Social Hubs - Ireland

Published by: Mintel International Group Ltd.

Published: Jan. 1, 2007 - 97 Pages

Table of Contents

Introduction

Definitions

The lifestage approach

Regional definitions

Conversion factors

Exchange rate

Population 2005

BMRB Target Group Index (TGI) sample sizes

Abbreviations

Market in Brief

Socialising out of the home

In layman’s terms

Social hubs all compete for the same customer…

…and are invading each other’s territory

Pub is the main hub

Restaurant service heating up

Double helping of cream and sugar for coffee shops

Threats to all hubs

Opportunities for all hubs

Internal Market Environment

Use of social hubs

Figure 1: Usage of pubs, coffee shops and restaurants, NI and RoI, 2002-06

What do coffee shops offer that pubs don't?

Alcohol as a part of the social culture…

…yet alcohol consumption is in decline

Figure 2: Per capita consumption (18+) of alcoholic beverages, on-trade and off-trade, NI and RoI, 2000-05

Growth in evening trade for coffee shops

Growth in fine dining

Changing attitudes towards leisure and socialising

Declining interest in a night at the pub

Figure 3: Agreement with ‘I really enjoy a night out at the pub’, NI and RoI, 2001-06

Growth in in-home leisure

Figure 4: Agreement with ‘I prefer to spend a quiet evening at home than go out’, NI and RoI, 2002-06

Figure 5: Agreement with ‘I enjoy entertaining people at home’, NI and RoI, 2001-06

Figure 6: Agreement with ‘Most of my drinking is done at home’, NI and RoI, 2001-06

Is in-home leisure a threat to all social hubs?

Are social hubs’ USPs being eroded?

Broader Market Environment

Economy and leisure expenditure

Figure 7: Health of the economy, NI and RoI, 2002-07

Figure 8: Indexed leisure expenditure and total retail expenditure, NI and RoI, 2002-05

Leisure spend outpacing retail spend

Economic growth not spread equally

Experiential leisure options

Population changes

Figure 9: Population change, by age group, NI, 2000-20

Figure 10: Population change, by age group, RoI, 2000-20

Long-term responsibilities and leisure time

Figure 11: Average age at marriage, men and women, NI and RoI, 2000-05

Figure 12: Average age of women at birth of first child, NI and RoI, 1991-2005

More leisure time for pre-/no family adults

More income for families should benefit restaurants…

…but parental life lasts longer

A growing family market

Figure 13: Growth in number of households with children, RoI and NI, 2000-06

Market Size and Forecast

Continued growth expected

Figure 14: Indexed market size and forecast of total out-of-home dining/socialising spend, NI and RoI, 2000-11

Overall trends

Figure 15: Market size and forecast of total out-of-home dining/socialising spend, NI, ROI and all Ireland, 2000-11

Average consumer spend

Market forecast

Segment Performance

Pubs are the dominant hub

Figure 16: Market share of social hubs, by segment, NI and RoI, 2005

Pub sales

Figure 17: Market size and forecast of pub food and drink sales, NI, ROI and all Ireland, 2000-11

Overall trends

Alcohol sales stagnate

Pub food sales increase

Below-inflation growth for pubs forecast

Restaurant sales

Figure 18: Market size and forecast of food and alcohol sales in restaurants, NI, ROI and all Ireland, 2000-11

Overall trends

Growth promoted by:

Continued positive growth forecast for restaurants

Coffee shops

Figure 19: Market size and forecast of sales from coffee shops, NI, ROI and all Ireland, 2000-11

Overall trends

Branded coffee shops achieved more success

An urban phenomenon?

Coffee shops forecast 6% average annual growth

The Supply Structure

Figure 23: Number of social hubs in NI and RoI, 2006

Coffee shop chains

Figure 24: Number of coffee shops, by type, NI and RoI, 2006

Growth coming from branded outlets

Northern Ireland

Republic of Ireland

Pubs

Figure 25: Number of pubs in NI and RoI, 2000-05

NI licensing changes may open up the market

Pub sector devoid of chains

Northern Ireland

Figure 26: Pubs owned by selected pub groups in NI, 2006

Republic of Ireland

Figure 27: Pubs owned by selected pub groups in RoI, 2006

Restaurants

Figure 28: Number of restaurants in NI and RoI, 2005 and 2006

Little evidence of branded restaurant chains

Fine dining growth not without its problems

The Consumer

Figure 29: Coffee shop, pub and restaurant penetration, NI and RoI, 2006

Coffee shops

Key findings

User base growing

Figure 30: Percentage of population visiting coffee shops or sandwich bars, NI and RoI, 2002-06

Affluent consumers are main consumers

Figure 31: Percentage of population visiting coffee shops, by usage, by gender, age and socio-economic group, NI, 2006

Figure 32: Percentage of population visiting coffee shops, by usage, by gender, age and socio-economic group, RoI, 2006

Pubs

Key findings

Figure 33: Percentage of population who go to pubs for a drink or a meal, NI and RoI, 2002-06

Figure 34: Percentage of population who go to pubs for a drink or a meal, NI and RoI, 2002-06

Meal or drink?

