Analysis Of The Pharmaceutical Market To 2012 - Segmented By Drug Target Family

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: Oct. 23, 2007 - 194 Pages

Table of Contents

About the PharmaVitae team

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Key findings

Introduction to the PharmaVitae universe

The outlook for the market is challenging

Market performance is shaped by key ATC classes

The three fundamental dimensions of pharma space

Dimension one: molecule type analysis

MAbs and therapeutic proteins to provide the greatest overall sales growth

Generic erosion wipes out small molecule drug sales

mAbs driven by 'core' sales

Dimension two: therapy area analysis

Oncology and AIID products drive growth across 2006-12

GI and CV particularly badly hit in 2012

Targets provide a missing link between drugs and disease

Target classification

Dimension three: target family analysis

ECS target family set for superior performance

Only the ECS target family will see growth between 2011-12 (the 'patent cliff')

Position within the three fundamental dimensions of pharma space influences commercial outlook

Introduction

Novel targets offer reduced competitive pressures

Superior commercial outlook with increasing target novelty

New technologies allow expansion into novel target space

Market growth driven by biologics acting on ECS targets

Biologics offer insulation from generic erosion

ECS shielded from generics

Lifecycle stage dictates performance of small molecule drugs

Areas of high unmet need facilitate commercial success

Biologics more warranted in areas of high unmet need

Certain areas already saturated by cheap options

Perfomance relates to the balance of key characteristics

Commercial attractiveness characteristics

Not all volumes of pharma space are biologically viable

Mechanism of disease dictates the pharmacologically useful targets

Small molecule drugs cannot modulate ECS targets

Biologics cannot access the targets relating to certain diseases

ATC performance is driven by key characteristics

Segment 1: High growth biologics

Segment 2: Declining small molecule drugs

Segment 3: High growth small molecule drugs

Considerations beyond 2012

The need for new technologies

DNA/RNA therapies hit the central dogma of biology

Gene therapy

RNA therapies

CHAPTER 2 MARKET ANALYSIS

Key findings

Introduction

Total market overview

Growth drivers and resistors

Top 25 growth drivers across 2006-12

Top 25 growth resistors across 2006-12

Top 25 growth drivers 2012

Top 25 growth resistors 2012

Molecule type analysis

Small molecule drugs account for the bulk of sales

Generic substitution is greater where more generic alternatives are available

Products satisfying high unmet needs are more likely to gain market share

Biologic products will make a greater contribution to growth

Therapy area analysis

Therapy area growth drivers and resistors

Oncology and AIID drive growth

CV and GI set to decline overall

2006-11 performance

2012 performance

LCE profile

CHAPTER 3 TARGET FAMILY CLASSIFICATION

Key findings

Introduction

Targets are a key dimension of pharma space

The druggable genome

Druggability by small molecules-the Rule of Five.

Target family classification

GPCR target family

Introduction

Structure and function

Subfamilies

Ion channel target family

Introduction

Structure and function

Subfamilies

Nuclear receptor target family

Introduction

Structure and function

Subfamilies

Enzyme target family

Introduction

Structure and function

Subfamilies

Extracellular signaling (ECS) target family

Introduction

Structure and function

Subfamilies

Non-human

Other

Mixed

Unclassified

CHAPTER 4 MARKET ANALYSIS BY TARGET FAMILY

Key findings

Overview

Target family performance

ECS target family driving overall market growth

Enzyme and GPCR target families take the greatest hit in 2012

Therapy area analysis: satisfaction of unmet needs drives success

GPCR targets take the largest share of the CV and CNS sales

CV therapy area set for 'boom and bust'

Without target innovation, CNS products struggle to offset expiries

ECS targets drive growth of the oncology and AIID therapy areas

Falling sales of enzyme modulators bring down GI

Molecule type analysis

Monoclonal antibody (mAb) sales are driven by ECS targets

Therapeutic protein analysis

Small molecule drugs are highly susceptible to generic erosion

Vaccine sales are entirely derived from non-human targets

LCE analysis

Launch

Core

Expiry

CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR RECEPTOR AND ION CHANNEL TARGET FAMILIES

Key findings

Overview: nuclear receptor and ion channel target families

Contribution to total market sales is set to diminish further

Ranked amongst the smallest target families by sales

Forecast to experience the fastest rate of decline

Scope for expansion is restricted

Small number of possible nuclear receptor target types

Nuclear receptors are not readily targeted by biologics

Ion channels offer significant potential, but are limited by their high association with CNS disorders

Therapy area analysis: key areas dictate overall performance

Diabetes & endocrinology pulls down nuclear receptor-related sales

Diabetes sales are pulled down by genericization of just one target type

Women's health products generate growth for the nuclear receptor target family

Growth despite limited target innovation

Tougher times ahead?

