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Banking Market in Poland 2007 - CEE Banking Series- Update H1 2007 The

Published by: Intelace Research

Published: Oct. 1, 2007 - 111 Pages


Table of Contents


1. Macroeconomic overview

Slide 1: Executive summary

Slide 2: Poland - General overview

Slide 3: Key macroeconomic indicators, 2000-2007H1

Slide 4: Foreign trade statistics, C/A balance, FDIs, 2000-2007H1

Slide 5: Yield curves, 2001-2007H1

Slide 6: Warsaw Stock Exchange - Turnover, Market cap and indexes, 2000-2006

Slide 7: Unemployment and wages, 2000-2007H1

Slide 8: Disposable income in households and distribution, 2000-2006

Slide 9: Consumer confidence Index evolution, 2004-2007

2. Banking market

2.1. Banking market - General trends

Slide 10: CEE banking markets: Size vs. growth matrix, 2004-2006

Slide 11: CEE banking penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2006

Slide 12: Structure of the Polish Banking System, 2007H1

Slide 13: Polish Banking System ERA analysis, 1989-2007

Slide 14: Evolution of banking assets by ownership, 1993-2007H1

Slide 15: Top foreign investors on the Polish banking market, 2006

Slide 16: Banking assets evolution (LCU, EUR), 2000-2007H1

Slide 17: Banking assets evolution (in EUR) by type of banks, 2000-2007H1

Slide 18: Top 12 commercial banks, market shares, ownership, 2007H1

Slide 19: Top 12 commercial banks - pro forma calculation including recent M&A activity, 2006

Slide 20: Concentration of the banking market (Assets, Branches, ATMs, HH Index), 2006/2007H1

Slide 21: Deposits by customer segment evolution, 2000-2007H1

Slide 22: Loans by customer segment evolution, 2000-2007H1

Slide 23: Non-performing loans evolution and ratios by type of customer, 2000-2007H1

2.2. Banking market - Regulatory overview

Slide 24: Regulatory overview: Regulatory bodies on the Polish banking market

Slide 25: BFG - Deposit Insurance Fund

Slide 26: BIK - Credit information Office

Slide 27: Central Bank mandatory reserve policy, 2000-2006

Slide 28: Recent regulatory initiatives: Anti-usury, FX-denominated mortgage

2.3. Banking market - Banking Infrastructure

Slide 29: Bank outlets by type evolution, 2000-2007H1

Slide 30: Bank outlets development plans of major banks, 2006

Slide 31: Employment in commercial banks sector, productivity per employee evolution, 2000-2007H1

Slide 32: ATM evolution, 2000-2006

Slide 33: POS evolution, 2000-2006

3. Retail banking

Slide 34: Account penetration in Poland vs. other countries, 2004/2006

Slide 35: Retail banking clients by segment in Poland, 2006

Slide 36: Households deposits and cash evolution, 2000-2007H1

Slide 37: Households loans evolution, 2000-2007H1

Slide 38: TOP 5 banks serving households sector, market shares, 2006

Slide 39: Retail deposits structure by currency evolution, 2000-2007H1

Slide 40: Retail deposits structure by maturity evolution, 2000-2007H1

Slide 41: Investment funds assets evolution, 1996-2007H1

Slide 42: Investment funds assets composition, 2006

Slide 43: Investment funds market shares - Top 10 players, 2006

Slide 44: Personal Financial Assets (PFA) structure and evolution, 2004-2006

Slide 45: Retail loans by type evolution, 2000-2007H1

Slide 46: Mortgage by currency evolution, 2000-2007H1

Slide 47: Cards issued by type evolution, 2000-2006

Slide 48: Card transactions evolution, 2000-2006

Slide 49: Credit card transactions , values, volumes, per card evolution, 2000-2006

Slide 50: Top players in credit cards business, 2006

Slide 51: Installment loans market, 2006

Slide 52: Car loans market, 2006

Slide 53: Cash loans market, 2006

Slide 54: Mass payments market structure, 2006

Slide 55: Financial intermediaries segmentation, 2006

Slide 56: Major intermediaries by value loans sold, 2006

Slide 57: Total number and value of loans and funds sold by major intermediaries, 2006

