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Thailand Country Risk ReportPublished by: Condor Advisers Inc. Published: Mar. 23, 2007 - 13 Pages Table of ContentsSUMMARY 1 GEOPOLITICAL RISK 3 Foreign Influence Unmistakable 3 Escalation And Civil War 4 POLITICAL AND SOCIAL RISKS 5 Silken Coup By Name Only 5 Social Unrest Turning Violent 6 ECONOMIC GROWTH RISK 7 Consumption And Inflation 7 Investment, Exports And Production 8 EXCHANGE RATE AND ASSET PRICE RISKS 9 The Current Account And Foreign Investment 9 External Debt And Reserves 10 STATISTICAL APPENDIX 11 AbstractThe rapidly escalating Muslim insurgency in southern Thailand is being strongly influenced by external forces. Weak intelligence and failing government policies suggest that this insurgency will intensify greatly over the next 12 months. An Iraq-style civil war, pitting Muslims against Buddhists in southern Thailand is already unfolding. As sectarian violence escalates, major terrorist attacks in and around Bangkok will become increasingly frequent. Thailand’s 2006 military coup has done little to stabilize the country’s political environment. Governance remains very weak and is likely to deteriorate further in 2007. Efforts by the military regime to tighten its grip on the political system could trigger renewed social unrest. This unrest may become very violent. Growing geopolitical, political and social instability have greatly weakened private demand. Escalating instability, combined with rapidly slowing U.S. economic growth, will push Thailand’s economy into recession during the second half of 2007. This recession will deepen in 2008. The current account is expected to fall into deficit by 2008, as instability reduces tourism revenue. Instability will also trigger foreign and domestic capital flight, making it difficult for Thai companies to rollover maturing short-term external debt. Capital and credit flight will provoke baht depreciation and falling asset prices through 2008.Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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