Cakes and Pies - US

Published by: Mintel International Group Ltd.

Published: Oct. 1, 2007 - 66 Pages

Table of Contents

Scope and Themes

What you need to know

Definition

Resources for consumer survey data

Abbreviations and terms

Abbreviations

Terms

Executive Summary

The bottom line

Are “perfect portions” from in-store bakeries next?

Weight Watchers success and its imminent challenge

ISBs control nearly two thirds of all sales but 26% buy from independent bakeries

George Weston gaining slightly while two largest players slip

Healthier cakes could resonate particularly well among Asian consumers

The future could bring cakes/pies designed for men

Market expects market to reach $6.7 billion by 2012

Market Drivers

Americans: Fit or fat

Clearly a market for indulgent treats

Figure 1: Percentage of population who are overweight or obese, 20-74 years of age, 1988-2004

But many seeking to get fit—and, are cutting sweets

Figure 2: Whether frequently eat sweets and whether feel guilty after eating sweets, April 2000-March 2001, January-September 2004 and January-October 2006

Figure 3: Uncle Wally’s Smart Portion, 2006

Figure 4: Tastykake Sensables, 2007

Specific health issues affect the category

Trans fats are out…

… whole grains are in

Shifts in U.S. population demand attention

Aging population affecting consumption of baked goods

Figure 5: Items eat when craving something sweet, by age, March 2007

Figure 6: Population by age, 2002-12

More children

Figure 7: Households by presence of children, 1995-2005

Figure 8: Hostess cupcakes with “Over the Hedge” movie tie-in, 2006

Figure 9: Enten-mini’s Tubes, 2007

Children and health

Figure 10: Household usage of snack cakes among those with children in the household, October 2000-September 2001, January-September 2003 and January-October 2006

Smaller households

Figure 11: Households by size, 1995 and 2005

Endless sweet options pose competition for the market

Figure 12: Reasons for not eating ready-to-eat cakes or pies, July 2007

Figure 13: Incidence of household consumption of other sweet goods, 2001-06

Market Size and Trends

Market size

Figure 14: Total U.S. retail sales of cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07

Market trends

Noteworthy new products

Figure 15: New product releases in cakes and pies in U.S.*, 2002-07

Figure 16: Weight Watchers Caramel Cakes, 2007

Figure 17: Reese’s brownie from Hershey’s, 2006

Figure 18: Oreo Cakesters from Kraft, 2007

New product claims

Figure 19: New product claims in cakes and pies in the U.S., 2002-07*

Figure 20: Entenmann’s Little Bites 100-calorie packs, 2007

Figure 21: Mini Cakes from Wal-Mart, 2006

Figure 22: Snoballs from Hostess, 2006

Market Segmentation

Introduction

Figure 23: U.S. sales of cakes and pies in FDM channels (including in-store bakeries), segmented by type, 2005 and 2007

In-store bakeries

Figure 24: Sales of in-store bakery cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07

Shelf stable cakes and pies

Figure 25: FDM sales of shelf stable cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07

Cupcakes and brownies

Figure 26: FDM sales of cupcakes and brownies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07

Cheesecakes

Figure 27: FDM sales of cheesecakes, at current and constant prices, 2002-07

Refrigerated cakes and pies

Figure 28: FDM sales of refrigerated cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07

Supply Structure

Companies and brands

Figure 29: FDM manufacturer sales of packaged cakes and pies in the U.S., 2004 and 2006

Shelf-stable cakes and pies

Figure 30: FDM manufacturer brand sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies in the U.S., 2004 and 2006

Cupcakes and brownies

Figure 31: FDM manufacturer brand sales of cupcakes and brownies in the U.S., 2004 and 2006

Cheesecakes

Figure 32: FDM manufacturer brand sales of cheesecakes in the U.S., 2004 and 2006

Refrigerated cakes and pies

Figure 33: FDM manufacturer brand sales of refrigerated cakes and pies in the U.S., 2004 and 2006

