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Published by: Mintel International Group Ltd.
Published: Aug. 1, 2007 - 102 Pages
Table of Contents
- Scope and Themes
- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data collection
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- Executive Summary
- Highlights
- Increasing PDI allows market growth in spite of low consumer confidence
- Growth favors FSRs
- The changing consumer base
- Increased competition from supermarkets and c-stores
- Young people present opportunity for expansion
- Relaxation and food quality top priorities for lunchtime dining
- Late lunch and the lunch-site as a workplace
- Time pressure
- Streamlined ordering and payment
- Lunch at desk a new market for foodservice providers
- Discounts and promotions can bolster flagging volume
- All sectors moving upscale
- Green eating here to stay
- “Fresh” is the new “healthy”
- Market Overview
- Introduction
- The changing definition of lunch
- Breakfast for lunch
- Moving on up(scale)
- Traditional QSR
- QSRs aim higher
- Fast casual
- Coffee, bagels, donuts, and more
- Save the donut for dessert
- Beyond bagels
- Coffeehouses aim to increase lunch traffic and overall amenities
- Supermarkets
- Convenience stores
- On-site cafeterias
- Throwing out the “institutional” look
- Full service restaurants
- Figure 1: Share of menu items with health claims, by restaurant type, Q4 2006
- Market Size
- Increasing DPI carries weak consumer confidence
- Figure 2: Consumer Sentiment Index, DPI, and lunch sales, 2001-05
- Figure 3: Graph: Consumer Sentiment Index, DPI, and lunch sales, 2001-05
- Market size
- Figure 4: Total U.S. sales of lunch away from home, at current and constant prices, 2000-06
- Market forecast
- Figure 5: Forecast total U.S. sales of lunch away from home, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Forecast factors
- Segment share forecast
- Figure 6: Sales of lunch, segmented by type of vendor, 2005 and 2011
- Sources of Lunch
- Introduction
- Figure 7: Sources of lunch, weekday and weekend, June 2007
- Figure 8: Percentage of lunches eaten at home, purchased away from home, packed from home, lunches skipped or acquired free, on weekdays and weekends, June 2007
- Figure 9: Sources of lunch, by age, June 2007
- Figure 10: Incidence of purchasing and packing lunch, by age, household income, Hispanic origin, and number of children in household, June 2007
- Use of dine-in, take-out and delivery
- Figure 11: Frequency of using a drive-through, dining in, pick-up, and delivery of weekday and weekend lunches, by gender, June 2007
- Figure 12: Weekday purchased lunches by method of delivery, June 2007
- Figure 13: Frequency of using a drive-through, dining in, pick-up, and delivery of weekday lunches, by age, June 2007
- Figure 14: Frequency of using a drive-through, dining in, and delivery of weekday lunches, by number of children in household, June 2007
- Trends in penetration of LSR and FSR for lunch
- Figure 15: Trend: Change in use of fast food restaurants and full service restaurants, 2002 and 2006
- Frequency of weekday and weekend usage by type of lunch service
- Figure 16: Number of lunches out in past month, by type of dining establishment, June 2007
- Figure 17: Percentage of weekday lunchtime patrons who are frequent users by type of dining establishment, June 2007
- Figure 18: Lunches out, by type of dining establishment, by gender, June 2007
- Figure 19: Lunches out, by type of dining establishment and household income, June 2007
- Figure 20: Lunches out, by type of dining establishment and Hispanic origin, June 2007
- Figure 21: Lunches out, by type of dining establishment and number of children in the household, June 2007
- Figure 22: Lunches out, by type of dining establishment: chain vs. independent restaurants, by education level, June 2007
- Figure 23: Attitudes toward chain restaurants, by education level, June 2007
- Perceptions of Food Quality
- Figure 24: Perceptions of changes in the quality of food served at fast food restaurants, by gender, June 2007
- Figure 25: Perceptions of changes in the quality of food served at fast food restaurants, supermarkets, convenience stores and cafeterias, by age, June 2007
- Dining Party Composition
- Figure 26: Reasons to eat lunch at a restaurant, by gender, September 2006
- Figure 27: Party composition, by gender, June 2007
- Figure 28: Party composition, by household income, June 2007
- Figure 29: Party composition, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2007
- Preferences in Lunchtime Eating Environment
- Figure 30: Workday lunchtime eating environment preferences, by gender, June 2007
- Figure 31: Workday lunchtime eating environment preferences, by age, June 2007
- Figure 32: Workday lunchtime eating environment preferences, by household income, June 2007
- Figure 33: Preference for lunch buffets, by number of children in the household, June 2007
- Time Pressure
- Introduction
- Lunch breaks continue to shrink
- Figure 34: Average time for lunch break, Steelcase Workplace Study, 1996 and 2005
- Figure 35: Length of time available for lunch, weekdays, June 2007
- Influence of time deprivation on lunch choices
- Figure 36: Sense of time deprivation and concern over speed of service at lunch, by age, June 2007
- Figure 37: Sense of time deprivation and concern over speed of service at lunch, by race/ethnicity, June 2007
- Figure 38: Sense of time deprivation and concern over speed of service at lunch, by number of children in household, June 2007
- Influence of time pressure on the incidence of packing or buying lunch
- Figure 39: Mean length of lunch break, time spent commuting, and time spent at work for people who packed lunches, people who purchased lunch infrequently, and people who purchased lunch frequently, June 2007
- Industry Responses to Short Lunch Breaks
- Introduction
- Curbside pickup
- Improved ordering and payment technology
- Online ordering
- Figure 40: Incidence of purchasing and packing lunch, by gender, age, and number of children in household, June 2007
- Ordering via text message
- Speedier payment with plastic
- Hybrid FSR/fast-casual restaurants
- Lunch at the desk
- Fresh and premium packed lunches for the family
- Value for Money
- Tight budgets
- Figure 41: Barriers to frequent restaurant dining, 2005
- Discounts and promotions
- Figure 42: Preference for discounts at lunch on workdays, by gender, race, and hispanic origin, June 2007
- Green Eating
- Introduction
- Organic offerings increasing rapidly
- Figure 43: Number of organic menu items on Menu Insights database, Q1 2005-Q4 2006
- All natural and organic are among the leading claims on packaged foods
- Figure 44: Top ten food claims in new product launches in the U.S., by quarter, 2006
- Attitudes toward green eating at lunch
- Figure 46: Interest in local, natural, organic, cruelty-free, and vegetarian eating when purchasing lunch, by age, June 2007
- Figure 47: Interest in diet trends, by age, February 2007
- Figure 48: Interest in local, natural, organic, cruelty-free, and vegetarian eating when purchasing lunch, by education, June 2007
- Vegetarian, vegan, pescetarian, and flexitarian eating
- Green eating and packing lunch
- Figure 49: Interest in local, natural, organic, cruelty-free, and vegetarian eating when purchasing lunch, among those who pack lunch and those who don’t pack lunch, June 2007
- Why eat green?
