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The Billion-Dollar Question: Which Emerging Agents Have Blockbuster Potential

Published by: Decision Resources

Published: Dec. 18, 2006 - 19 Pages

Price reduced due to age.

Table of Contents


Executive Summary




Introduction

Emerging Blockbusters to Treat Metabolic Disease


Merck’s Januvia

Novartis’s Galvus

Sanofi-Aventis’s Acomplia


Emerging Blockbusters to Treat Psychiatric Diseases


Janssen’s Paliperidone ER

Wyeth’s Pristiq


Other Emerging Blockbusters


Neurochem’s Alzhemed

AtheroGenics’ Succinobucol (AGI-1067)

UCB’s Cimzia




Conclusion




Tables

1. Blockbuster Products Facing Patent Expiry by Mid 2008

2. Development Status and Anticipated Launch Year of Emerging Blockbusters




Figures

1. Prevalent Cases of Metabolic Diseases, 2005

2. Market Value of Metabolic Diseases, 2005

3. Prevalent Cases of Schizophrenia and Depression, 2005

4. Market Value of Schizophrenia and Depression, 2005

5. Prevalent Cases of Chronic Heart Failure and Post-Myocardial Infarction, 2005

6. Market Value of Chronic Heart Failure and Post-Myocardial Infarction, 2005

7. Prevalent Cases of Chronic Inflammatory Diseases, 2005

8. Market Value of Chronic Inflammatory Diseases, 2005

Abstract

Introduction

In 2005, more than half of the $405 billion worldwide pharmaceutical market was generated from sales of more than 100 blockbuster products. From the beginning of 2006 through mid 2008, however, 19 of these agents (20% of blockbuster sales) will face patent expiry. The potential generic threat from these expiries poses a challenge for both the companies that manufacture them and the industry at large.

Questions Answered in This Spectrum Report

Almost 20% of the market value for pharmaceuticals in 2005 (from about 16 products) faces generic competition by mid 2008. What are the top blockbuster drugs facing challenges from patent expiries? What agents are manufacturers developing in an effort to fi ll this void?

We forecast that eight new blockbuster products will launch between the end of 2006 and mid 2008. What approaches will these new drugs take in addressing their respective indications? How successful will these emerging agents be in these indications?

The new crop of blockbusters slated to debut in the next few years will bring new players to the list of blockbuster-producing companies. Which companies will become new members of the blockbuster club? How will their approaches in creating and sustaining these drugs differ from those taken by other companies that have created blockbusters?

Scope
  • Blockbusters introduction: current state of the $1 billion+ drug category.
  • Metabolic indications covered: type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, and obesity.
  • Psychiatric indications covered: schizophrenia, bipolar mania, and major depression.
  • Other indications: Alzheimer’s disease, atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, postmyocardial infarction, rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn’s disease, psoriasis, smoking cessation, and vasomotor symptoms associated with menopause.
  • Market outlook: Short-term impact of the departure and arrival of patented blockbusters on select indications.


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