Advertising and Promotion

Interstate Bakeries Corporation

Sponsorships

Movie tie-ins

New product launch support

McKee Foods

Figure 34: Little Debbie television ad, 2007

George Weston Bakeries

Figure 35: Entenmann’s Ultimate television ad, 2007

Tasty Baking

Retail Distribution

Retail channels at which cakes and pies are bought

Figure 36: From where cakes and pies are bought, July 2007

Sales of packaged cakes/pies by retail channel

Figure 37: FDM retail sales of packaged cakes and pies, by channel, 2005 and 2007

Wal-Mart estimate for entire cakes/pies category

The Consumer: Household Usage of Snack Cakes

Summary of this section

Household consumption of snack cakes

Figure 38: Incidence of household consumption of snack cakes, 2001-06

Figure 39: Incidence of household consumption of snack cakes, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006

Figure 40: Incidence of household consumption of snack cakes, by educational level of respondent, January-October 2006

Figure 41: Incidence of household consumption of snack cakes, by number of people in the household, January-October 2006

Brands of snack cakes consumed in household

Figure 42: Brands of snack cakes eaten in household, January-October 2006

Amount of snack cakes consumed in household monthly

Figure 43: Number of snack cakes eaten in household monthly, by household size, January-October 2006

The Consumer: Personal Usage of Cakes and Pies

Summary of section

Specific types of ready-to-eat cakes and pies eaten

Figure 44: Types of ready-to-eat cakes/pies eaten, by gender, July 2007

Figure 45: Types of ready-to-eat cakes/pies eaten, by age of respondent, July 2007

Figure 46: Types of ready-to-eat cakes/pies eaten, by number of people in the household, July 2007

The Consumer: Attitudes and Behaviors Regarding Cakes and Pies

Summary of this section

The role of “healthy eating” in cake/pie consumption

Figure 47: Opinions regarding healthy cakes/pies or indulgent cakes/pies, by key demographics, July 2007

Figure 48: Healthier kinds of cakes and pies category users would like to see more of, July 2007

Opinions of cakes and pies

Figure 49: Opinions of cakes and pies, by gender, July 2007

Future and Forecast

Decadence and flavor adventures could reach new heights

Manly cake and pie

Figure 50: Luna Tea Cakes, 2006

Cakes and pies for all drinking and eating occasions

Market forecast

Cakes and pies market

Figure 51: Forecast of total U.S. retail sales of cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2007-12

In-store bakeries

Figure 52: Forecast of U.S. fdm sales of in-store bakery cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2007-12

Shelf stable cakes and pies

Figure 53: Forecast of U.S. fdm sales of shelf stable cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2007-12

Cupcakes and brownies

Figure 54: Forecast of U.S. fdm sales of cupcakes and brownies, at current and constant prices, 2007-12

Forecast factors

Appendix: Trade Associations

Abstract

The U.S. cakes and pies market (including packaged and in-store bakery products) remained stable from 2002-07, in constant terms, as manufacturers attempted to wade through varied health and wellness trends. This report details the current status of the cakes and pies market, addressing the opportunities for category players. Specific questions answered in this report include the following:

• What does the “fit or fat” mentality mean for the cakes and pie market?
• How prevalent is the reduction of trans fats and how valuable is this claim to consumers?
• How is the aging of the population affecting the market?
• What is the market for healthy cakes and pies? What will healthy formulations be in the future?
• Which players are marketing to moms/kids and which have their eyes set on men? How might a category player reinvent a snack cake or pie for the male market?
• How has portion control changed the landscape and which lines in the category have been negatively affected by these options?
• What steps could retailers take to get more attention and foot traffic into their in-store bakeries?
• Which flavor innovations have generated markedly higher sales for category players in the past two years? What is the future of flavor innovations?

Mintel’s analysis is peppered with ideas and recommendations regarding new product development, packaging innovations and marketing promotions.

This report covers the sale of ready-to-eat cakes through food, drug and mass merchandiser channels, and includes the following products:

• Cakes
• Pies
• Brownies
• Cupcakes
• Cheesecakes
• Snack cakes
• Sponge cakes

Excluded from the report are products generally considered breakfast foods (such as coffee cake and doughnuts), cake mixes, piecrusts, cookies, frozen desserts and cakes for the catering market.

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