18-34s remain the key consumers

Regular drinkers decreasing

Figure 35: Percentage of population who go to pubs in the evening for a drink, NI and RoI, 2002-06

Pub grub becoming more popular

Figure 36: Percentage of population who go to pubs in the evening for a meal, NI and RoI, 2002-06

Restaurants

Key findings

Figure 37: Percentage of population visiting restaurants in the day or evening, NI and RoI, 2002-06

Evenings remain the prime visiting time

Figure 38: Percentage of population who go to restaurants in the day or evening, NI and RoI, 2002-06

Affluent adults are the key consumers

Affluent consumers under 35 are the main users

Figure 39: Adults who go to restaurants in the evening, by usage, by gender, age and socio-economic group, NI, 2006

Figure 40: Adults who go to restaurants in the evening, by usage, by gender, age and socio-economic group, RoI, 2006

Future Issues in the Market

Limit for coffee shop growth?

A harsh reality for independent coffee shops

Ban on smoking in public places in NI

More pubs and longer opening hours in NI…

…will clubs be a casualty?

Growing grey market hold potential for the restaurant trade

Starbucks to upset the market?

Caffeine awareness to affect coffee sales

More celebrity restaurants?

Appendix

Pub, club, coffee shop and restaurant attendance

Figure 45: Usage of pubs, clubs and restaurants, NI and RoI, 2002-06

Lifestyle questions - additional data

Figure 46: Agreement with ‘I really enjoy a night out at the pub’, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, marital status, working status and presence of children, NI and RoI, 2004 and 2006

Meals in restaurants

Figure 47: Agreement with ‘I enjoy splashing out on a meal in a restaurant’, NI and RoI, 2002-06

Figure 48: Agreement with ‘Most of my drinking is done at home’, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, marital status, working status and presence of children, NI and RoI, 2004 and 2006

Per capita consumption of alcohol

Figure 49: Annual per capita consumption of alcohol among adults aged 15+, EU member states, 2003

Employment statistics

Figure 50: Percentage in employment, by age group, NI and RoI, 2000-05

Coffee Shop Culture

Population statistics

Figure 51: Forecast population change, by age, NI, 2000-20

Figure 52: Forecast population change, by age, RoI, 2000-20

Additional Market Size tables

Pub food and drink tables

Figure 53: Value sales of alcoholic drinks sold through the pub trade, NI and RoI, 2000-05

Figure 54: Value sales of food sold through the pub trade, NI and RoI, 2000-05

Restaurant food and drink tables

Figure 55: Value of food sales in restaurants, NI and RoI, 2000-05

Figure 56: Value of alcohol sales in restaurants, NI and RoI, 2000-05

Alcohol - additional volume sales data

Figure 57: Indexed volume sales of alcoholic drinks, NI and RoI, 2000-05

Figure 58: Volume sales of alcoholic drinks, NI and RoI, 2000-05

Figure 59: Volume sales of alcoholic beverages, by category, NI and RoI, 2000-05

Additional Consumer data tables

Coffee shop consumers

Figure 60: Visiting coffee shops, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, marital status, working status and presence of children, NI and RoI, 2006

Figure 61: Percentage of population visiting coffee shops or sandwich bars, by usage, NI and RoI, 2002 and 2005

Pub consumers

Figure 62: Percentage of population who go to pubs for a drink or a meal, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, marital status, working status and presence of children, NI and RoI, 2004 and 2006

Figure 63: Percentage of adults who go to pubs for a drink, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, marital status, working status and presence of children, NI and RoI, 2004 and 2006

Figure 64: Percentage of population who go to pubs for a meal, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, marital status, working status and presence of children, NI and RoI, 2004 and 2006

Restaurant consumers

Figure 65: Percentage of population who go to restaurants in the day or evening, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, marital status, working status and presence of children, NI and RoI, 2004 and 2006

Consumer - Crossover Appeal - Additional Tables

Figure 66: Pub, coffee shop and restaurant users, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, marital status, working status and presence of children, NI, 2006

Figure 67: Adults who frequent only one type of social hub, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, marital status, working status and presence of children, NI, 2006

Figure 68: pub, coffee shop and restaurant users, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, marital status, working status and presence of children, RoI, 2006

Figure 69: Adults who frequent only one type of social hub, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, marital status, working status and presence of children, RoI, 2006

Smoking ban forecasts

Figure 70: Forecast volume sales of alcohol on-trade, with and without a smoking ban, NI, 2004-10

Natural decline of 2% per annum in on-trade expected without the ban

5% decline expected with the smoking ban

Figure 71: Forecast volume sales of alcohol off-trade, with and without a smoking ban, NI, 2004-10

Natural increase of 3% expected without the smoking ban

6% off-trade boost with the ban

Abstract

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