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Pipeline Insight: Hematological Malignancies - Pursuit for the next blockbuster intensifies

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: Mar. 30, 2007 - 374 Pages


Table of Contents


CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Scope of the analysis

Datamonitor insight into the hematological malignancies market

Key metrics

Datamonitor pipeline assessment summary



CHAPTER 2 PIPELINE OVERVIEW AND DYNAMICS

Pipeline overview

Products in late-phase development for hematological malignancies

Products in Phase II development for hematological malignancies

Products in Phase I development for hematological malignancies

Pipeline by developmental phase and class

There are 180 different products in the clinical developmental pipeline for hematological malignancies

Segmentation of products by developmental phase reflects high attrition rate in oncology drug development

Segmentation of products by class reflects shift in oncology drug development away from cytotoxics

Pipeline by indication

Over 50% of the pipeline products are being investigated in leukemia

The 22 late-phase pipeline products target eight different hematological malignancies

Pipeline by company

Developmental pipeline dominated by small pharma/biotech players

Only 17 (12%) companies/institutes have more than two candidates in the developmental pipeline for hematological malignancies

Novartis has six candidates in clinical development

Biogen Idec draws on the success of Rituxan



CHAPTER 3 HEMATOLOGICAL MALIGNANCIES - MARKET POTENTIAL

A diverse range of disease subtypes

Genetic basis of cancer evolution

Tumorigenesis is the result of co-operative accumulated mutations

Existing pharmacotherapy approaches provide limited treatment benefit

Cytotoxic drugs lack specificity

Hormonal or endocrine therapy provides incremental benefit in selected tumors

Optimizing current treatment strategies is paramount

The emergence of targeted treatment heralds a revolution in cancer pharmacotherapy

Dynamic cancer market offers significant commercial opportunity

Ongoing sales growth drives the market

Intensive R&D produces a rich developmental pipeline

Epidemiology - Hematological Malignancies

Cancer epidemiology - an expanding patient base

Leukemia

Lymphoma

Multiple myeloma

Myelodysplastic syndrome

Disproportionate increase in prevalence results from improvements in diagnosis and treatment

Significant areas of unmet need persist

The need for more sophisticated pharmacotherapy

Long-term control of advanced tumors is suboptimal

Novel strategies required to reduce relapse rates in early-stage disease

Toxicity of existing treatments jeopardizes quality of life and rates of treatment uptake

Improvements in diagnostics and prognostic analysis will enhance cost-effectiveness of treatment

Enhanced preventative strategies will ease the disease burden

Clinical and strategic threats to the commercialization of cancer drugs

Progressively rising R&D costs threaten industry productivity

High attrition rates can be mitigated by improved strategic decision-making

Lengthening drug approval process - a consequence of increased regulatory demands

Pharmacoeconomic pressures drive payers to implement restrictive pricing and reimbursement policies

Therapeutic and generic competition reduces periods of market exclusivity

Segmentation of market will require changes in clinical trial methodology



CHAPTER 4 R&D APPROACH

Classification of pipeline products

Molecular targeted therapies

Angiogenesis inhibitors

Single-target signal transduction inhibitors

Multi-targeted inhibitors

Cell cycle and apoptosis targeted inhibitors

Epigenetic modulators

Cytotoxic Therapies

Antimetabolites

Mitotic inhibitors

DNA-interactive chemotherapeutic agents

Immunotherapeutic agents

Antibody-based technologies are an effective anticancer approach

Active, specific immunotherapy

Evolution in oncology clinical trial design

Patient selection is increasingly significant in the era of targeted treatment

Clinical trials must have sufficient follow-up to establish true clinical benefit

Diversity of targeted treatments will require an evolution in clinical trial design

Most oncology clinical trials designate multiple endpoints

Survival

Quality of life

Tumor response rates

Toxicity

Time to tumor progression

Modification of accelerated approval process may impact significantly on approval times for hematologic oncology drugs



CHAPTER 5 MOLECULAR TARGETED THERAPIES ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS

Overview of molecular targeted therapies for hematological malignancies

Pipeline summary

Late-phase pipeline of molecular targeted therapies

Phase II pipeline of molecular targeted therapies

Phase I pipeline of molecular targeted therapies

Comparative forecasts

Definition of current comparator therapy

Novartis's Gleevec/Glivec (imatinib)

Tasigna (Nilotinib, AMN-107; Novartis)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Tasigna enters preregistration in the US and EU for Gleevec-resistant CML

Promising Phase II interim data reported

Tasigna appears effective in CML patients who have failed or are intolerant to both Gleevec and Sprycel