CNS pulls down ion channels

CNS is the largest ion channel therapy area by sales

New launches are not sufficient to overcome the decline of older products

Competition high due to lack of target innovation

Products not revolutionizing the satisfaction of unmet needs

Molecule type analysis: exclusively small molecule

LCE analysis: expiries drag sales into decline

CHAPTER 6 EXTRACELLULAR SIGNALLING PROTEIN (ECS) TARGET FAMILY

Key findings

Overview: ECS target family

Fastest rate of growth over 2006-12

Only target family to see growth in 2012

Therapy area analysis: driving growth of AIID & oncology

AIID sales growth is entirely reliant on ECS targets

Sales are largely derived from products acting on TNF-a

Novel targets generate growth as anti-TNF market slows

Novel ECS targets drive oncology growth

Success drawn from 'locking competitors out' of key targets

Molecule type analysis: new technologies opened up ECS targets

MAb technology has allowed novel ECS targets to be exploited

Unique position compared to other target families

Potential small molecule threat?

LCE analyis: growth across all LCE components

Expansion through novel targets

Free from declining 'expiry' sales

CHAPTER 7 ENZYME AND GPCR TARGET FAMILIES

Key findings

Overview: enzyme and GPCR target families

The largest target families by sales

Forecast to see the greatest decline over 2011-12

Therapy area analysis: novel targets drive growth

Enzyme sales growth wiped out by declining therapy areas.

Novel targets drive oncology sales and the enzyme target family

Transferase targets drive oncology therapy area growth

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors exemplify novel target value

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors account for the bulk of enzyme target family gains

GI and CV sales hit by loss of patents on key classes

Heavily reliant on ageing PPIs, GI sales are set decline

HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors erode enzyme target family growth

GPCR sales growth across all therapy areas but eroded in 2012

Angiotensin II receptor antagonists drive CV growth but hit by genericization

New CNS launches do little to replace the loss of 'blockbusters'

Diabetes sales driven by novel targets

Molecule type analysis: almost entirely small molecule

LCE analysis: expiries offset growth

Significant 'launch' gains driven by availability of novel targets

Massive 'expiry' loss in 2012

CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX

Target sub-sub-families

GPCR sub-sub-families

Nuclear receptor sub-sub-families

Enzyme sub-sub-families

Details of mixed and unclassified

Avandia

References

Journals

Websites

Abbreviations

List of Tables

Table 1: PharmaVitae company coverage by peer set

Table 2: Target family classification

Table 3: Datamonitor's commercial attractiveness characteristics

Table 4: Top 25 growth drivers, 2006-12 ($m)

Table 5: Top 25 growth resistors, 2006-12 ($m)

Table 6: Top 25 growth drivers, 2011-12 ($m)

Table 7: Top 25 growth resistors, 2011-12 ($m)

Table 8: Target family classification

Table 9: GPCR subfamilies

Table 10: Ion channel subfamilies

Table 11: Nuclear receptor subfamilies

Table 12: Enzyme superfamilies

Table 13: ECS subfamily classification

Table 14: GPCR sub-sub-families

Table 15: Nuclear receptor sub-sub-families

Table 16: Enzyme sub-sub-families

List of Figures

Figure 1: Pharmaceutical market performance, sales ($m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2006-12

Figure 2: Top 10 growth driver/resistor ATC classes

Figure 3: Change in total market sales by molecule type, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 4: Molecule type sales growth by LCE stage, 2006-12 (%)

Figure 5: Change in total market sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 6: Dynamics of key therapy area sales, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 7: Three dimensions of pharma space

Figure 8: Change in total market sales by target family, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 9: Target family growth rates, 2006-12 (CAGR %)

Figure 10: Change in total market sales by target family, 20011-12 ($m)

Figure 11: Technological advances expand the 'druggable' space

Figure 12: Molecule type sales by target family, 2006 (%)

Figure 13: Change in year-on-year sales by LCE stage, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 14: Therapy area sales by target family, 2006 ($m)

Figure 15: Key characteristics influencing commercial attractiveness

Figure 16: Factors limiting the exploitable pharma space

Figure 17: Key ATC class outlook and position against commercial attractiveness characteristics, change in sales 2006-12

Figure 18: Key market segments, 2006-12

Figure 19: The central dogma of biology and potential role of DNA/RNA therapies in relation to traditional 'drugging' approaches

