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Five Factors That Will Shape The Future of The Pharmaceutical Industry

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: Oct. 3, 2006 - 9 Pages


Table of Contents


DATAMONITOR VIEW
CATALYST
SUMMARY
METHODOLOGY


ANALYSIS
Inorganic growth strategies such as M&A and licensing activity will drive growth for pharmaceutical companies
M&A activity has contributed to pharmaceutical companies' revenue growth over the last five years
Mid-Pharma could experience the next wave of consolidation
In-licensing is becoming a popular strategy
Government and payer cost containment measures will exert downward pressure on profitability
HTAs will become increasingly important
It will become more difficult to obtain a premium price in certain countries
With cost-containment becoming more widespread, companies will find it increasingly difficult to obtain returns
Several factors are expected to lead to a rise in the use of generics
Rising healthcare expenditure will drive generic use
Over $157 billion of 2005 branded sales will be exposed to generic competition by 2015
The aging population will drive future uptake of generic drugs
Biologics will act as the key driver of growth within Big Pharma, accounting for 60% of sales growth to 2010
Biologic growth is expected to outpace that of the small molecules
Monoclonal antibodies are seen as key growth driver
Part D is set to have a major impact on drug prescription in the US
Part D will boost the share of total pharmaceutical spending accounted for by Medicare to 28%
Part D issues are changing market dynamics
The donut hole may persuade beneficiaries to use generics

APPENDIX
Further reading
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Abstract

Introduction

This brief provides five key predictions for the trends shaping the pharmaceutical market in 2007 and beyond, and explains the impact of these predictions on the industry. Predictions discussed include the continued influence of M&A and licensing, the increasing impact of cost containment policies by payers and an increasing reliance on biologics to drive growth.

Scope
  • An overview of the drivers and impact of increasing generic penetration in the major pharmaceutical markets
  • A summary of Datamonitor's analysis of Big Pharma's increasing reliance on biologic therapies to drive growth
  • A review of the expected impact of Medicare Part D on the US pharmaceutical market over the next few years
Highlights

Within the next five years an estimated $80 billion in 2005 product sales will be exposed to generic competition. The focus of payers on encouraging generic penetration will increase the impact of these patent expiries on branded pharma, and generate a favorable environment for generics companies to drive growth

As patent expiries increasingly impact small molecule blockbusters the pharmaceutical industry is focusing more heavily on biotechnology to drive future growth

Reasons to Purchase
  • Understand the key trends shaping the pharmaceutical market over the coming years
  • Gain insight into Datamonitor's predictions for the future impact of key trends



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