Only one BCR-ABL mutation is insensitive to Tasigna

Datamonitor comments

Tasigna ready to challenge Bristol-Myers Squibb's already approved Sprycel

Novartis looking to expand its leading role in the CML therapy market

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Ceflatonin (Myelostat; ChemGenex Pharmaceuticals)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Ceflatonin receives Fast Track status for chronic myeloid leukemia

Ceflatonin aims to restore Gleevec sensitivity in CML patients

ChemGenex looking to expand Ceflatonin into the AML/APL market

Datamonitor comments

Despite convincing clinical benefit, Ceflatonin will face strong competition from Bristol-Myers Squibb's Sprycel and Novartis's Tasigna

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Sarasar (Lonafarnib; Schering-Plough)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Main focus of Sarasar development in MDS, where greatest antitumor activity is shown

Farnesyl transferase inhibitors predominately in hematological disorders

Mild toxicity in the majority of patients, although grade 3 events do occur

Datamonitor comments

Sarasar's chances for approval will be delayed beyond 2007

Sarasar racing against Johnson & Johnson's Zarnestra as the first farnesyl transferase inhibitor to reach the market

Presence in oncology market will aid commercialization of Sarasar

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Torisel (Temsirolimus; Wyeth)

Drug overview

Torisel inhibits a key pathway in tumor cell proliferation

Clinical trial data

Torisel showing promise in mantle cell lymphoma

Torisel also making headway in other NHL subtypes

Datamonitor comments

Torisel will have to face Velcade in the MCL market

Prior commercialization of Mylotarg and Neumega will provide Wyeth with valuable insight into the oncology market

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Zarnestra (Tipifarnib; Janssen/Johnson & Johnson)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Following rejection of NDA, the FDA requires Phase III data for Zarnestra in AML before regulatory approval can be considered

Results from Phase III studies have yet to be announced

Zarnestra has demonstrated a favorable profile in a variety of Phase II studies

Single-agent Zarnestra demonstrates antitumor activity in relapsed/refractory aggressive NHL

Zarnestra holding promise in juvenile myelomonocytic leukemia

Initiation of Phase II trials in large granular lymphocyte leukemia and multiple myeloma

Mild toxicity is particularly significant since Zarnestra's main indication is for elderly AML patients where quality of life is a major issue

Datamonitor comments

Schering-Plough's Sarasar catching up with Zarnestra as the first farnesyl transferase inhibitor to reach the market

Johnson & Johnson limiting Zarnestra's target population in the short term

Johnson & Johnson's experience will be invaluable to Zarnestra

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Alvocidib (Flavopiridol; Sanofi-Aventis)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Continuous infusion dosing schedules fail to demonstrate clinical activity

Modified dosing regimen drives further development in CLL

Datamonitor comments

Given alvocidib's checkered history, Sanofi-Aventis may face an uphill struggle communicating the drug's potential

Alvocidib may show more promise as part of a combination regimen

Presence in oncology field will aid commercialization of alvocidib

Enzastaurin (LY317615; Eli Lilly)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Enzastaurin looking to make its mark in the B-Cell Lymphoma market

Enzastaurin holding promise as a maintenance therapy in mantle cell lymphoma

Datamonitor comments

Eli Lilly adopt a risky stragtegy for enzastaurin in DLBCL

Termination of Phase III trial for enzastaurin in glioma may hamper its potential in other indications

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Lestaurtinib (CEP-701; Cephalon)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Lestaurtinib emerging as a promising agent for AML patients harboring Flt-3 activating mutations

Datamonitor comments

Lestaurtinib may be the first in its class to reach the market

Cephalon's recent acquisition of Trisenox will provide invaluable experience of the leukemia market

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Genasense (Oblimersen; Genta)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

FDA reject Genasense for use in combination with chemotherapy in CLL

Early-phase benefits of Genasense in AML require confirmation in Phase III clinical trial

Disappointing Phase III trial results in multiple myeloma means status of further development is unclear

Promise shown in combination with Rituxan in NHL, but randomized trials have yet to be initiated

Datamonitor comments

Approval of Genasense is looking increasingly unlikely

Termination of agreement with Sanofi-Aventis is a major setback for Genta

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary



CHAPTER 6 CYTOTOXIC THERAPIES ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS

Overview of cytotoxic therapies for hematological malignancies

Pipeline summary

Late-phase pipeline of cytotoxic therapies

Phase II pipeline of cytotoxic therapies

Phase I pipeline of cytotoxic therapies

Comparative forecasts

Clolar/Evoltra (Clofarabine; Genzyme/Bioenvision)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

FDA and EMEA approve Clolar for ALL but further data in AML are required

Clolar and cytarabine appears to be an active and well tolerated regimen for elderly AML patients for which a Phase III trial has recently been initiated

