.7.2 Languages, Platforms and Operating Systems

i. Languages

a. Java

ii. Platforms

a. J2ME

b. BREW

iii. Operating Systems

a. Palm OS

b. Symbian

c. Windows Mobile

1.7.3 Other Relevant Technologies and Standards

i. MP3

Figure 1.13: MP3 Phones: Nokia N91 and Sony Ericsson K800

ii. MP4

iii. MIDI

iv. Bluetooth

2. Cellular Market Growth

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Growth of the Cellular Market

2.2.1 Global Cellular Subscriber Market

Figure 2.1: Cellular Subscriber Growth (m) by Region, 2005-2012

Table 2.1: Cellular Subscriber Growth (m) by Region, 2005-2012

Figure 2.2: Cellular Subscriber Base, Market Share by Region (%), 2005-2012

Figure 2.3: Cellular Subscribers Penetration (%) by Region

2.2.2 Leading Mobile Operator Groups by Subscriber Base

Table 2.2: Leading Mobile Operator Groups by Subscriber Base (m) Q1 2007

2.2.3 Growth of 3G

Table 2.3: Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

Figure 2.4: Global Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-2012

2.3 Regional Cellular Market Growth

2.3.1 North America

Figure 2.5: North American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology
2007-2012

Table 2.4: North American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-
2012

2.3.2 South America

Figure 2.6: South American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology
2007-2012

Table 2.5: South American Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-
2012

2.3.3 Western Europe

Figure 2.7: Western Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology
2007-2012

Table 2.6: Western Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology
2007-2012

2.3.4 Eastern Europe

Figure 2.8: Eastern Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-
2012

Table 2.7: Eastern Europe Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology
2007-2012

2.3.5 Far East & China

Figure 2.9: Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology
2007-2012

Table 2.8: Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology 2007-
2012

2.3.6 Indian Sub Continent

Figure 2.10: Indian Sub Continent Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology
2007-2012

Table 2.9: Indian Sub Continent Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology
2007-2012

2.3.7 Rest of Asia Pacific

Figure 2.11: Rest of Asia Pacific Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology
2007-2012

Table 2.10: Far East & China Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology
2007-2012

2.3.8 Middle East & Africa

Figure 2.12: Middle East & Africa Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology
2007-2012

Table 2.11: Middle East & Africa Cellular Subscriber Forecasts (m) by Technology
2007-2012

2.4 The Opportunity for Mobile Entertainment

Figure 2.13: Percentage of Operator-billed ARPU Attributable to Mobile
Entertainment Services, Selected Markets in 2006

Figure 2.14: Value of Operator-billed ARPU ($) Attributable to Mobile
Entertainment Services, Selected Markets in 2006

Figure 2.15: Monthly Voice ARPU ($), UK, Germany, Italy and US, 2003-2006

2.5 The Opportunity for Adult Content

2.5.1 Human Nature

2.5.2 Return on Investment

2.5.3 Convenience

2.5.4 Privacy

2.5.5 High Device Penetration

2.5.6 3G Technology

2.5.7 Age Verification

2.5.8 Developing D2C Models

3. Mobile Adult Market Development

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Types of Adult Content for Mobiles

3.2.1 Text-based Adult Services

3.2.2 Images

3.2.3 Moantones

3.2.4 Erotic Games

Figure 3.1: Screenshots of Sexy Snake and Sex Puzzle

3.2.5 Video-Based Services

Figure 3.2: Top Shelf Screenshot

3.3 Mobile Adult Content: Value Chain

Figure 3.3: Value Chain of Mobile Adult Content

3.4 Players in the Mobile Adult Services Market

3.4.1 Content Providers and Publishers

i. Hustler

ii. mGlamour/Mobilefone Media

iii. Naked News

iv. Penthouse

v. Playboy

vi. Princess Productions

vii. Private

viii. Vivid Entertainment Group

3.4.2 Distributors, Aggregators, Application Service Providers, and Full Service Providers

i. 3OOOH/Enquire

ii. Brickhouse Mobile

iii. Buongiorno/Blinko!

iv. Cherrysauce

v. Direct Calling/mprovider.net

vi. Displayboy/SexGoesMobile

vii. Hotfon/Playfon

viii. Interactive World/Netcollex

ix. Jamba/Jamster

x. MP Media

Figure 3.4: Screenshot of MP Media Adult Game

xi. MidniteMonkey

xii. PhoneBox Entertainment

xiii. PixMeTV

xiiv. Respond Mobile

xv. Sexobile.com

xvi. Waat Media

xvii. Xobile

3.4.3 Other Enablers

i. Bango

Figure 3.5: Co-existence of On and Off-Portal Models

ii. Blue Coat Systems

Figure 3.6: Blue Coat Mobile Operator Content Filtering System, Deployment
Architecture.

