The Global HIV/AIDS Market Outlook to 2012

Published by: Business Insights

Published: Jul. 1, 2007 - 143 Pages

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Patient potential

Global market analysis

Pipeline analysis

Competitive landscape

Chapter 1 Patient Potential

Summary

Introduction

HIV/AIDS

Overview

Diagnosis, treatment and management

Epidemiology

The global picture of HIV/AIDS

The seven major markets

Forecast epidemiology

The seven major markets

Emerging markets

Chapter 2 Global HIV market analysis

Summary

Introduction

Market analysis by country

Licensing trends

Market analysis by drug class

Key events in the global HIV market

Combivir loses blockbuster status

FDA approves the first once-daily triple-combination pill for the treatment of

HIV

Fuzeon, the first-in-class fusion inhibitor enters the HIV market, offering an

additional treatment option for patients requiring salvage therapy

Approval of maraviroc

Leading brand dynamics

Leading brands of HIV treatments

Market dynamics of leading nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors

Key NRTI brands

Market dynamics of leading protease inhibitors

Key protease inhibitor brands analysis

Market dynamics of non nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors

Key NNRTI brands analysis

HIV therapeutic market sales forecasts to 2011

Chapter 3 Pipeline analysis

Summary

Introduction

Key trends in R&D

The HIV therapeutic area pipeline

Leading drugs in development

Classification of pipeline products

Entry inhibitors

Maturation inhibitors

Integration inhibitors

New agents from existing classes

Profiles of key pipeline products

Phase II compounds

Bevirimat (PA-457)

Phase III compounds

etravirine (TMC-125)

Isentress (raltegravir)

Recently marketed drugs/drugs in registration

Maraviroc

Prezista (darunavir)

Atripla (efavirenz/ tenofovir/emtricitabine)

Fuzeon (enfuviritide)

Pipeline forecasts

Factors affecting forecasts

HIV pipeline forecasts

Chapter 4 Competitive landscape

Summary

Introduction

Company market shares

GlaxoSmithKline

Overview

Sales focus by drug class

Marketed product portfolio

R&D pipeline analysis

Strategic and growth analysis

Drivers of growth

Resistors of growth

Gilead

Overview

Sales focus by drug class

Marketed product portfolio

R&D pipeline analysis

Strategic and growth analysis

Drivers of growth

Resistors of growth

Bristol-Myers Squibb

Overview

Sales focus by drug class

Marketed product portfolio

R&D pipeline analysis

Strategic and growth analysis

Drivers of growth

Resistors of growth

Abbott

Overview

Sales focus by drug class

Marketed product portfolio

R&D pipeline analysis

Strategic and growth analysis

Drivers of growth

Resistors of growth

Roche

Overview

Sales focus by drug class

Marketed product portfolio

R&D pipeline analysis

Strategic and growth analysis

Drivers of growth

Resistors of growth

Boehringer Ingelheim

Overview

Sales focus by drug class

Marketed product portfolio

R&D pipeline analysis

Strategic and growth analysis

Drivers of growth

Resistors of growth

Pfizer

Overview

Sales focus by drug class

Marketed product portfolio

R&D pipeline analysis

Strategic and growth analysis

Drivers of growth

Resistors of growth

Merck

Overview

Sales focus by drug class

Marketed product portfolio

R&D pipeline analysis

Strategic and growth analysis

Drivers of growth

Resistors of growth

Barr

Overview

Marketed product portfolio

R&D pipeline analysis

Strategic and growth analysis

Drivers of growth

Resistors of growth

Kohl Medical AG

Overview

Sales focus by drug class

Marketed product portfolio

R&D pipeline analysis

Strategic and growth analysis

Drivers of growth

Resistors of growth

Chapter 5 Appendix

Regional country groupings (UNAIDS)

IMS data

J5C HIV

Index

List of Figures

Figure 1.1: The HIV lifecycle

Figure 1.2: Comparison of HIV treatment regimens

Figure 1.3: Drivers of switching from first- to second-line ARV treatment regimens

Figure 1.4: Estimated number of people living with HIV globally, 2005

Figure 1.5: Unmet need for ARV therapy among adults in developing and transitional countries, 2005

Figure 1.6 HIV patient segmentation across the seven major markets, 2005

Figure 2.7: Global HIV/AIDS market share by geography, 2006

Figure 2.8: Sales of types of HIV/AIDS brands, 2005-06

Figure 2.9: Competitive dynamics of the global HIV/AIDS market by drug class, 2006

Figure 2.10: Competitive dynamics of the leading treatments in the global HIV market, 2005-6

Figure 2.11: Competitive dynamics of the leading NRTI brands in the global HIV market, 2005-6

Figure 2.12: Competitive dynamics of the leading protease inhibitor brands in the global HIV market, 2005-06

Figure 2.13: Competitive dynamics of the leading NRTI brands in the global HIV market, 2005-

Figure 3.14: Prevailing R&D approaches, 2006

Figure 3.15: The HIV pipeline by indication and stage of development, 2006

Figure 3.16: Leading recently launched products and late-stage R&D compounds indicated for the treatment of HIV, 2006

Figure 4.17: Competitive dynamics of the leading players in the global HIV market, 2006

