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Pakistan Food and Drink Report Q1 2007

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Mar. 1, 2007 - 64 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary

Chapter 1 - Business Environment

Retail Business Environment Rankings

Table: Asia Pacific Business Environment Rankings

SWOT

Pakistan Food & Drink Industry SWOT

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: GDP And Population

Chapter 2 - Retail

Regional Overview: Multinational Retailers In The Asia Pacific Region

Table: Leading Mass Grocery Retailers In The Asia Pacific Region, 2006

Table: Presence Of Selected Multinationals In The Asia Pacific Region

Table: Asia Pacific Sales Of Leading Global Multinationals, Financial-Year 2006

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Pakistan Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts

Company Developments

Market Overview

Table: Structure of Pakistan Mass Grocery Retail Market by Number of Outlets

Table: Structure of Pakistan's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales by Format (US$mn)

Table: Average Annual Outlet Sales by Format (US$mn) - 2006 estimate

Chapter 3 - Food & Drink

Regional Overview: Coffee Industry In Asia Pacific

Table: Production Of Coffee Exporting Countries In The Asia Pacific Region ('000 bags), Crop Year 2005/2006

Table: Coffee Exports In Selected Asia Pacific Markets, Crop Year 2005/2006 (60kg bags)

Table: Coffee Sales In Selected Asia Pacific Markets, Historical Data And Forecasts (US$mn)

Table: Coffee Imports In Selected Asia Pacific Markets, 2004

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Pakistan Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts

Industry Developments

Company Developments

Market Overview

Table: Pakistan Agricultural Sub-Sector Production

Table: Pakistan Organic Agricultural Production - 2004

Chapter 4 - Tobacco

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Cigarette Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts

Industry Developments

Company Developments

Market Overview

Chapter 5 - Competitive Landscape

Key Players

Table: Key Players Pakistan Mass Grocery Retail Sector - 2006 Annual Sales Estimates

Table: Key Players: Pakistan Food & Drink Sector - 2005 Sales

Regional Company Case Studies

Carrefour In Asia Pacific

Table: Store Network By Format And Region, As At Year-End 2006

Table: Carrefour Group Financial Result

Danone In Asia Pacific

Table: Danone Financial-Year 2005 Financial Results

Table: Danone In Asia Pacific Region

Wal-Mart In Asia Pacific

Table: Wal-Mart In Financial-Year 2006 (ending January 31 2006)

Table: Wal-Mart In China

Table: Wal-Mart In Japan (Seiyu)

Table: Wal-Mart Planned Store Openings For Financial-Year 2008 (commencing February 1 2007)

Company Analysis

Tapal Tea

Utility Stores Corporation

Coca-Cola Beverages Pakistan Ltd

Nestlé Pakistan

Unilever Pakistan

Unilever Pakistan Foods Ltd (Rafhan Best Foods Ltd)

BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Retail Industry

Sources

Abstract

While Pakistan remains at the foot of BMI’s Retail Business Environment Rankings, marking it out as one of the Asia Pacific region’s least attractive investment opportunities for the eighth consecutive quarter, it seems astonishing that it should also have opened the world’s largest milk-processing plant this quarter, backed by Swiss food and beverage giant Nestlé. In our newly published Q107 Pakistan Food & Drink Report, BMI examines how the country has managed to attract a project of this scale and what implications it might have for the short-term future of the country’s food and beverage industries.

Nestlé’s 2mn litre-a-day Lahore facility is just one facet of its US$371mn 10-year investment plan for Pakistan. The multinational, along with Dutch major Unilever and US soft drinks giants Coca-Cola and PepsiCo have been among those willing to take the risks associated with investment in Pakistan - low consumer spending and a challenging business environment among them - in pursuit of the moderate short-term gains. Nestlé, however, has gone one step further and has almost formed a mutually beneficial relationship with Pakistan’s economy. Not only do projects of this nature - notably largely absent from our Food & Drink Company Developments chapter in most quarters - contribute enormously to job creation, Nestlé has also enacted a high profile Corporate Social Responsibility programme aimed at providing assistance to the country’s most disadvantaged groups and, less altruistically of course, building its brand beyond those limited areas in which its consumer goods have exposure.

An expansion-driven, brand-building Nestlé evidently benefits Pakistan’s rural communities, especially its milk farmers who have edged away from their peers in other agricultural sub-sectors due to the level of foreign investment, and accordant government interest, the dairy industry has received. But, what does it mean for the food and drink industry on the whole? Nestlé’s change of its name from Nestlé Milkpak to Nestlé Pakistan demonstrated that it was not in Pakistan solely for the milk trade. Unilever would be right in thinking that its own dominance of the small but growing packaged and branded foods sector could soon be jeopardised by Nestlé’s thirst for diversification, while Coca-Cola and PepsiCo will also be keeping a close eye on any of the Swiss firm’s future forays into the soft drinks sector.

However, Nestlé’s continued emergence can only be good for industry growth, and subsequently for both consumers and retailers. A more dynamic and competitive industry will force prices down and marketing expenditure up, thus driving consumer interest in a highly price sensitive market. BMI’s five-year forecast for Pakistan’s soft drinks industry ably demonstrates this. We are forecasting volume sales growth of 30.6% to 2011, but value sales growth of just 14.6% over the same period, due to an early focus from manufacturers on shifting volumes to the detriment of value sales. As consumer interest in branded food and beverage goods grow, retailers will spot a stronger opportunity in retailing not just essential items, but a broader range of products, and this sector will too be stimulated.

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