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The Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2011: Financial and Strategic Analysis of the Sales Outlook for Big Pharma, Mid Pharma, Japan Pharma and BiotechPublished by: Datamonitor Published: Dec. 21, 2006 - 192 Pages Table of ContentsCHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Key findings Introduction to the PharmaVitae Company Universe Summary of analysis PharmaVitae universe overview Big Pharma overview Mid Pharma overview Biotech overview Japan Pharma overview The PharmaVitae universe will grow at a very modest 2005-11 CAGR of 4.9% Indication broadening in oncology and AIID provides a major opportunity for driving growth and biologics are currently insulated against generic competition Japan, Big and Mid Pharma are all entrenched in slow-growing disease markets Biotech is the most biologics-focused peer set although Big Pharma player Roche has accessed this valuable product set via the acquisition of Genentech Indication broadening boosts sales growth from core marketed products whereas generic competition drives down sales of expired products The financial benefit of Big Pharma scale - increased operating profit margins Strategic options for Big Pharma and consequences for the other peer sets (1) Achieve operating cost efficiencies (2) M&A with another Big Pharma - more mega-mergers? (3) M&A with biotech - access oncology/AIID biologics (4) M&A with Mid Pharma - access promising CNS products (5) M&A with generics companies (6) M&A outside of pharma space Consequences for other peer sets The rest of this report CHAPTER 2 BIG PHARMA Key findings Big Pharma members Big Pharma members Big Pharma overview Big Pharma sales outlook Company sales performance, 2005-11 Big Pharma sales performance, 2005-11 Company growth rates, 2005-11 Company change in annual sales, 2005-11 Big Pharma launch/expiry analysis Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Big Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Big Pharma therapeutic area analysis Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2005 Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2011 Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products, 2005 Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products, 2011 Big Pharma molecule type analysis Big Pharma molecule type launch/core/expiry analysis Company by biologics dependency, 2005 Company by biologics dependency, 2011 Big Pharma growth rate by molecule type Big Pharma financial performance analysis Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues Company total revenues, 2002-06e Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e CHAPTER 3 MID PHARMA Key findings Mid Pharma overview Mid Pharma members Mid Pharma overview Mid Pharma sales outlook Company sales performance, 2005-11 Mid Pharma sales performance, 2005-11 Company growth rates, 2005-11 Company change in annual sales, 2005-11 Mid Pharma launch/expiry analysis Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Mid Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Mid Pharma therapeutic area analysis Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 Mid Pharma molecule type analysis Company by biologics dependency, 2005 Company by biologics dependency, 2011 Mid Pharma financial performance analysis Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues Company total revenues, 2002-06e Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e CHAPTER 4 BIOTECH Key findings Biotech overview Biotech members Biotech overview Biotech sales outlook Company sales performance, 2005-11 Biotech sales performance, 2005-11 Company growth rates, 2005-11 Company change in annual sales, 2005-11 Biotech launch/expiry analysis Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Biotech contribution from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Biotech therapeutic area analysis Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 Biotech molecule type analysis Company by biologics dependency, 2005 Company by biologics dependency, 2011 Biotech financial performance analysis Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues Company total revenues, 2002-06e Company operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e CHAPTER 5 JAPAN PHARMA Key findings Japan Pharma overview Japan Pharma members Japan Pharma overview Japan Pharma sales outlook Company sales performance, 2005-11 Japan Pharma sales performance, 2005-11 Company growth rates, 2005-11 Company change in annual sales, 2005-11 Japan Pharma launch/expiry analysis Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Japan Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Japan Pharma therapeutic area analysis Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 Japan Pharma molecule type analysis Company by biologics dependency, 2005 Company by biologics dependency, 2011 Japan Pharma financial performance analysis Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues Company total revenues, 2002-06e Company operating expense ratio analysis, 2002-06e EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX References Exchange rates LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Big Pharma members Table 2: Mid Pharma members Table 3: Biotech members Table 4: Japan Pharma members Table 5: Therapy area abbreviations (used throughout report) Table 6: Summary of analysis Table 7: Big Pharma members Table 8: Big Pharma ethical sales forecasts ($m), 2005-11 Table 9: Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Table 10: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Table 11: Big Pharma therapy area sales, 2005-11 Table 12: Big Pharma therapy area launch/core/expiry analysis, 2005-11 Table 13: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2005 Table 14: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2011 Table 15: Big Pharma top five products, 2005 Table 16: Big Pharma top five products, 2011 Table 17: Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Table 18: Big Pharma therapy area launch/core/expiry analysis, 2005-11 Table 19: Mid Pharma members Table 20: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m), 2005-11 Table 21: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Table 22: Biotech members Table 23: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m), 2005-11 Table 24: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Table 25: Japan Pharma members Table 26: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m), 2005-11 Table 27: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Table 28: Exchange rates, 2005 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: PharmaVitae universe overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) Figure 2: Big Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) Figure 3: Mid Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) Figure 4: Biotech overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) Figure 5: Japan Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) Figure 6: PharmaVitae universe sales ($m), 2005-11 Figure 7: Therapy area x product attractiveness