Figure 4.18: GSK’s HIV sales, 2006

Figure 4.19: Gilead’s HIV sales, 2006

Figure 4.20: BMS’ HIV sales, 2006

Figure 4.21: Abbott’s HIV sales, 2006

Figure 4.22: Roche’s HIV sales, 2006

Figure 4.23: Boehringer Ingelheim’s HIV sales, 2006

Figure 4.24: Pfizer’s HIV sales, 2006

Figure 4.25: Merck’s HIV sales, 2006

Figure 4.26: Kohl’s HIV sales, 2006

List of Tables

Table 1.1: Estimated prevalence of HIV/AIDS across the seven major markets, 2005

Table 1.2: Forecast epidemiology of HIV/AIDS across the seven major markets, 2005-11

Table 2.3: Breakdown of the global HIV market by drug class, 2002-06

Table 2.4: Leading treatments in the global HIV market,

Table 2.5: Leading NRTI products in the global HIV market, 2005-06

Table 2.6: Leading protease inhibitor products in the global HIV market, 2005-06

Table 2.7: Leading NNRTI products in the global HIV market, 2005-06

Table 2.8: HIV treatment sales forecast, 2006-12

Table 3.9: HIV pipeline forecasts, 2006-12

Table 4.10: Leading players in the global HIV market, 2005-06

Table 4.11: GSK’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06

Table 4.12: GSK’s HIV R&D product pipeline, 2006

Table 4.13: Gilead’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06

Table 4.14: Gilead’s HIV R&D product pipeline, 2006

Table 4.15: BMS’ HIV product portfolio, 2005-06

Table 4.16: BMS’ HIV R&D product pipeline, 2006

Table 4.17: Abbott’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06

Table 4.18: Roche’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06

Table 4.19: Roche’s HIV R&D product pipeline, 2006

Table 4.20: Boehringer Ingelheim’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06

Table 4.21: Boehringer Ingelheim’s HIV R&D product pipeline, 2006

Table 4.22: Pfizer’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06

Table 4.23: Pfizer’s HIV R&D product pipeline, 2006

Table 4.24: Merck’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06

Table 4.25: Merck’s HIV R&D product pipeline, 2006

Table 4.26: Barr’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06

Table 4.27: Kohl’s HIV product portfolio, 2005-06

Abstract

• The HIV market is forecast to expand at a CAGR of 10.3% over the period 2006-12. Growth is forecast to be driven by gains in the launch of new drug classes of drugs such as integrase, entry and maturation inhibitors.
• NRTIs lead the HIV market in 2006 with a market share of 51.5% having captured $4,671m in sales. The key growth driver in this drug class has been the increasing use of fixed-dose NRTI combinations, such as Gilead’s Truvada and GSK’s Combivir.
• The introduction of entry inhibitors in 2003 contributed significantly to the global HIV market, with sales of ‘other’ HIV treatments accruing $405m in 2006, representing a formidable CAGR of 265.7% over the 2002-06 period.
• The NRTI drug class is set to be transformed by patent expiries including BMS’s Videx (didanosine), Roche’s Hivid, and the expected patent expiry of Zerit in July 200 with the influx of generics.
• In 2006, 98.0% of the global HIV market was controlled by the leading ten players. However, GSK’s market leading position is under threat from increasing competition from Gilead and BMS.

• Identify treatment trends and quantify patient potential and sales patterns across the seven major and emerging markets and the 10 leading companies within the global HIV market.
• Benchmark the global HIV competitive landscape with this report’s strategic and growth analysis of market shares, sales focus by drug class, currently marketed products and R&D product portfolios across leading players such as GSK, Gilead, BMS, Abbott, Roche, Boehringer Ingelheim, Pfizer, Merck, Barr and Kohl Medical.
• Discover which HIV drug classes have the greatest potential to provide franchise growth and understand key growth drivers for NRTIs, NNRTIs, protease inhibitors, and entry, integrase and maturation inhibitors.
• Understand the implications of key issues for major pharmaceutical marketers and new product development with this report’s assessment of the latest global HIV market intelligence.

• FDA approval of the first once-daily triple-combination pill for the treatment of HIV. Atripla seem poised to redefine and expand the HIV market, surfacing as the new gold standard for first-line treatment with sales increasing by 101% from Q3 to Q4 in 2006.
• Entry of new drug classes redefining the HIV market. The forecast launch of integrase inhibitors, entry inhibitors and maturation inhibitors reflects the shifting demographics of HIV, the increasing resistance to current therapies and unmet patient needs.
• Potent new protease inhibitors offering additional treatment options in treatment-experienced patients. Approximately 42% of patients have demonstrated resistance to PIs, the availability of two new protease inhibitors offers additional treatment options.
• Trimeris/Roche's Fuzeon, the first-in-class fusion inhibitor entering the HIV market, offering an additional treatment option for patients requiring salvage therapy. Fuzeon has become the preferred agent for heavily treatment-experienced patients who require a therapy change.

• How much growth will be achieved by the global HIV market over the period 2006-2012?
• What will be the major growth drivers in the HIV market area over the period 2006-12?
• How have recent launches from companies such as Roche, Gilead and BMS performed?
• Which companies are best positioned to succeed in the global HIV market over the period 2006-12?
• What are the most exciting compounds currently in development for HIV, and what is the forecast market potential of these products?
• How significant is the threat of generics to the overall performance of the global HIV market?
• What will the competitive landscape within the global HIV market look like in 2012?

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