Single-agent Clolar may provide an important treatment option for AML patients with adverse cytogenetics who are unsuitable for standard chemotherapy

Despite further data now required for approval, Clolar demonstrates activity in pediatric AML

Datamonitor comments

While approval in AML will significantly broaden Clolar's label, increased economic constraints on healthcare systems may restrict its uptake

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Dacogen (decitabine; MGI Pharma)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Elderly AML is an attractive indication for horizontal expansion of Dacogen

Dacogen as a maintenance therapy in AML

Dacogen plus Zolinza may be an effective combination 227

Datamonitor comments

Dacogen would fulfill a high unmet need in unfavorable risk AML

Dacogen may face competition from Vidaza, another approved DNA demethylating agent in development for AML

Dacogen will compete with Mylotarg in the relapsed elderly AML market

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Cloretazine (VNP40101M; Vion Pharmaceuticals)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Cloretazine will enjoy the advantages of Orphan Drug and Fast Track status for AML

Cloretazine and cytarabine appears a feasible combination for second-line AML

Single agent Cloretazine appears effective in elderly poor risk AML

High-risk MDS patients may also benefit from Cloretazine monotherapy

Cloretazine and Temodar in hematological malignancies appears to be a rational combination

Vion discontinues Cloretazine development in CLL to focus on AML

Datamonitor comments

Given persistent high unmet needs and the lack of a gold-standard in relapsed/refractory AML, Cloretazine demonstrates promise

Vion should seek a collaborative agreement with a more experienced oncology partner

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Pixantrone (BBR-2778; Cell Therapeutics)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Use of pixantrone for aggressive NHL

Use of pixantrone for indolent NHL

Datamonitor comments

Problems associated with trying to replace genericized drugs must be overcome

Patient recruitment to trials and physician awareness may be an uphill struggle

Pixantrone set to benefit from co-licensing agreement with Novartis

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Marqibo (Sphingosomal vincristine; Hana Biosciences)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Despite an FDA non-approvable letter and recommendation to initiate a Phase III study in NHL, to date no such trial has been initiated

Relapsed aggressive NHL

Marqibo as a replacement for vincristine in the R-CHOP regimen for first-line NHL appears to be a promising possibility

Marqibo is a potential candidate for the treatment of relapsed/refractory Hodgkin's disease

Trials in ALL may hold promise for Marqibo

Datamonitor comments

Hana Biosciences face a difficult strategic development plan for Marqibo in NHL and shifting the focus to ALL may offer a quicker route to market



CHAPTER 7 IMMUNOTHERAPEUTIC AGENTS ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS

Overview of immunotherapeutic agents for hematological malignancies

Pipeline summary

Late-phase pipeline of immunotherapeutic agents

Phase II pipeline of immunotherapeutic agents

Phase I pipeline of immunotherapeutic agents

Comparative forecasts

Definition of current comparator therapy

Biogen Idec/Genentech/Roche's Rituxan/MabThera (rituximab)

Ceplene (Histamine dihydrochloride; Epicept)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Ceplene enters preregistration in Europe as a maintenance therapy in first remission in patients with AML

Ceplene plus IL-2 prolongs leukemia-free survival but no significant difference in overall survival observed

Datamonitor comments

FDA requests additional Phase III trial despite primary endpoints being met

EpiCept's lack of oncology experience may hamper Ceplene's market success

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Galiximab (Anti-CD80 MAb; Biogen Idec)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Randomized Phase III trial will compare survival of galiximab plus Rituxan with Rituxan alone in relapsed/refractory follicular NHL patients

Phase II results show galiximab and Rituxan can be safely combined and can produce promising response rates in follicular NHL patients

Datamonitor comments

Biogen Idec in a strong position to successfully market galiximab alone

Biogen-Idec will need to effectively demonstrate the value of a combination of galiximab and Rituxan to payers

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Lumiliximab (Anti-CD23 MAb; Biogen Idec)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Lumiliximab receives Fast Track and Orphan Drug designation for relapsed CLL

The addition of lumiliximab to the FCR regimen may produce a higher response rate without additional toxicity

Datamonitor comments

Lumiliximab on course to become an established addition to the standard treatment for CLL

Biogen Idec should look to investigate Lumiliximab as a maintenance therapy

Cluster of Differentiation (CD) drugs have become Biogen Idec's specialty

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Ofatumumab (HuMax-CD20; Genmab/GlaxoSmithKline)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Genmab hoping ofatumumab will demonstrate a preferred efficacy profile over Rituxan in the clinic

