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CNS Drug Discoveries: Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) Chapter

Published by: Espicom Healthcare Intelligence

Published: Nov. 27, 2006 - 84 Pages


Table of Contents


ATTENTION DEFICIT HYPERACTIVITY DISORDER

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

THE FACTS


What is ADHD and why are we interested in it?


Symptoms of ADHD subtype

Rates of Co-morbid Conditions among Children with ADHD



PATIENT STATISTICS


Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future


PATIENT MODEL


The addressable ADHD market will have show 65% CAGR over the period 2005-2012


Summary of patient population forecasts 2005A-2012E



DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS

DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS




GLOBAL ADHD MARKET


Global CNS Market (US$687 billion)


GLOBAL SALES SPLIT



Global sales split (2005A)


US market


ADHD US drugs sales split (2005A)


European market


ADHD European drugs sales split (2005A)


Japanese market

The major players


Market share of ADHD players by sales (Dec 2005A)


Players and Products in 2005 & 2006

Players and Products in 2012


Market share of ADHD players by sales (Dec 2012E)



CURRENT TREATMENTS


Leading Brands


Comparison of leading ADHD drugs


Current Products Patent Exposure


ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS


Stimulants

Non-Stimulant


STIMULANTS


Adderall and Adderall XR (Shire)

Concerta and Concerta XL (Johnson & Johnson)

Competitor Ratio Analysis

Daytrana (Shire)

Focalin/Focalin XR (Novartis)

Ritalin/Ritalin LA (Novartis)

Metadate ER/Equasym and Metadate CD/Equasym XL (UCB)


NON STIMULANT


Strattera (Eli Lilly)


GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2005 - 2012



Sales Forecasts of Current Leading ADHD Drugs


Model assumptions


NEW DRUGS IN R&D


Drugs in Development to Treat ADHD


ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS



New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat ADHD


Non-Stimulant

Stimulant

Connexyn (Shire)


p-value of ADHD-RS Efficacy of SPD503 versus placebo in Phase III trials

Changing in ADHD Rating Score Connexyn (Study 301) and Strattera (Study 3468)


NRP104 (Shire)

SPD465 (Shire)


GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III ADHD DRUGS 2006 - 2012



Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental ADHD Drugs


Model assumptions


ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS



New Drugs in Early Clinical Development to Treat ADHD


NS2359 (GSK, NeuroSearch)

CX717 (Cortex Pharmaceuticals)

PRX-00023

SGS742

Abilify


GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE II ADHD DRUGS 2006 - 2012



Sales Forecasts of Phase 2 Developmental ADHD Drugs


Model assumptions


COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS


CR Analysis of ADHD Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Drug Class


COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES



CR Analysis of ADHD Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Company


WINNERS & LOSERS


Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the ADHD Market by 2012


Winners

Losers


DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS


ADHD drugs discontinued from clinical development


ADHD APPENDIX 1


Assessment of ADHD Criteria


ADHD APPENDIX 2


Phase transition probability


Probability of launch



ADHD APPENDIX 3


Patient Model


Summary of US ADHD Patient Population Forecasts

Summary of Europe (Top 5) ADHD Patient Population Forecasts

Summary of Japan ADHD Patient Population Forecasts



ADHD APPENDIX 4


Global ADHD Drugs Sales 2005-20012


Global ADHD Drug Sales 2005A-2012E (US$ million)



ADHD APPENDIX 5


Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria


Key ADHD Drugs on the Market by 2012



ADHD GLOSSARY

ADHD REFERENCES

ACRONYMS

Abstract

ADHD is now the 9th largest segment of the CNS market by sales with growth of 8% year-on-year. Find out more in this chapter of CNS Drug Discoveries.

The value of the ADHD market was US$2.6 billion in 2005 and it is now the 9th largest segment of the CNS market by sales with growth of 8% year-on-year. Global sales of ADHD drugs are forecast to reach US$4.3 billion by 2012. This will be due to greater penetration in the treatment of new patients, particularly adult ADHD, improvements in patient compliance due to the launch of new formulations, new non-schedule II drugs and the development of novel classes of drugs in late-stage clinical trials.

There has been a significant increase in ADHD diagnosis and prescription of medicine since the early 1990s due to wider understanding of the condition in the mental health community, increased use of medication and healthcare coverage and the launch of ADHD-specific drugs (from 2000 onwards). ADHD is one of the most common psychiatric disorders of childhood and approximately 50% to 70% of children with ADHD will continue to experience symptoms into adulthood. In 2000, it was estimated that 4-5 million individuals (mainly children) were diagnosed with ADHD of whom 75-85% were treated with psychostimulants. Over 8 million adults in the US may exhibit the symptoms of ADHD, while only an estimated 600,000 are being treated.

Global ADHD market

Approximately 90% of ADHD global sales were derived from the US in 2005, with the remainder from Europe. This is largely due to a higher diagnosis rate in paediatrics and availability of drugs for medical reimbursement. Growth in adult ADHD medications has increased exponentially whilst their use in children has slowed due to safety concerns. Growth has also been driven by the launch of new non-stimulant drugs, new patients and the development of new formulations providing flexibility in dosing and higher patient compliance. This has helped to offset the impact of generics which are beginning to emerge on the market.

Key questions answered in this chapter include:
  • By what size has the patient population increased in the last 10 years?
  • What impact is the treatment of adult ADHD treatment having on the market?
  • What strategy is Shire adopting to protect its ADHD franchise from generics?
  • What impact has Lilly’s Strattera had on the market?
  • What market share has Novartis achieved and how?
  • What other companies are entering the ADHD market and how do their products stack up against the competition?


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