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Turkey Country Risk ReportPublished by: Condor Advisers Inc. Published: Jan. 22, 2007 - 15 Pages Table of ContentsSUMMARY RISK PROFILE MATRIX GEOPOLITICAL RISK Iraq Civil War And Kurdish Secession Evaporating E.U. Accession Prospects POLITICAL AND SOCIAL RISKS Elections And Political Instability Social Unrest And Terrorism ECONOMIC GROWTH RISK Consumption And Inflation Unemployment, Real Wages & Consumer Credit Production, Investment And Commercial Credit Fiscal Accounts And Domestic Debt EXCHANGE RATE AND ASSET PRICE RISKS The Current Account And Foreign Investment Foreign Exchange Reserves CHARTS AND GRAPHS Real GNP Growth 2000-2007 Real Growth of Private And Public Consumption 2000-2007 Consumer Price Inflation 2000-2007 Unemployment Rate 2000-2007 Real Wage Growth 2000-2007 Nominal Growth of Consumer and Credit Card Credit 2002-2007 Real Growth of Production-based GNP 2005-2007 Real Growth of Private and Public Sector Investment 2000-2007 Nominal Growth of Commercial Credit 2000-2007 Consolidated Government Balance 2000-2007 Domestic, External and Total Treasury Debt 2000-2007 Trade and Current Account Balances 2000-2007 Tourism Revenue 2000-2007 Foreign Exchange Reserves 2000-2007 AbstractCivil war in Iraq is likely to prompt Kurdish secession, aggravating political and social instability in Turkey. This instability will be heightened by insurmountable setbacks to the country’s E.U. accession bid. Presidential and parliamentary elections in 2007 will produce significant political instability. Political instability will feed social instability driven by anti-government protests and increasingly frequent terrorist strikes in Turkey. Political and social instability will heighten economic instability. Strong economic growth in recent years has been fueled by very rapid consumer and commercial credit growth. Rising interest rates in 2006 began to choke private consumption and investment.Increasing political and social turmoil will drive interest rates much higher in 2007, producing a severe economic recession. Turkey continues to be extremely vulnerable to foreign and domestic capital flight. The escalation of Iraq’s civil war, increasing domestic political and social instability, and economic recession are likely to provoke strong lira depreciation and a sharp correction in domestic and external asset prices in 2007. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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