Ofatumumab receives Fast Track status for CLL and enters a Phase III trial

Genmab initiate a pivotal Phase III trial in follicular NHL

Datamonitor comments

Ofatumumab may offer hope for Rituxan-insensitive patients

Approval of other MAbs being developed by Biogen Idec for NHL and CLL may restrict ofatumumab's potential even further

GlaxoSmithKline will offer invaluable experience to Genmab and aid commercialization of ofatumumab

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Zanolimumab (HuMax-CD4; Merck Serono/Genmab)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

Zanolimumab's Orphan Drug and Fast Track status reflects the high unmet needs in CTCL

Zanolimumab may also hold promise for PTCL patients

Datamonitor comments

The T-cell lymphoma market offers zanolimumab a limited commercial potential

Depletion of CD4+ T-cells by zanolimumab may render the patient susceptible to opportunistic infections

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

BIOVAXID (Accentia Biopharmaceuticals)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

BIOVAXID inches closer to approval in the US and European markets for follicular NHL

Phase III trial initiated in February 2000 is ongoing and continues to show favorable survival benefits of BIOVAXID

Possible association between a specific negative chromasomal translocation following vaccination and disease free survival in follicular NHL

Phase II results of BIOVAXID in mantle cell lymphoma are promising

Datamonitor comments

BIOVAXID competing with FavId and MyVax for first-to-market status

BIOVAXID's price-tag should reflect the anticipated competition and current treatment costs

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

FavId (Id-KLH; Favrille)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

FavId receives Fast Track status by the FDA for follicular NHL

Single-agent FavId demonstrates an objective response in indolent B-cell NHL

Favrille initiates FavId Phase III trial in DLBCL NHL

Datamonitor comments

FavId competing with BIOVAXID and MyVax to reach the market first

Favrille's lack of commercial experience will be a barrier to optimizing market penetration

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

MyVax (GTOP-99; Genitope)

Drug overview

Clinical trial data

MyVax received Fast Track status for follicular NHL while Phase III clinical trial approaches completion

Phase II clinical trials show greater number of immune responses among previously untreated patients

Genitope initiates Phase I/II trial for MyVax in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Follow-up Phase II data of MyVax in mantle cell and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma warrants further investigation

Datamonitor comments

Despite competition from BIOVAXID and FavId, MyVax increases its commercial potential by targeting an earlier stage treatment

With trials ongoing in CLL, MyVax may ultimately emerge as the most adaptable anti-idiotype vaccine

Forecasts to 2016

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Comparison of anti-idiotype vaccines



APPENDIX

List of tables

List of figures

Methodology

Datamonitor forecast methodology

Datamonitor drug assessment summary

Abbreviations

Contributing experts

Key opinion leader interview transcripts

Bibliography

About Datamonitor

About Datamonitor Healthcare

Datamonitor Healthcare's therapy area capabilities

About the Disease analysis team

Disclaimer

Abstract

Introduction

Unmet needs across the hematological malignancies remain high, with most traditional therapies conferring low levels of specificity and high toxicity. Pipeline candidates classified as molecular targeted therapies, cytotoxic therapies and immunotherapeutic agents, may offer attractive therapeutic additions and Datamonitor's insight into their clinical and commercial potential is provided.

Scope

Research and analysis of the hematological malignancies pipeline with in-depth clinical and commercial assessment of Phase III candidates Seven major pharmaceutical market sales forecasts to 2016 for key pipeline candidates incorporating product specific assumptions and events Segmentation and examination of product pipeline by developmental phase, class, indication and developer Insight and analysis of the hematological malignancies market potential including commercial opportunity and disease epidemiology

Highlights

180 different pipeline candidates have been identified of which 22 are in late-phase development. These existing candidates have a forecast sales potential of up to $3.61 billion in the seven major pharmaceutical markets by 2016. Agents holding strong commercial potential include Novartis' Gleevec-follow-on, Tasigna (nilotinib), and Genzyme's already approved purine analog Clolar (clofarabine) which is in development for acute myeloid leukemia. Other notable candidates include the anti-idiotype therapeutic vaccines and Biogen Idec's anti-CD23 MAb, lumiliximab. Over 50% of the products are being investigated in acute and/or chronic leukemia. However, as an individual hematological subtype, NHL attracts the greatest attention from developers with 53 (29%) products in the pipeline despite the malignancy being comparatively well served by existing treatment regimens.

Reasons to Purchase

Acquire a detailed appreciation and impartial perspective of the entire hematological malignancies developmental pipeline Identify the key products in late-phase development based on sales forecasts to 2016 and Datamonitor's drug assessment methodology Consider, assess and react to opportunities and risks influencing the future potential of products in the hematological malignancies pipeline

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