iii. Camsense/CC Media

iv. Stealthnet

v. Wapple

3.4.4 Operators

3.5 Billing for Mobile Adult Content

3.5.1 Billing Models

i. SMS-based Billing

ii. IVR-based Billing

iii. Carrier Billing

iv. Browse and Buy

v. Pay-per-view Billing

vi. Payforit

4. Hurdles

4.1 Public Reservation to Adult Service Usage

4.2 Understanding the Consumer

4.3 The User Interface

4.3.1 Difficulty in Discovering Services and Content

4.3.2 Difficulty In Accessing Services and Content

4.3.3 Difficulty in Navigating Services and Content

4.3.4 Difficulty in Utilising Multiple Applications Simultaneously

4.4 Network Speed and Coverage

4.5 Age Verification (End-User)

4.6 Age Verification (Model)

4.7 Service Pricing

4.8 Cost of Data Services

Table 4.1: UK Operator Data Prices ($) June 2007

4.9 Industry Structure

4.10 Spam - Public Annoyance

4.11 Handset Limitations

5. Regulation

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Regulatory Environments

5.2.1 Pan European

5.2.2 National Legislation

5.2.3 Self Regulation

5.3 National Regulation and Legislation

5.3.1 UK

i. Mobile Content Regulation in the UK

a. UK Operator Self Regulation Approach

b. Independent Mobile Classification Body (IMCB)

c. British Board of Film Classification (BBFC)

d. PhonepayPlus

5.3.2 US

i. Introduction

ii. “Nipplegate” and its Implications for the Mobile Market

iii USC 2257

iii. CTIA Wireless Content Guidelines

5.3.3 Canada

5.3.4 Switzerland

5.3.5 Australia

5.3.6 South Africa

i. ICASA

ii. FPB (Film and Publications Board)

iii. Wireless Application Service Providers’ Association (WASPA) of South Africa

5.3.7 South Korea

5.3.8 China

5.3.9 Cambodia

6. Mobile Adult Services Market Forecasts

6.1 Market Overview

Figure 6.1: Evolution of Adult Content from 1975 to 2005

6.2 Forecast Methodology

Figure 6.2: Mobile Adult Service Forecast Methodology

6.3 The Market for Adult Text-Based Mobile Content

6.3.1 Mobile Adult Text-Based Content Users

Table 6.1: % Mobile Phone Users Who Use Text-Based Mobile Adult Content.
Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Figure 6.3 Mobile Phone Users Who Download Adult Text-Based Mobile Content
(m). Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.2: Mobile Phone Users Who Use Adult Text-Based Mobile Content (m).
Regional Forecast 2007-2012

6.3.2 Mobile Adult Text-Based Download Traffic

Figure 6.4: Average Number of Uses of Adult Text-Based Service by Mobile Users
per Year. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.3: Average Number of Uses of Adult Text-Based Services by Mobile Users
per Year. Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Figure 6.5: Total Number of Uses of Adult Text-Based Services (m).
Regional Forecast 2006-2011

Table 6.4: Total Number of Uses of Adult Text-Based Services (m).
Regional Forecast 2007-2012

6.3.3 Adult Text-Based Mobile Service Revenues

Table 6.5: Average Price ($) Paid per Adult Text-Based Mobile Download Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

Figure 6.6: Total Revenues from Adult Text-Based Mobile Content ($m). Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.6: Total Revenues from Adult Text-Based Mobile Content ($m). Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

6.3.4 Adult Text-Based Mobile Content ARPU

Figure 6.7: Monthly ARPU for Adult Text-Based Mobile Content ($).
Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.7: Monthly ARPU for Adult Text-Based Mobile Content ($).
Regional Forecast 2007-2012

6.4 The Market for Mobile Adult Downloads

6.4.1 Mobile Adult Download Users

Table 6.8: % Mobile Phone Users Who Download Adult Content. Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

Figure 6.8: Mobile Phone Users Who Download Adult Content (m). Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.9: Mobile Phone Users Who Download Adult Content (m). Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

6.4.2 Mobile Adult Download Volumes

Figure 6.9: Average Number of Adult Downloads by Mobile Users per Year.
Regional Forecast 2007-2012.

