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CNS Drug Discoveries: Schizophrenia Chapter

Published by: Espicom Healthcare Intelligence

Published: Nov. 27, 2006 - 90 Pages


Table of Contents


SCHIZOPHRENIA

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

THE FACTS


What is schizophrenia and why are we interested in it?


Symptoms associated with schizophrenia

Schematic depicting mood swings in bipolar disorder



PATIENT STATISTICS


Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future


PATIENT MODEL


Summary of patient population forecasts 2005A-2012E


DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS

DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS




GLOBAL SCHIZOPHRENIA MARKET


Global CNS Market (US$687 billion)


GLOBAL SALES SPLIT



Global sales split (2005A)

Prescription usage split (2005A)


The major players


Market share of antipsychotic players by sales (Dec 2005A)

Market share of antipsychotic players by sales (Dec 2006E)


Players and Products in 2005 & 2006

Players and Products in 2012


Market share of antipsychotic players by sales (Dec 2012E)



CURRENT TREATMENTS


Leading Brands


Comparison of leading antipsychotic drugs


Current Products Patent Exposure


Patent Exposure of Leading Antipsychotic Brands



ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS


Atypical antipsychotics

Other Agents


ATYPICAL ANTIPSYCHOTICS


Abilify (Bristol-Myers Squibb/Otsuka)

Geodon/Zeldox (Pfizer)

Risperdal (Johnson & Johnson)

Seroquel (AstraZeneca)

Zyprexa (Eli Lilly)


Other atypical antipsychotics:


Serdolect (Lundbeck)

Lullan

Clozaril/Leponex (Novartis)

Solian (sanofi-aventis)


GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2005 - 2012



Sales Forecasts of Current Leading Antipsychotics


Model assumptions


NEW DRUGS IN R&D


Drugs in Development to Treat Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder


ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS



Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder


D/5-HT receptor antagonists


D/5-HT receptor antagonists


Asenapine (Pfizer/Organon)

Bifeprunox (Wyeth/Solvay/Lundbeck)

Blonanserin (Dainippon Sumitomo)


Clinical Efficacy of Blonanserin


Iloperidone (Vanda Pharmaceutical)


Safety Profile of Iloperidone vs Approved Antipsychotics


Paliperidone (Johnson & Johnson)


GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III SCHIZOPHRENIA DRUGS 2006 - 2012



Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental Antipsychotic Drugs


Model assumptions


ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS



New Drugs in Early Clinical Development to Treat Schizophrenia/Bipolar Disorder


Lurasidone (Dainippon Sumitomo/Merck & Co)

Ocaperidone (Neuro3d)

SGS518 (Eli Lilly/Saegis Pharmaceuticals)

Talnetant (GlaxoSmithKline)


Talnetant Efficacy and Safety Profile

Talnetant Cognitive Effects


ABT-089 (Abbott)

ORG 24448 (Akzo Nobel/Cortex Pharmaceuticals)

Vabicaserin (Wyeth)


GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE II ANTIPSYCHOTIC DRUGS 2005-2012



Sales Forecasts of Phase II Developmental Antipsychotic Drugs


Model assumptions


COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS



CR Analysis of Antipsychotic Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Drug Class



COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES



CR Analysis of Antipsychotics Approved by 2012 - Based on Company


WINNERS & LOSERS


Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the Antipsychotic Market by 2012


Winners

Losers


DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS


Antipsychotic Drugs Discontinued from Clinical Development


SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 1


Assessment of antipsychotic efficacy in schizophrenia

Assessment of antipsychotic efficacy in bipolar disorder


SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 2


Phase transition probability


Probability of launch



SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 3


Patient Model


Summary of US Schizophrenia Patient Population Forecasts

Summary of European (Top 5) Schizophrenia Patient Population Forecasts

Summary of Japanese Schizophrenia Patient Population Forecasts



SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 4


Global Antipsychotic Drug Sales 2005A-2012E


SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 5


Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria


Key Antipsychotic Drugs on the Market by 2012



SCHIZOPHRENIA GLOSSARY

SCHIZOPHRENIA REFERENCES

ACRONYMS

Abstract

The antipsychotic market generated global sales of US$15.5 billion, accounting for 23% of global CNS sales in 2005. This chapter of CNS Drug Discoveries focuses on schizophrenia.

The antipsychotic market generated global sales of US$15.5 billion, accounting for 23% of global CNS sales in 2005, growing by 11% year on year. The market has evolved since the 1950s when the first conventional or typical antipsychotics were introduced, followed by atypical antipsychotics in the late 1990s with better tolerability profiles.

Schizophrenia is one of the major psychotic disorders and the WHO estimates that approximately 1% of the world's population at some point in life will be affected by schizophrenia, while 0.5% of all people will be afflicted by the disease at any given time (around 24 million people worldwide). The total economic burden of schizophrenia in 1990 was estimated to be US$32.5 billion (equivalent to US$47.6 billion today after consumer price index adjustment). Conversely, the total costs of anxiety disorders, whilst ten times more prevalent than schizophrenia, amounted to US$42 billion annually.

Global antipsychotic market

The antipsychotic market has witnessed strong growth during the last five years as the atypical antipsychotics have become established in the market and companies have sought to expand their utility in the acute and long-term treatment of schizophrenia and bipolar disorders. While atypical antipsychotics now account for over 80% of global sales there has been a radical slow down in the last 18 months due to concerns over safety. This finding has resulted in the FDA requesting additional warnings to be placed on all the leading atypical antipsychotic labels.

By 2012, the leadership position within the antipsychotic market will change as today’s leading brands go off patent and companies launch their third generation atypical antipsychotics and new manufacturers enter the market.

Key questions answered in this chapter include:
  • What will the value of the antipsychotic market be in 2012?
  • What are the drivers and dampeners in the market?
  • How will generics impact leading brands over the next five years?
  • What are the prospects for new drugs paliperidone (Johnson & Johnson), blonanserin (Dainippon Sumitomo), asenapine (Pfizer/Organon), bifeprunox Lundbeck/Solvay/ Wyeth) and iloperidone (Vanda Pharmaceuticals)?
  • What alternate indications are companies pursuing to expand their franchises?


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