landscape Figure 8: Therapy area x product landscape: PFE, ROG and DNA Figure 9: Peer set therapeutic area focus, 2005 Figure 10: Peer set therapy area growth rates (% CAGR), 2005-11 Figure 11: Peer set launch/core/expiry analysis, total growth rate over the six years between 2005-11 (%) Figure 12: Peer set EBIT/total revenues, 2006e Figure 13: Strategic options for Big Pharma Figure 14: Big Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) Figure 15: Company sales performance ($m), 2005-11 Figure 16: Big Pharma sales performance, 2005-11 Figure 17: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005-11 Figure 18: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005-11 Figure 19: GlaxoSmithKline’s launch portfolio, sales ($m), 2005-11 Figure 20: GlaxoSmithKline’s expiry portfolio, sales ($m), 2005-11 Figure 21: GlaxoSmithKline’s core portfolio, sales ($m), 2005-11 Figure 22: GlaxoSmithKline launch/core/expiry analysis, absolute growth ($m), 2005-11 Figure 23: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Figure 24: Big Pharma contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005-11 Figure 25: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 Figure 26: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 Figure 27: Company by therapy area sales, 2011 Figure 28: Big Pharma therapy area focus vs. growth rate Figure 29: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas (% of total ethical sales), 2005 Figure 30: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas (% of total ethical sales), 2011 Figure 31: Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products(% of total ethical sales), 2005 Figure 32: Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products (% of total ethical sales), 2011 Figure 33: Big Pharma launch/core/expiry by product type (% 2005 sales), 2005-11 Figure 34: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005 Figure 35: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011 Figure 36: Big Pharma growth rate by molecule type (% CAGR), 2005-11 Figure 37: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m), 2005 Figure 38: Company total revenues ($m), 2002-06e Figure 39: Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e Figure 40: Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e Figure 41: Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e Figure 42: Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e Figure 43: Big Pharma EBIT vs. total revenues ($m), 2006e Figure 44: Mid Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) Figure 45: Company sales performance ($m), 2005-11 Figure 46: Mid Pharma sales performance ($m), 2005-11 Figure 47: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005-11 Figure 48: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005-11 Figure 49: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Figure 50: Mid Pharma contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005-11 Figure 51: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 Figure 52: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 Figure 53: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005 Figure 54: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011 Figure 55: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m) Figure 56: Company total revenues ($m), 2002-06e Figure 57: Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e Figure 58: Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e Figure 59: Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e Figure 60: Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002-06e Figure 61: Mid Pharma EBIT vs. total revenues ($m), 2006e Figure 62: Biotech overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) Figure 63: Company sales performance ($m), 2005-11 Figure 64: Biotech sales performance ($m), 2005-11 Figure 65: Company growth rates (CAGR %), 2005-11 Figure 66: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005-11 Figure 67: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Figure 68: Biotech contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005-11 Figure 69: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 Figure 70: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 Figure 71: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005 Figure 72: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011 Figure 73: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m) Figure 74: Company total revenues ($m), 2002-06e Figure 75: Company operating cost analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e Figure 76: Company EBIT/total revenues, 2002-06e Figure 77: Japan Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%) Figure 78: Company sales performance ($m), 2005-11 Figure 79: Japan Pharma sales performance ($m), 2005-11 Figure 80: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005-11 Figure 81: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005-11 Figure 82: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005-11 Figure 83: Japan Pharma contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005-11 Figure 84: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005 Figure 85: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011 Figure 86: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005 Figure 87: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011 Figure 88: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m) Figure 89: Company total revenues ($m), 2002-06e Figure 90: Company operating cost analysis (% total revenues), 2002-06e Figure 91: Company EBIT vs. total revenues, 2002-06e AbstractIntroductionBased on an analysis of 46 companies and 1,000+ products, Datamonitor forecasts that pharmaceutical industry ethical sales will increase at a modest 4.9% CAGR 200511. However, behind this industry average figure there are strategic segments of the market that offer double-digit growth rates through barriers against generic competition and the opportunity for aggressive indication broadening. Scope
Faced with failing growth, Big Pharma is expected to pursue strategic options including operational cost efficiencies, M&A with other Big Pharma companies, biotech, Mid Pharma CNS players and/or generics manufacturers and acquisitional moves outside of 'pharma space' to increase presence in medical devices, diagnostics and consumer healthcare. Biotech will be the fastest growing peer set with a 10.1% sales CAGR 2005-11. Biotech is almost totally insulated from generic threat because (1) biotech portfolios are often too young to contain expired products and (2) even if products have expired, the predominantly biologic nature of biotech portfolios is a major barrier to generic entry. The fastest growing Japanese companies (such as Daiichi-Sankyo and Astellas) will receive the majority of their growth from expanding sales of already marketed products whereas the slowest growing companies (such as Takeda and Eisai) are burdened with heavy sales declines from patent expiries particularly in the gastrointestinal therapy area. Reasons to Purchase
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