Diabetes Drug Discoveries: What the Future Holds : Market Research Report

Diabetes Drug Discoveries: What the Future Holds

Published by: Espicom Healthcare Intelligence

Published: Jan. 26, 2007 - 128 Pages

Foreword
Executive summary
What is diabetes
A global problem: Where in the world?; The economic burden
Unhealthy lifestyles; a worrying trend: Additional health risks for young people
The diabetes therapy market
Diabetes management
Current treatment options: Insulin; Metformin; Sulphonylureas; Thiazolidinediones; Glinides; Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors; Amylin agonists; GLP-1 agonists; DPP-IV inhibitors
What’s in the pipeline?: Further development of launched products; Potential new drugs
Competitor ratio analysis
Insulin and insulin analogues: Humulin (insulin human [rDNA origin]); Humalog (insulin lispro); Lantus (insulin glargine); Apidra (insulin glulisine [rDNA origin])
Novo Nordisk’s insulin analogues: Sales forecast
Levemir (insulin detemir): Clinical trial resu43
NovoRapid/NovoLog (insulin aspart [rDNA origin]): Clinical trial resu51
AERx iDMS (NN1998): Sales forecast and assumptions; Competitor ratio analysis; Clinical trial results
AIR Insulin System: Clinical trial resu58
Technosphere Insulin: Clinical trial resu61
Oral-lyn
Metformin and sulphonylureas: Glucophage (metformin); Amaryl (glimepiride)
Thiazolidinediones: Avandia (rosiglitazone); Actos (pioglitazone); Patent challenges/generic competition
GLP-1 agonists: Byetta (exenatide); Clinical trial results
Liraglutide: Sales forecast and assumptions; Competitor ratio analysis; Clinical trial results
AVE0010: Sales forecast and assumptions; Competitor ratio analysis
DPP-IV inhibitors: Januvia (sitagliptin); Sales forecast and assumptions; Competitor ratio analysis; Clinical trial results
Galvus (vildagliptin): Sales forecast and assumptions; Competitor ratio analysis; Clinical trial results
Saxagliptin: Sales forecast and assumptions; Competitor ratio analysis
Cannabinoid type 1 blockers: Acomplia (rimonabant); Sales forecast and assumptions; Competitor ratio analysis; Clinical trial results
Towards greater understanding; a future cure?: Advances in islet transplantation therapy; Key to insulin metabolism discovered?; New research shows immune response spreads from one protein to another in Type I diabetes; Beta cell regeneration; Researchers find enzymatic regulator of insulin pathways; Insulin-making protein identified in beta cells; TCF7L2 polymorphisms linked to progression of Type II diabetes; Insulin signalling defects linked to lipid metabolism; Potential cure for recent-onset Type I diabetes?; Encouraging preliminary results from animal pancreatic xenotransplantation studies
SOURCES
Espicom sources
Others
List of Tables: Prevalence of diabetes worldwide by region, 2000-2030 (000s); Prevalence of diabetes in top 25 countries, 2000-2030 (000s); Leading insulins and insulin analogues by sales value, 2004-2005 (US$ million); Thiazolidinedione sales, 2004-2005 (US$ million); Launched products in development; Novel drugs in development; Competitor ratio analysis summary; Humulin sales, 2001-2005 (US$ million); Humalog sales, 2001-2005 (US$ million); Lantus sales, 2001-2005 (EUR million & US$ million); Novo Nordisk insulin analogue sales, 2001-2005 (DKr million & US$ million); Glucophage sales, 2001-2005 (US$ million); FDA ANDA approvals for generic Glucophage; FDA ANDA approvals for generic Glucophage XR; FDA ANDA approvals for generic Glucovance; Amaryl sales, 2001-2005 (EUR million & US$ million); FDA ANDA approvals for Glimepiride; Avandia family sales, 2001-2005 (£ million and US$ million); Actos sales, 2002-2006 (¥ billion and US$ million)
List of Figures: Diabetes in the top ten countries, 2000; Diabetes in the top ten countries, 2030; UK diabetes therapy market, 2005 (%); Novel drugs in clinical development by activity; Humulin projected sales, 2005-2012 (US$ million); Humalog projected sales, 2005-2011 (US$ million); Lantus projected sales, 2005-2011 (US$ million); Apidra projected sales, 2006-2011 (US$ million); Levemir/NovoLog projected sales, 2005-2011 (US$ million); Exubera projected sales, 2006-2011 (US$ million); AERx iDMS projected sales, 2009-2014 (US$ million); Glucophage family projected sales, 2006-2011 (US$ million); Amaryl projected sales, 2005-2011 (US$ million); Avandia family projected sales, 2005-2011 (US$ million); Actos projected sales, 2005-2011 (US$ million); Byetta projected sales, 2005-2011 (US$ million); Liraglutide projected sales, 2009-2014 (US$ million); AVE0010 projected sales, 2009-2014 (US$ million); Januvia projected sales, 2007-2012 (US$ million); Galvus projected sales, 2007-2012 (US$ million); Saxagliptin projected sales, 2008-2013 (US$ million); Acomplia projected sales, 2007-2012 (US$ million)

