Pipeline Insight: Non-insulin Antidiabetics - Type 2 Diabetes Unlikely To Develop Into A Switch Market : Market Research Report

Pipeline Insight: Non-insulin Antidiabetics - Type 2 Diabetes Unlikely To Develop Into A Switch Market

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: Jul. 31, 2006 - 237 Pages

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE: About the cardiovascular pharmaceutical analysis team
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Scope of the analysis; Datamonitor insight into the market for non-insulin antidiabetic pharmacotherapies
CHAPTER 2 PIPELINE OVERVIEW: Pipeline overview
CHAPTER 3 PATIENT POTENTIAL: Definition of diabetes; Segmentation of diabetes; Epidemiology of diabetes; Unmet need in diabetes
CHAPTER 4 R&D APPROACH: Therapy overview in type 1 and type 2 diabetes; Comparator therapies; Classification of pipeline products; Clinical trial issues in diabetes
CHAPTER 5 LATE-STAGE DRUG ANALYSIS & FORECASTS: NON-INSULIN ANTIDIABETICS: Overview of pharmacotherapies in late-stage development for type 2 diabetes; DPP-4 inhibitor class; GLP-1 class; Metaglidasen (MBX-102); Datamonitor does not believe non-injectable insulins to be able to compete with non-insulin antidiabetics; Datamonitor drug assessment summary
CHAPTER 6 OTHER NON-INSULIN ANTIDIABETICS: 625019; 677954; 825964; 189075; Ro-0730699; DRF-2593 (Balaglitazone); PHX-1149; AMG-221; APD-668; Arimoclomol (BRX-345); Anti-CD3; AVE-0847; AVE-2268; AVE-5376; AVE-8134; AZD-6610; AZD-8677; AVE-0010 (ZP-10); BAY-73-7977; BI-1356-BS; BIM-51077 (ITM-077); BLX-1002; CJC-1134-PC; CKD-501; CS-917 (MB-6322); Denagliptin (Redona, 823093); Diamyd (GAD-65); DiaPep277 (AVE-0277); DIO-901; DIO-902; EMD-387008; EN-122004; GRC-8200; 716155 (albugon); K-111; KRP-104; ISIS-113715; MB-07803; MBX-2044; MK-0533; MK-0893; MK-0941; MP-513; Naveglitazar (LY-818, LY519818); iPlex (mecasermin rinfabate); Netoglitazone (MCC-555); NN-0606; NN-9101; ONO-5129; PLX-204; PSN-010; PSN-357; PSN-9301 (P93/01); R-1438; R-1439; R-1440; AVR-118 (reticulose, Product R); CS-011 (rivoglitazone); Saxagliptin (BMS-477118); TS-033; SGLT2 Inhibitor (lab code undisclosed); Solabegron (427353); SSR-162369; CS-872; SYR-322; T-1095; TA-6666; TAK-654; TH-0318; TS-021; TRX-4 (agCD3); E1-INT
APPENDIX A: Datamonitor drug assessment summary; Bibliography; Report methodology
APPENDIX B: About Datamonitor; Datamonitor Healthcare's therapy area capabilities; Disclaimer
List of Tables: Table 1: Pipeline of non-insulin antidiabetic agents, 2006; Table 2: The pipeline for non-insulin antidiabetic agents is mechanistically diversified: full listing, 2006; Table 3: The pipeline for non-insulin antidiabetic agents is mechanistically diversified, 2006; Table 4: Acute pipeline of non-insulin antidiabetic agents by company, 2006; Table 5: Collaborative nature of R&D projects among key players in the non-insulin antidiabetic therapy sector, 2006; Table 6: Prevalence of diabetes mellitus is forecast to increase by the International Diabetes Foundation (IDF), 2003-2025; Table 7: Prevalence rate of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in the seven major markets (%), 2006-2015; Table 8: Estimated absolute prevalence of diabetes in the seven major markets (millions), 2006-2015; Table 9: Safety of pioglitazone; Table 10: Comparator Oral Antidiabetics of the TZD Class; Table 11: Weight gain associated with Actos (kg); Table 12: Weight gain associated with Avandia (kg); Table 13: Comparator oral antidiabetics of the sulfonylurea class; Table 14: Metformin is the only representative of the biguanide class; Table 15: Characteristics of GIP and GLP-1; Table 16: Key pipeline non-insulin antidiabetic therapies, 2006; Table 17: Trial data overview: Galvus, June 2006; Table 18: Trial data overview: Januvia, June 2006; Table 19: Key adverse event data comparing Januvia and Galvus as metformin adjuncts, 2006; Table 20: Sales forecast for Januvia, 2007-15; Table 21: Sales forecast for Galvus, 2007-15; Table 22: Comparison of GLP-1 agonists with DPP-4 inhibitors, 2006; Table 23: Comparative analysis of Byetta BID, Byetta LAR and liraglutide, 2006; Table 24: GLP-1 agonist class: Comparison between Byetta LAR and liraglutide, 2006; Table 25: Sales forecast for Byetta LAR, 2010-2015; Table 26: Sales forecast for liraglutide, 2009-15; Table 27: Sales forecast for metaglidasen, 2011-2015; Table 28: Research, clinical and commercial attractiveness of key pipeline non-insulin antidiabetics: basis dataset; Table 29: Datamonitor drug assessment parameters
List of Figures: Figure 1: Pipeline of non-insulin antidiabetic drugs, 2006; Figure 2: The pipeline of non-insulin antidiabetic agents is mechanistically diverse, 2006; Figure 3: Pipeline maturity: percentage of R&D products in each phase of development, 2006; Figure 4: Collaborative nature of R&D projects among key players in the non-insulin antidiabetic therapy sector, 2006; Figure 5: Comparison of glucose testing; Figure 6: Current NIADs do not address all medical aspects of type 2 diabetes; Figure 7: Regulation of blood glucose levels by insulin, glucagon and amylin; Figure 8: Mechanism of action of TZDs; Figure 9: Mechanism of action of sulfonylureas and prandial glucose regulators; Figure 10: Mechanism of action of metformin; Figure 11: History of GLP-1, 1930-2006; Figure 12: Mechanism of action of GLP-1; Figure 13: GLP-1 effects on â cells; Figure 14: Functional pancreatic effects of GLP-1; Figure 15: Mechanism of action of GLP-1 agonists; Figure 16: Mechanism of action of DPP-4 inhibitors; Figure 17: Combined theoretical benefits of PPAR pan agonists; Figure 18: SWOT: Januvia (sitagliptin), 2006; Figure 19: SWOT: Galvus (vildagliptin), 2006; Figure 20: Sales forecast for Januvia and Galvus, 2007-2016; Figure 21: SWOT: Byetta LAR, 2006; Figure 22: SWOT: Liraglutide, 2006; Figure 23: Sales forecast for Byetta LAR, 2010-2015; Figure 24: Sales forecast for liraglutide, 2009-2015; Figure 25: SWOT: metaglidasen (MBX-102), 2006; Figure 26: Sales forecast for metaglidasen, 2011-2015; Figure 27: Overview of sales forecasts for the five pipeline agents analyzed in the present report, 2006-2015; Figure 28: Research, clinical and commercial attractiveness of key pipeline non-insulin antidiabetics: bubble chart; Figure 29: Research, clinical and commercial attractiveness of late-stage candidate drugs in diabetes setting: radar plot; Figure 30: Example of Datamonitor drug assessment scorecard; Figure 31: Example of Datamonitor drug assessment graph

