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Published by: Mintel International Group Ltd.
Published: Jul. 1, 2006 - 100 Pages
Table of Contents
- INTRODUCTION AND ABBREVIATIONS
- Introduction
- Definition
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- A $75 billion market
- Children, teens, young adults, and Hispanics are key demographic growth drivers
- Health and wellness a key trend
- The three biggest segments continue with the decline, main growth from RTD NCBs
- Manufacturers step up efforts to participate in all NCB segments
- Need for convenience and economy drives retail trends
- Brands versus private
- Increased budgets for NCB, sampling evolves as an effective marketing tool
- Change in distribution strategies may affect consumers positively
- Sales expected to decrease at constant prices
- MARKET DRIVERS
- Obesity trends influence the non-alcoholic beverage market
- Figure 1: Prevalence of overweight and obesity among adults aged 20+, 1980-2002
- Figure 2: Per capita consumption of carbonated beverages, bottled water and sports drinks, 2000-04
- Demographic influences
- Children and teens
- Figure 3: Consumption of non-alcoholic beverages by adults, teens, and pre-teens, January-September 2005
- Figure 4: US children and teen population and projections, by age, 2001-11
- Young adults
- Figure 5: Incidence of consumption of selected RTD beverages in the past seven days, by type of beverage, by age, January-September 2005
- Figure 6: US population of young adults aged 18-34, 2001-11
- Ethnic population drives growth in non-alcoholic market
- Figure 7: Incidence of consumption of RTD beverages in the past seven days, by race/ethnicity, January- September 2005
- Figure 8: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2001-11
- Lifestyle trends
- Convenience
- Figure 9: Incidence of immediate consumption and take-home consumption at all channels, 1999-2004
- Figure 10: Beverage attributes driving purchase, by age, March 2006
- Health and wellness
- Figure 11: Top five positioning claims for juice and juice drinks, 2004 and 2005
- Organic positioning claims draw consumers’ attention
- Figure 12: Number of positioning claims for organic non-alcoholic beverages, 2003-05
- MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS
- Market size
- Figure 13: Total US* retail sales of non-alcoholic beverages (incl Wal-Mart), at current and constant prices**, 2001-06
- Figure 14: Graph: Total US* retail sales of non-alcoholic beverages (incl Wal-Mart), at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Sales excluding Wal-Mart
- Figure 15: US* retail sales of non-alcoholic beverages, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Figure 16: FDM* average price/gallon of selected non-alcoholic beverages, 2006
- Market trends
- Use of the moniker “Zero” for the diet beverages
- Sucralose, the most popular no-calorie sweetener
- Flavors
- MARKET SEGMENTATION
- Overview
- Figure 17: FDM* sales of non-alcoholic beverages, by segments, 2004 and 2006
- Carbonated beverages
- Regular carbonated beverages
- Figure 18: FDM* sales of regular carbonated drinks**, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Diet and mid-calorie carbonated beverages
- Figure 19: FDM sales of diet carbonated drinks, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Milk
- Figure 20: FDM* sales of milk, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Fruit juice and drinks
- Figure 21: FDM* sales of juice and juice drinks, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Bottled water
- Figure 22: FDM* sales of bottled water, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Sports and energy drinks
- Figure 23: FDM* sales of sports and energy drinks, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Coffee
- Figure 24: FDM* sales of bottled and canned tea, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Tea
- Figure 25: FDM* sales of tea, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Other non-alcoholic beverages
- Figure 26: FDM* sales of other non-alcoholic beverages, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- SUPPLY STRUCTURE
- BRAND SALES AND MARKET SHARE
- Overview
- Figure 27: FDM* sales of major manufacturers in the RTD NCB market in the US, 2003 and 2005
- Milk
- Figure 28: Selected brand sales and market share of milk at FDM* in the US, 2003 and 2005
- Regular carbonated beverages
- Figure 29: Selected brand sales and market share of regular carbonated beverages at FDM* in the US, 2003 and 2005
- Diet carbonated beverages
- Figure 30: Selected brand sales and market share of diet carbonated beverages at FDM* in the US, 2003 and 2005
- Fruit juice and drinks
- Figure 31: Selected brand sales and market share of fruit juice and juice drinks at FDM* in the US, 2003 and 2005
- Bottled water
- Figure 32: Selected brand sales and market share of bottled water at FDM* in the US, 2003 and 2005
- Sports and energy drinks
- Figure 33: Selected brand sales and market share of sports and energy drinks at FDM* in the US, 2003 and 2005
- Tea and coffee
- Figure 34: Selected brand sales and market share of tea and coffee at FDM* in the US, 2003 and 2005
- All other non-alcoholic beverages
- Figure 35: Selected brand sales and market share of other non-alcoholic beverages at FDM* in the US, 2003 and 2005
- MANUFACTURER PROFILES
- Merger and acquisition
- Cadbury Schweppes Americas Beverages (CSAB)
- Coca-Cola Company
- Dean Foods
- Fuze Beverage, LLC Company
- Hansen Natural Corporation
- Nestlé Waters North America Inc (NWNA)
- PepsiCo, Inc
- Red Bull GmbH
- ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION
- Introduction
- Cadbury Schweppes Americas Beverages (CSAB)
- Figure 36: Television spot for 7-Up Plus
- Figure 37: Television spot for Snapple white tea
- Campbell Soup Company
- Coca-Cola