Abstract

The diabetes market will grow significantly over the next 5 years to US$31.4 billion - who are the companies and what are the market trends and products that will drive growth?

This report will tell you!

A growing and valuable market There are a number of drivers in the diabetes market that are fuelling growth:

Product innovation
New classes of drugs such as GLP-l agonists and DPP-lV inhibitors have already been launched and the pipeline is well stocked. Combination therapies will play their part in the future as will novel drug delivery technology.

Emerging markets = rapid growth Some of the fastest growing markets for diabetes are in emerging economies - India, China and Indonesia are in the top 5 for disease prevalence. The impact for both branded and generic drugs is considerable.

Unmet clinical need will keep developed markets strong While the number of patients diagnosed has gone up it is estimated millions are still to be identified. In the UK alone, it is estimated that up to a million Type II sufferers are undiagnosed.

Strong annual growth expected for the next five years With many new products yet to realise their full potential, and the high incidence of Type II diabetes expected in emerging markets, prospects for the sector look strong. Estimated at US$22 billion in 2007, it is forecast to grow to US$31.4 billion by 2011, with generics performing strongly as time moves on.

THIS REPORT ANSWERS KEY QUESTIONS What revenue is Pfizer’s novel Exubera forecast to achieve by 2011 in the hotly-contested insulin market?

What are the strengths and weaknesses of Merck & Co’s Januvia and Novartis’ Galvus in the new DDP-IV inhibitor sector?

Which markets are showing the highest growth in terms of disease prevalence?

What impact might combination therapies have in the future?

How well will Bristol-Myers Squibb and Merck KgaA be able to protect future Glucophage (metformin) revenues from generic competition?

CURRENT TREATMENT OPTIONS

Insulin
Metformin
Sulphonylureas
Thiazolidinediones
Glinides
Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors
Amylin agonists
GLP-l agonists
DPP-lV inhibitors

OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED THERAPIES TO 2011
Insulin and insulin analogues
Humulin (Eli Lilly)
Humalog (Eli Lilly)
Novolin, Velosulin etc (Novo Nordisk)
Lantus (sanofi-aventis)
Levemir (Novo Nordisk)
NovoRapid/NovoLog (Novo Nordisk)
Apidra (sanofi-aventis)
Exubera (Pfizer)
AERx iDMS (Novo Nordisk/Aradigm)
Metformin and sulphonylureas
Glucophage (BMS/Merck)
Amaryl (sanofi-aventis)
Thiazolidinediones
Avandia (GSK)
Actos (Takeda)
GLP-l agonists
Byetta (Eli Lilly)
Liraglutide (Novo Nordisk)
AVE0010 (sanofi-aventis)
DPP-IV inhibitors
Januvia (Merck & Co)
Galvus (Novartis)
saxagliptin (BMS/AstraZeneca)
Cannabinoid Type I receptor blockers
Acomplia (sanofi-aventis)

NOVEL COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS PUTS PRODUCTS INTO A WIDER MARKET CONTEXT
For a number of new and future drugs, Espicom has provided a competitor ratio analysis, based on our assessment of the following five criteria:

Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action;
Proof of concept/clinical data;
Management expertise;
Competition within the marketplace;
Risks associated with drug development in therapeutic class.

Each of these criteria attracts a maximum of ten points, resulting in a maximum score of 50 overall and allowing you to compare and contrast the prospects for each product.

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Diabetes Drug Discoveries: What the Future Holds

Table of Contents

Abstract