Slide 58: Specialized loan distribution networks of banks, 2006

Slide 59: Perspectives for financial intermediaries

Slide 60: Use of direct channels by cash loan providers, 2006

Slide 61: Internet and PC penetration in Polish households, shopping online penetration, 2006

Slide 62: Current accounts at major banks, internet access penetration

Slide 63: Direct Cash loans distribution - Sygma

Slide 64: Online Banking - mBank case

4. Corporate banking

Slide 65: Corporate subjects, number and revenues, 2004/2006

Slide 66: Corporate deposits and loans evolution, 2000-2007H1

Slide 67: Top 5 players on the corporate banking market, 2006

Slide 68: Brokerage business, top players, 2000-2006

Slide 69: Leasing market, top players, 2000-2006

Slide 70: Non-treasury debt security market, 2000-2006

5. Banks profitability

Slide 71: Average retail and corporate banking margins evolution, 2004-2007H1

Slide 72: Commercial banks profitability tree - market averages evolution, 2003-2006

Slide 73: Top 5 commercial banks profitability tree - comparison, 2006

Slide 74: Efficiency of top banks in Poland - Cost to income, Assets/Pers/Branches benchmarks, 2006

Slide 75: Segment reporting (1/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate), 2006

Slide 76: Segment reporting (2/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate), 2006

6. Banks valuation and M&A activity

Slide 77: Strategic control map for major listed banks in Poland, 2007Q1

Slide 78: Market multiples for major listed banks in Poland, 2007Q1

Slide 79: Share performance on the stock market for major listed banks in Poland, 2006- 2007Q1

Slide 80: Recent M&A transactions on the Polish banking market, P/BV multiples

7. Top banks profiles

Slide 81-82: Bank profiles: PKO Bank Polski

Slide 83-84: Bank profiles: Bank Pekao

Slide 85-86: Bank profiles: Bank BPH

Slide 87-88 Bank profiles: ING Bank Œlšski

Slide 89-90: Bank profiles: BRE Bank

8. Mid-term forecasts

Slide 91: Banking assets forecast, 2007-2009

Slide 92: Key retail volumes forecast, 2007-2009

Slide 93: Key corporate volumes forecast, 2007-2009

9. Note on methodology

Abstract

Profits are going up.
In 2006 the combined net profit of commercial banks in Poland increased 17% to 2.6 bn EUR. Key profitability ratios of banks improved significantly: ROAA rose to 1.7%, while ROAE exceeded 16%. These favorable developments were attributable in the first line to quickly growing volumes (commercial banks assets increased by 16%) and other factors like stable margins and well controlled costs

Concentration is growing.
The upcoming merger of Pekao with large part of BPH will produce a new market leader in terms of assets, controlling ~17% of the market. The new Pekao will play a key role in corporate business (~32% and 24% market share in deposits and lending respectively as of 2006) and will hold 2nd position in retail. Apart of this big merger there have been recently three smaller M&A transactions on the market: GE Money Bank won the BPH200 tender, Fortis took over Dominet bank and DnB Nord acquired BISE

New investments in infrastructure.
Since 2005 there is a visible trend among banks to expand physical distribution networks. Despite significant growth of electronic channels, banks try to exploit the opportunity of coming closer to clients by opening more smaller and multifunctional outlets. The combined investment plans of commercial banks add to over 1500 new outlets until 2008. It is noticeable that a big part of newly opened outlets are franchising/partner networks operated by 3rd parties. At the same time banks invest in specialized networks (new brands) focused on a single product or customer segment and improve functionality of direct channels

Perspectives better than ever.
Strong economic growth, rising corporate spending and growing wealth of individuals will translate into increased demand for banking services. In mid-term horizon retail banking will remain the key growth driver with very strong mortgage lending business. At the same time increased corporate investments will also revive lending that has stagnated for several years until 2006. In short term perspective a moderate rate increase by Central Bank (25-50 bp. in 2007) can be anticipated in reaction to accelerating inflation. As a result, rising market rates may negatively affect lending margins until rate adjustments will take place. As for the whole market, we expect banking assets to rise at 18% p.a. through 2009.

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