- Figure 38: Television spot for Coke Zero
- Figure 39: Television spot for Coca-Cola black cherry vanilla
- Kraft
- PepsiCo
- Figure 40: Television spot for Gatorade Rain
- Ocean Spray
- Sampling: a promotion trend
- RETAIL DISTRIBUTION
- Introduction
- Figure 41: Food retail channel blurring, 2003 and 2008
- Figure 42: Number of household trips annually, by channel, 2001-04
- Figure 43: Number of regular stores and supercenters operated by Wal-Mart, 2000-06
- Figure 44: Choice of retail channels for RTD beverages, February 2006
- Figure 45: US retail sales of non-alcoholic beverages, by channel, 2004 and 2006
- Figure 46: Non-alcoholic beverage retail market share, 2006
- Supermarkets
- Figure 47: US supermarket sales of non-alcoholic beverages, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Decline in three major segments—milk, carbonated beverages, and fruit juice and drinks
- Figure 48: US supermarket sales of milk, carbonated beverages and fruit juice and drinks, 2001-06
- Drug stores
- Figure 49: US drug store sales for non-alcoholic beverages, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Mass merchandisers
- Figure 50: US mass merchandiser sales* of non-alcoholic beverages, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Convenience stores
- Figure 51: US convenience store sales of non-alcoholic beverages, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- More competitive pricing
- Growth in private labels and use of exclusive brands
- Beverage performance by segment
- Vending
- Figure 52: US vending machine sales of non-alcoholic beverages, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- FUTURE AND FORECAST
- FUTURE TRENDS
- Niche demographics will drive maximum growth
- Innovation geared towards health and wellness will be the key growth driver
- Line extensions targeting niche consumer groups will continue to drive growth
- Hybrid innovations—need for clear positioning
- Packaging trends will reduce information processing time for consumers
- Regular soda may become a niche beverage
- Experiential and interactive marketing—evolving marketing tools
- Effect of changing distribution strategies on consumers
- Brands will outpace private labels through differentiation
- Retailers may use exclusive distribution as a means to generate consumer loyalty
- MARKET FORECAST
- Non-alcoholic beverages
- Figure 53: Forecast of total US sales of non-alcoholic beverages, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Figure 54: Graph: Forecast of total US sales of non-alcoholic beverages, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Forecast factors
- APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
AbstractThe report covers sales of drinks primarily for home consumption, and does not include foodservice sales.
In the non-alcoholic beverages market, consumers exhibit polarizing behavior of either moving to premium beverages, which exhibit varying degrees of differentiation, or to the low-priced beverages, mainly private labels, which are perceived as commodities. Private label bottled water, which the consumer has come to view as a commodity, in 2003-05 generated FDM sales growth of nearly 24%, exceeding the 21% sales growth of PepsiCo’s Aquafina, the bestselling national brand.
The $82 billion non-alcoholic beverage market displayed sales growth of 16% between 2001 and 2006. In 2005, the market was driven by consumers’ inclination to decrease calories in their beverage intake. As a result, the main growth came from non-carbonated beverage segments such as bottled water, ready-to-drink tea and coffee, and sports and energy drinks. These segments experienced strong sales growth of 59% (combined increase for these sectors at current prices) between 2001 and 2005. At the same time, the three biggest segments—milk, carbonated beverages and fruit juice and drinks—which account for over 70% of FDM sales of all non-alcoholic beverages, experienced a combined sales decline of 4% between 2001 and 2005.
The retail landscape has been affected by the need for convenience and economy. Supermarkets are estimated to account for nearly 56% (the highest market share) of channel sales. However, this channel has lost an estimated 3.5-percentage point market share to the other channels (primarily supercenters) between 2004 and 2006. On the other hand, according to ACNielsen, the average number of household trips annually to supercenters increased from 18 in 2001 to 27 in 2004.
In this report, Mintel clearly identifies the principal external factors driving or curtailing growth. Six years of specific sales data provide a factual and impartial presentation of the market as a whole. Mintel also evaluates the performance of individual sectors in the market, and provides information about the major companies and brands. Using the SPSS forecasting package, Mintel creates a five-year forecast of U.S. retail sales, revealing potential opportunities for growth and product development.
For the purposes of this report, the following non-alcoholic drinks have been included:
- carbonated soft drinks (CSD), including cola and non-cola, regular and diet bottled water
- coffee, including ground/whole bean, instant/freeze-dried, international flavored instant, espresso/cappuccino tea, including ready-to-drink (RTD), refrigerated, bagged, loose and instant
- thirst quenchers and sports/activity drinks such as Gatorade or Powerade
- sparkling water, seltzer and natural sodas such as Mistic, Orangina, and San Pellegrino
- milk, including low-fat/skim, whole, chocolate/other flavored, buttermilk, organic and soy
- fruit juice and juice drinks
- instant hot cocoa mix
- powdered soft drinks such as Kool-Aid and Country Time, sweetened and unsweetened
- tomato and other vegetable juices
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