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Digital Music Adoption: Roadblock Ahead - Analysis, Scenarios and Solutions

Published by: Generator Research Limited

Published: Nov. 6, 2006 - 22 Pages


Table of Contents



CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

REPORT OUTLINE

BACKGROUND

Aggregate Penetration

Other Factors

MARKET SCENARIOS

SCENARIO 1: PLATFORM SILOS

Description

Options

SCENARIO 2: FULL INTEROPERABILITY

Description

Options

SCENARIO 3: MEDIA PORTABILITY

Description

Strategic Viability

CONCLUSION

Abstract

  • Problem Description: Adoption
  • 3 Scenarios and 6 Variants
  • Market Forces vs. Regulation
  • Media Portability
  • In-depth Analysis
  • Solutions
Based on current trends, the future supply of digital music will be controlled by a relatively small number of companies who operate incompatible technology platforms. Apple, the first player to enter the market, will soon be joined by Microsoft and other companies are also likely to enter the fray - players like Nokia, Sony, Samsung and maybe Yahoo!

The critical question facing industry executives today is what effect this will have on the development of the market? For instance, as consumers buy more and more digital music, they will become increasingly locked into their chosen platform. Maybe these people will retreat from digital music when they realise the costs and problems involved in switching vendors? Worse, such problems may mean that large segments of the market will not be interested in buying digital music at all.

A strategic “deep dive,” this report analyses this problem in detail using a range of market development scenarios that include three major options and six variations. For each scenario, the report paints a vivid picture of how the interoperability problem could be solved. Detailed explanations are provided of each scenario, its strategic viability and the most likely outcome. The report concludes by comparing all seven market development paths and identifying two basic outcomes, one of which is far more likely than the other.

This report, which is the first in a series looking at digital music adoption, is a must-read for every executive who wants to understand how serious the interoperability problem is, what the solutions are and how digital music can avoid ending up as a failed format.

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