Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Q3 2006

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 1, 2006 - 55 Pages

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Ukraine Pharmaceuticals Industry SWOT

Chapter 2 - Ukraine: Business Environment Ranking

Business Environment Ranking

Economics - Long-term Risk

Politics - Long-term Risk

Regulatory Barriers

Domestic-Sector Threat

Market Growth Potential

Market Size Ranking

Chapter 3 - Market Summary

Chapter 4 - Regulatory Regime

Intellectual Property Issues

Pricing & Reimbursement Issues

Other Market Entry Barriers

Chapter 5 - Industry Developments

Industry Forecast Scenario

Overall Market Forecast

Table: Drug Market Indicators

Key Growth Factors - Industry

Table: Health Expenditure Indicators

Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic

Table: Growth And Output

OTC Market Forecast

Table: OTC Market Indicators

Prescription Market Forecast

Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators

Generics Market Forecast

Table: Generic Market Indicators

Export/Import Forecasts

Table: Import/Export Forecasts

Other Healthcare Data Forecasts

Table: Healthcare Data

Chapter 6 - Competitive Landscape

Manufacturing Sector

Wholesale

Retail

Table: Pharmacies & Pharmacy Market Ratios

Chapter 7 - Company Monitor

Arterium

Gedeon Richter

Krka

Lek (Novartis/Sandoz)

Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Pharmaceutical Industry

Sources

Wages (ave. labour force per annum), US$ PPP

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Chapter 9 - Country Snapshot: Ukraine Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Abstract

Recently released market data continues to paint a very positive picture of Ukrainian pharmaceutical market growth, and the economy has remained surprisingly resilient despite a host of external shocks such as rising energy costs. Russian research group RMBC reported growth of 31% in H106, following growth of 28% in wholesale prices in Q106. BMI remains sceptical that this level of growth is sustainable, but has updated its growth forecast for FY2006 to 22% to reach US$1.94bn. The five-year forecast for 2005 to 2010 now expects annual growth of 9.4% compared to the previous forecast of 7.2%, with total market value now expected to reach US$2.49bn in 2010.

From a policy perspective, the re-appointment of Minister of Health Yuri Polyachenko to the new cabinet led by new Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich can be regarded with cautious optimism. Polyachenko signalled no radical departures from previous policy, stating that the government must remain focused on the transition to a health insurance system while 'accelerating the tempo in each area' of reform. He laid emphasis on providing adequate financing for targeted disease programmes in areas such as cancer and diabetes. He also said a wide-ranging structural reform of the ministry would be undertaken to increase its efficiency.

While saying little new, Polyachenko's reappointment and the formation of a new government under the controversial figure of Yanukovich should provide some way forward after many months of political deadlock. Meanwhile the government continues to hint at new policy in the pharmaceuticals sector. Early in 2006, the Ukrainian cabinet issued a decree that called for a 'Plan of Development' for the domestic pharmaceuticals industry. The impact of such decrees in the past has been negligible. Rather, strong market players are leading consolidation with Darnitsa, Arterium and Borshchagovsky topping the domestic sector. Large scale foreign investment is still lacking, however, notwithstanding relatively small investments by companies such as Bioton (Poland) and Gedeon Richter (Hungary).

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