- Green eating here to stay
- Healthy Eating
- Introduction
- Responses to concerns about unhealthy eating
- Healthier options embraced by the foodservice industry
- Figure 50: Trend: Menu items marketed with health claims, Q1 2005-Q1 2007
- Return of the salad
- Avoiding drowsy afternoons
- Consumer attitudes toward healthy eating
- Figure 51: Trend: Changing attitudes toward healthy eating, 2002 and 2006
- Figure 52: Interest in nutrition and healthy eating when purchasing lunch, by gender, June 2007
- Figure 53: Interest in nutrition and healthy eating when purchasing lunch, by education, June 2007
- Figure 54: Interest in nutrition and healthy eating when purchasing lunch, among those who pack lunch and those who don’t pack lunch, June 2007
- Smaller portions
- Educational attainment increasing
- Figure 55: Educational attainment by age, 2006
- The battle for semi-retired Boomers may be won in healthy offerings
- Ethnic Foods
- Introduction
- Increasing ethnic and racial diversity in the workplace
- Increased immigrant diversity
- Figure 56: U.S. immigration rates, 2006, and change in rates, 1997-2006, by immigrant country of origin
- Attitudes toward bolder spicing and ethnic flavors
- Figure 57: Trend: Changing attitudes toward ethnic and spicy foods, 2002 and 2006
- Interest in specific cuisines
- Figure 58: Interest in ethnic food, by cuisine, July 2007
- Ethnic flavors to proliferate
- Appendix: Trade Associations
AbstractLunchtime eating is undergoing a rapid distributional shift, as new players, including supermarkets, convenience stores, and fast-casual restaurant chains chip away at the traditional dominance of the quick-service restaurant sector. The rapid growth of the fast-casual sector, combined with other market forces, has led to broad changes in consumer expectations for the quality and freshness of prepared lunches. Traditional quick-service restaurants are responding with improvements to their menus, décor, and amenities, including the addition of healthier, organic, and natural menu items.
Opportunities for growth in the lunchtime market are limited by slow population growth for groups outside of the over-55 demographic. However, certain time-strapped consumer groups, including 18 to 35 year olds and consumers with children in the household, continue to offer growth potential for vendors who can deliver convenience, speed of service, quality, and value.
This report identifies key developments that will shape the future of the lunch market and suggests ways that vendors can reposition and adapt to make the most of expected changes. For example, interest in ethnic foods and bolder flavors continues to grow. National restaurant chains that continue to add new flavors and more diverse cuisines to their menus will find themselves well positioned for a future market including more immigrants from new parts of the world, as well as an increasingly sophisticated American palate.
This comprehensive study of the market identifies recent trends, especially those that offer opportunities for future growth. Examples include the growth of timesaving services such as curbside pickup, and the proliferation of “smaller appetite” menus, which is an attempt to increase restaurant traffic by bringing in more diners on limited budgets and diets (as well as snackers).
The heart of the report is Mintel’s exclusive consumer research and analysis, which explores behavior, attitudes, and preferences related to lunch. This analysis identifies differing lunchtime eating patterns, from those who pack their lunches regularly to those who purchase lunch often (“frequent diners”). Young adults (18-34), who exhibit the most flexibility in their lunchtime eating behavior, present a substantial opportunity for vendors who can offer quality, low-cost lunch options that fit their busy lifestyles.
Consumers interested in “green” eating were studied in depth and profiled by age, gender, and race/ethnicity. Interest in healthy eating, lack of time to eat lunch, and interest in discounts, coupons, and lunch specials are among the other factors that were analyzed and found to vary among such demographic characteristics as age, gender, ethnicity, and household income.
For the purposes of this report, lunch is defined as any meal eaten during the middle of the day, usually between the hours of 11 am and 3 pm.
The 2005 report addressed workday lunches only. This report covers all lunchtime eating, with more emphasis on weekday lunches. This report focuses on adult (18+) consumers, although the role of children influencing lunch choices is analyzed in depth.
The analysis in this report focuses primarily on lunches purchased from restaurants, supermarkets, convenience stores, and similar retail vendors of prepared foods. Workplace and school cafeterias are included in the market size data, and general trends with respect to cafeterias are also discussed.
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