The Pain Market Outlook to 2011

Published by: Business Insights

Published: Jun. 1, 2006 - 206 Pages

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Patient potential

Global market analysis

Analysis of potential future blockbusters

Leading players in the global pain market

Chapter 1 Patient potential

Summary

Introduction

Neuropathic pain

Lower back pain

Background

Diagnosis, treatment and management

Epidemiology

Neuralgia/fibromyalgia

Background

Diagnosis, treatment and management

Epidemiology

Diabetic neuropathic pain

Background

Diagnosis, treatment and management

Epidemiology

Pain associated with multiple sclerosis

Background

Diagnosis, treatment and management

Epidemiology

Nociceptive pain

Arthritic pain

Background

Diagnosis, treatment and management

Epidemiology

Post-operative pain

Background

Diagnosis, treatment and management

Epidemiology

Cancer-related pain

Background

Diagnosis, treatment and management

Epidemiology

HIV related pain

Background

Diagnosis, treatment and management

Epidemiology

Chapter 2 Global market analysis

Summary

Introduction

Pain market analysis

Leading brands in the global pain market

Opioid market analysis

Leading brands in the global opioid market

Long-acting opioid market analysis

Key brands analysis

Short-acting opioid market analysis

Key brands analysis

Class sales forecast to 2011

Non-opioid market analysis

Leading brands in the non-opioid market

Key brands analysis

Class sales forecast to 2011

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs

Leading brands in the NSAID market

Key brands analysis

Class sales forecast to 2011

Cox-II inhibitor market analysis

Leading brands in the COX-II inhibitor market

Key brands analysis

Class sales forecast to 2011

Anti-convulsants market analysis

Leading brands in the anti-convulsant market

First-generation anti-convulsants

Key brands analysis

Second-generation anti-convulsants

Key brands analysis

Class sales forecast to 2011

Global pain market forecasts to 2011

Chapter 3 Analysis of potential future blockbusters

Summary

Introduction

Major approaches to R&D

Leading drugs in development

Drug profiles

Phase II pipeline drugs

NW-1029 (ralfinamide)

Phase III pipeline drugs

Tapentadol (CG5503/R33133)

Bicifadine

Transacin (NGX-4010)

Neurodex (dectromorphan/quinidine)

Chronogesic (sufentanil)

Lacosamide

M6G (morphine-6-glucuronide)

Licofelone (ML3000)

Recently marketed drugs

Lyrica (pregabalin)

Prialt (ziconotide)

IONSYS (fentanyl iontophoretic transdermal system)

DepoDur (morphine)

Prexige (lumiracoxib)

Forecast sales potential

Chapter 4 Leading players in the global pain market

Summary

Introduction

Global market shares

Pfizer

Marketed products

R&D compounds

Pain portfolio forecasts to 2011

Johnson & Johnson

Marketed products

R&D compounds

Pain portfolio forecasts to 2011

Novartis

Marketed products

R&D compounds

Pain portfolio forecasts to 2011

GlaxoSmithKline

Marketed products

R&D compounds

Pain portfolio forecasts to 2011

Mundipharma Int.

Marketed products

R&D compounds

Pain portfolio forecasts to 2011

Abbott

Marketed products

R&D compounds

Pain portfolio forecasts to 2011

Boehringer Ingelheim

Marketed products

R&D compounds

Pain portfolio forecasts to 2011

Sanofi-Aventis

Marketed products

R&D compounds

Pain portfolio forecasts to 2011

Chapter 5 Appendix

IMS sales data

Index

Glossary

List of Figures

Figure 1.1: Types of diabetic neuropathy

Figure 1.2: Types of pain in multiple sclerosis

Figure 1.3: Types of nociceptive cancer-related pain

Figure 1.4: Sources of nociceptive HIV-related pain

Figure 2.5: Competitive dynamics of the global pain market by drug class, 2005

Figure 2.6: Competitive dynamics of the leading products in the global pain market, 2005

Figure 2.7: Competitive dynamics of the leading opioid products in the global pain market, 2005 64

Figure 2.8: Competitive dynamics of the leading non-opioid products in the global pain market, 2005

Figure 2.9: Competitive dynamics of the leading NSAID products in the global pain market, 2005 85

Figure 2.10: Competitive dynamics of the leading COX-II inhibitor brands in the global pain market, 2005

Figure 2.11: Competitive dynamics of the leading anti-convulsant products in the global pain market, 2005

Figure 3.12: Leading recently launched products and late-stage R&D compounds indicated for the treatment of pain, 2006

Figure 4.13: Key players in the global pain market, 2001 and 2005

List of Tables

Table 1.1: Estimated prevalence of neuropathic and nociceptive pain in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2005

Table 1.2: Estimated prevalence of neuropathic lower back pain in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2005

Table 1.3: Forecast prevalence of neuropathic lower back pain across the seven major markets, 2005-11

Table 1.4: Estimated prevalence of neuralgia/fibromyalgia pain in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2005

Table 1.5: Forecast prevalence of neuralgia/fibromyalgia across the seven major markets, 2005- 11

Table 1.6: Estimated prevalence of diabetic neuropathic pain (DNP) in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2005

Table 1.7: Forecast prevalence of diabetic neuropathic pain across the seven major markets, 2005-11

Table 1.8: Estimated prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2005

Table 1.9: Forecast prevalence of pain associated with multiple sclerosis across the seven major markets, 2005-11

Table 1.10: Estimated prevalence of OA-related pain in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2005

Table 1.11: Estimated prevalence of RA pain in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2005

Table 1.12: Forecast prevalence of OA and RA related pain across the seven major markets, 2005- 11

Table 1.13: Estimated prevalence of post-operative pain in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2005