Abstract

Introduction

Datamonitor expects the continuously growing prevalence of diabetes to drive growth in diabetes drug spending, benefiting market uptake of newly developed, efficacious therapies. A variety of novel, non-insulin antidiabetic agents are poised to become available to patients in the next decade, with two DPP-4 inhibitors likely to launch in 2007 and two GLP-1 agonists entering the market by 2010.

Scope

Assessment of the patient potential for developmental non-insulin agents in the type 2 diabetes setting of over the period 2006-15
Overview of the non-insulin antidiabetics R&D pipeline, with detailed information on the classes in development and comparator drugs
Commercial analysis of key compounds in development regarding their ability to satisfy key unmet needs, supported by the views of key opinion leaders
Sales forecasts for key late-stage developmental non-insulin antidiabetics in the seven major markets to 2015

Highlights

The diabetes market is worthy of investment because of the endemic size of its patient pool which is set to grow further, and the nature of its unmet clinical needs. This situation is reflected in the R&D pipeline for non-insulin antidiabetics, comprising a diverse collection of 76 novel agents in clinical development.

Datamonitor has identified five late-stage candidate drugs likely to be launched in the diabetes market within the next five years. These are the DPP-4 inhibitors Galvus and Januvia, the GLP-1 agonists Byetta LAR and liraglutide, the PPAR-gamma modulator metaglidasen. Apart from metaglidasen, all four agents have blockbuster potential.

Despite the fact that pipeline products will impact the diabetes market greatly in the next five years, there are currently no agents in late-stage clinical development that are likely to fully replace current mainstays of antidiabetic therapy. Type 2 diabetes is therefore likely to remain an add-on market rather than develop into a switch market.

Reasons to Purchase

Understand the key factors that will contribute to the success of the next generation of anti-diabetes drugs
View independent sales forecasts for products in late stage development for therapy of type 2 diabetes
Understand physician sentiment on clinical trial endpoints and late-stage candidate drugs for the diabetes market

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Pipeline Insight: Non-insulin Antidiabetics - Type 2 Diabetes Unlikely To Develop Into A Switch Market

Table of Contents

Abstract