Figure 20: Gene 'silencing' by short interefering RNA (siRNA)

Figure 21: Report structure

Figure 22: Total market sales, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 23: Total market sales by molecule type, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 24: Substitution of branded small molecule drugs for generics

Figure 25: Change in total market sales by molecule type, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 26: Total market sales by therapy area, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 27: Change in total market sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 28: Change in total market sales by therapy area, 2006-11 ($m)

Figure 29: Change in total market sales by therapy area, 2011-12 ($m)

Figure 30: Change in total market sales by LCE stage, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 31: Change in year-on-year sales by LCE stage, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 32: The role of drug targets in disease treatment

Figure 33: The commercially useful subset of the human genome

Figure 34: GPCRs structure

Figure 35: Functional architecture of an ion channel

Figure 36: Structural organization of nuclear receptors

Figure 37: Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) structure

Figure 38: Total market sales by target family, 2006 ($m)

Figure 39: Target family sales CAGR, 2006-12 (%)

Figure 40: Total market sales by target family, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 41: Total market sales by target family, 2011-12 ($m)

Figure 42: Year-on-year change in target family sales, weighted as a proportion of change in total sales, 2004-12 (%)

Figure 43: CV therapy area sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 44: CNS therapy area sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 45: Oncology therapy area sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 46: AIID therapy area sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 47: GI therapy area sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 48: Monoclonal antibody sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 49: Therapeutic protein sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 50: Therapeutic protein sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 51: Small molecule drug sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 52: Small molecule drug sales by target family, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 53: Vaccine sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 54: 2003-12 'launch' portfolio sales by target family ($m)

Figure 55: 2006-12 'launch' portfolio sales by target family ($m)

Figure 56: 2003-12 'core' portfolio sales by target family ($m))

Figure 57: 2006-12 'core' portfolio sales by target family ($m)

Figure 58: 2003-12 'expiry' portfolio sales by target family ($m)

Figure 59: 2003-12 'expiry' portfolio sales by target family ($m)

Figure 60: Nuclear receptor and ion channel target family characteristics

Figure 61: Total market sales by target family, 2006 ($m)

Figure 62: Target family 2006-12 CAGR (%)

Figure 63: Nuclear receptor target sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 64: Sales of diabetes & endocrinology products that act on nuclear receptor or ion channel targets, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 65: Sales of women's health products targeting nuclear receptors, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 66: Ion channel sales by therapy area, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 67: Ion channel sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 68: Sales of CNS therapy area products acting on ion channel targets, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 69: Combined nuclear receptor & ion channel sales by molecule type, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 70: Nuclear receptor & ion channel LCE profile, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 71: Nuclear receptor & ion channel progressive LCE profile ($m)

Figure 72: ECS target family characteristics

Figure 73: Total market sales by target family, 2006 ($m)

Figure 74: Target family 2006-12 CAGR (%)

Figure 75: Total market sales by target family, 2011-12 ($m)

Figure 76: ECS target sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 77: ECS target sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 78: AIID therapy area sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 79: AIID therapy area sales by target family, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 80: AIID therapy area sales from products acting on ECS targets, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 81: Oncology therapy area sales by target type, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 82: ECS targets in the oncology therapy area, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 83: ECS target family sales by molecule type, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 84: ECS target family sales by molecule type, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 85: Proportion of target family sales by molecule type, 2006 (%)

Figure 86: ECS target family LCE profile, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 87: Enzyme and GPCR target family characteristics

Figure 88: Total market sales by target family, 2006 ($m)

Figure 89: Target family 2006-12 CAGR (%)

Figure 90: Total market sales by target family, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 91: Total market sales by target family, 2011-12 ($m)

Figure 92: Enzyme target family sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 93: Enzyme-targeting product sales by therapy area, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 94: Sales of oncology products by enzyme subfamily, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 95: Total enzyme target family sales by subfamily, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 96: GI product sales from enzyme targets, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 97: CV product sales from oxidoreductase targets, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 98: GPCR-targeting product sales by therapy area, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 99: GPCR target family sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 100: Enzyme and GPCR target family sales by molecule type, 2003-12 ($m)

Figure 101: Enzyme & GPCR target family LCE profile, 2006-12 ($m)

Figure 102: 2006-12 'launch' portfolio sales by target family ($m)

Figure 103: Enzyme & GPCR target family progressive LCE profile ($m)

Figure 104: Target family sales growth rates including 'mixed' components, CAGR 2006-12 (%)

Abstract

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