Table 1.14: Forecast prevalence of post-operative pain across the seven major markets, 2005-11

Table 1.15: Estimated prevalence of cancer-related pain in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2005

Table 1.16: Forecast prevalence of cancer-related pain across the seven major markets, 2005-11

Table 1.17: Estimated prevalence of HIV-related pain in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2005

Table 1.18: Forecast prevalence of HIV-related pain across the seven major markets, 2005-11

Table 2.19: Breakdown of the global pain market by drug class, 2001-05

Table 2.20: Leading brands in the global pain market, 2004-05

Table 2.21: Leading brands in the global opioid market, 2004-05

Table 2.22: Sales forecasts for opioids in the global pain market, 2005-11

Table 2.23: Leading non-opioid products in the global pain market, 2004-05

Table 2.24: Sales forecasts for non-opioids, 2005-11

Table 2.25: Leading NSAIDs in the global pain market, 2004-05

Table 2.26: Sales forecasts for NSAIDs in the global pain market, 2005-11

Table 2.27: Leading COX-II inhibitor brands in the global pain market, 2004-05

Table 2.28: Sales forecasts for COX-II inhibitors, 2005-11

Table 2.29: Leading anti-convulsant products in the global pain market, 2004-05

Table 2.30: Sales forecasts for anti-convulsants in the global pain market, 2005-11

Table 2.31: Sales forecasts in the global pain market, 2005-11

Table 3.32: Sales forecasts for key recently launched products and R&D compounds, 2005-11

Table 4.33: Key players in the global pain market, 2005

Table 4.34: Pfizer’s marketed pain portfolio, 2005

Table 4.35: Pfizer’s pain R&D pipeline, 2006

Table 4.36: Forecast sales for Pfizer’s pain portfolio, 2005-11

Table 4.37: J&J’s marketed pain portfolio, 2005

Table 4.38: J&J’s pain R&D pipeline, 2006

Table 4.39: Forecast sales for J&J’s pain portfolio, 2005-11

Table 4.40: Novartis’ marketed pain portfolio, 2005

Table 4.41: Novartis’ pain R&D pipeline, 2006

Table 4.42 Forecast sales for Novartis’ pain portfolio, 2005-11

Table 4.43 GSK’s marketed pain portfolio, 2005

Table 4.44: GSK’s pain R&D pipeline, 2006

Table 4.45: Forecast sales for GSK’s pain portfolio, 2005-11

Table 4.46: Mundipharma’s marketed pain portfolio, 2005

Table 4.47: Forecast sales for Mundipharma’s pain portfolio, 2005-11

Table 4.48: Abbott’s marketed pain portfolio, 2005

Table 4.49: Abbott’s pain R&D pipeline, 2006

Table 4.50: Forecast sales for Abbott’s pain portfolio, 2005-11

Table 4.51: Boehringer Ingelheim’s marketed pain portfolio, 2005

Table 4.52: Forecast sales for Boehringer Ingelheim’s pain portfolio, 2005-11

Table 4.53: Sanofi-Aventis’ marketed pain portfolio, 2005

Table 4.54: Sanofi-Aventis’ pain R&D pipeline, 2006

Table 4.55: Forecast sales for Sanofi-Aventis’ pain portfolio, 2005-11

Abstract

• Within the pain therapy market there remains a substantial unmet need for drugs with improved efficacy and superior side-effect profiles, however there are few novel drugs in the pipeline and companies are heavily dependent on reformulations of existing drugs targeting better drug delivery, more convenient dosing schedules and specific patient populations.
• Over the 2001-05 period, the global pain market expanded at a CAGR of 7.9%, accounting for a net growth in sales of $9,571m. While the pain market has experienced several years of continuous growth, over 2004-05 sales dropped by 7.0% due to the withdrawal from the market of COX-II inhibitors, Vioxx and Bextra for safety reasons. Sales in this drug class plummeted by 66.2% in 2005.
• Currently the pain market is led by the anti-convulsant class, which accrued sales of $11,574m in 2005 with the majority of revenue being derived from off-label use. Although the anti-convulsant class will maintain its leading position through 2010, future growth in the pain market will be driven by a small number of blockbuster drugs and the re-uptake of COX-II inhibitors
• Pfizer’s current dominance of the pain market is forecast to continue through 2011 due to the evolving success of its blockbuster drug, Celebrex and the recent launch of Lyrica, which promises market success comparable to its predecessor, Neurontin.

• Which new compounds are forecast to gain rapid market penetration and which indications are forecast to see the greatest levels of development from new therapies?
• How have recent patent expiries affected blockbuster brands such as Duragesic, Ultram, OxyContin, and Celebrex?
• Which products were the key performers in the pain market in
2005 and what were the factors underpinning their performance?
• Which companies are best positioned to succeed in the global pain market over the period 2005-11 and why?
• How will the composition of the pain market change over the period 2005-2011 and how will recent and future events affect the major drug classes?
• How have the withdrawals of Cox-II inhibitors, Vioxx and Bextra, impacted the pain market at a brand, drug class and company level?

• Identify the pain indications with the greatest growth prospective and key factors impacting their prevalence, enabling you to align your portfolio to meet patient needs.
• Understand how recent events are affecting the performance of major products and discover how their marketers are confronting competitive changes in the pain marketplace.
• Gain a competitive edge, identify your main competitors and discover critical success factors, ensuring you are up-to-date with market developments and can exploit emerging opportunities.
• Analyze up-to-date global IMS sales data with comprehensive information on current marketed products and key brands, allowing you to assess your organization’s position in the competitive market-place.
• Predict future top selling products by examining detailed product forecasts, future patent expiries and current innovation in the pain market.

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