Table 6.10: Average Number of Adult Downloads by Mobile Users per Year.
Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Figure 6.10: Total Number of Adult Downloads by Mobile User per Year (m).
Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.11: Total Number of Adult Graphics & Tones Downloads by Mobile Users
per Year (m). Regional Forecast 2007-2012

6.4.3 Mobile Adult Download Revenues

Table 6.12: Average Price ($) Paid per Mobile Adult Download. Regional Forecast
2007-2012

Figure 6.11: Total Revenues from Adult Downloads ($m). Regional Forecast
2007-2012

Table 6.13: Total Revenues from Adult Downloads ($m). Regional Forecast 2007-
2012

6.4.4 Mobile Adult Download Monthly ARPU

Figure 6.12: Monthly ARPU for Adult Downloads ($). Regional Forecast 2007-
2012

Table 6.14: Monthly ARPU for Adult Downloads ($). Regional Forecast 2007-
2012

6.5 The Market for Subscription-Based Adult Mobile Content

6.5.1 Mobile Adult Subscribers

Table 6.15: % of Mobile Phone Users Who Subscribe to Adult Content Services.
Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Figure 6.13: Mobile Phone Users Who Subscribe to Mobile Adult Content (m).
Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.16: Mobile Phone Users Who Subscribe to Mobile Adult Content (m).
Regional Forecast 2007-2012

6.5.2 The Number of Mobile Adult Subscriptions

Figure 6.14: Average Number of Subscriptions by Adult Mobile Users per Year.
Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.17: Average Number of Rich-Media Adult Downloads by Adult Mobile
Users per Year Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Figure 6.15: Total Number of Adult Subscriptions by Mobile Users (m). Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.18: Total Number of Adult Subscriptions by Mobile Users (m). Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

6.5.3 Mobile Adult Subscription Revenues

Table 6.19: Average Price ($) Paid for Mobile Adult Subscription. Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

Figure 6.16: Total Revenues from Mobile Adult Subscriptions ($m). Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.20: Total Revenues from Mobile Adult Subscriptions ($m). Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

6.5.4 Mobile Adult Subscription Monthly ARPU

Figure 6.17: ARPU for Mobile Adult Subscriptions ($). Regional Forecasts 2007-
2012

Table 6.21: ARPU for Mobile Adult Subscriptions ($). Regional Forecasts 2007-
2012

6.6 The Market for Adult Video Chat Services

6.6.1 Users of Mobile Adult Video Chat Services

Table 6.22: % of Mobile Phone Users Who Subscribe to Adult Content Services.
Regional Forecast 2007-2012

Figure 6.18 Mobile Phone Users Who Use Adult Video Chat (m). Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.23: Mobile Phone Users Who Use Adult Video Chat (m). Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

6.6.2 Mobile Video Chat Monthly ARPU

Figure 6.19: Monthly ARPU for Adult Video Chat Services. Regional Forecast
2007-2012

Table 6.24: Monthly ARPU ($) for Adult Video Chat Services. Regional Forecast
2007-2012

6.6.3 Mobile Adult Video Chat Revenues

Figure 6.20: Total Revenues from Mobile Adult Video Chat ($m). Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.25: Total Revenues from Mobile Adult Video Chat ($m). Regional
Forecast 2007-2012

6.7 The Total Market for Adult Mobile Services

6.7.1 Consolidated Product Forecasts

Figure 6.21: Total Revenues from Adult Mobile Services ($m).
Product Forecast 2007-2012

Table 6.26: Total Revenues from Adult Mobile Services ($m). Product Forecast
2007-2012

Figure 6.22: Reconciliation of Total Mobile Adult Service Revenues from Edition 3
and Edition 4.

7. Recommendations

7.1 Recommendations for Operators

7.1.1 Where Permitted, Operators Should Give Serious Consideration to the Introduction of
Adult Services

7.1.2 Operators Should Introduce Age-verification Services

7.1.3 Operators Should Consider Offering White-label Content to Supplement Major Brands

7.1.4 Operators Should Not Seek to Restrict Access to Off-portal Services and Should Reduce
Data Charges

7.2 Recommendations for Service Providers

7.2.1 Service Providers Should Consider Introducing Trial Subscriptions at Lower Price Points

7.2.2 Service Providers Should Continue to Explore D2C Offerings

7.2.3 Service Providers Should Ensure Compatibility with National/International Regulatory
Regimes

7.3 Recommendations for Regulators

7.3.1 Misleading and Illegal Entertainment Services Should Face Heavier Financial Penalties

Abstract

Focusing on key service drivers, major players, regulations at both national and international levels and social and technological hurdles, the fourth edition of the Mobile Adult report not only provides operators, aggregators and service providers with practical five year forecast data but also offers strategic recommendations for all members of the mobile adult service chain. The in depth study also offers a review of the value of the different markets and discusses key hurdles to service adoption as well as the major players behind service growth, exploring which services are making more money and why. Through 30 profiles with leading players in the industry, one to one interviews with key players and an analysis of pricing models and marketing distribution, this detailed study provides an all-encompassing view of the current and future status of the mobile adult services industry.

1. What strategies should operators, aggregators and service providers employ to maximize revenues from mobile adult services?
2. What is the current size of the mobile adult services market?
3. What are the prospects for growth over the next five years?
4. What regulatory difficulties for companies face when seeking to deploy mobile adult services?
5. Who are the leading service providers in the mobile adult industry?
6. How is the market from video chat service likely to develop?
7. What are the prospects for growth in the North America market?
8. What are the prospects for white label content?

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