The Diabetes Market Outlook to 2011 : Market Research Report

The Diabetes Market Outlook to 2011

Published: May. 1, 2006 - 176 Pages

Executive Summary: Patient potential; Global market analysis; Analysis of potential future blockbusters; Leading players in the global diabetes market
Chapter 1 Patient potential: Summary; Introduction; Disease description; Prevalence of diabetes; Incidence; Mortality; Diagnosis; Treatment
Chapter 2 Global market analysis: Summary; Introduction; Market analysis by country; Anti-diabetic licensing trends; Antidiabetic drug classes; Leading brands in the global diabetes market; Key events in the global diabetes market, 2005-6; The insulin market; Oral anti-diabetics (OADs); Other drugs
Chapter 3 Analysis of potential future blockbusters: Summary; Introduction; Key trends in R&D; Profiles of key insulin pipeline compounds; Product forecasts
Chapter 4 Leading players in the global diabetes market: Summary; Introduction; Novo Nordisk; Takeda; Sanofi-Aventis; GlaxoSmithKline; Eli Lilly; Servier; Merck KGaA; Bayer; Novartis; Bristol-Myers Squibb
Chapter 5 Appendix: IMS data; Index
List of Figures: Figure 1.1: Estimated number of new cases of diagnosed type 2 diabetes in people aged 20 or; over, by age group in the US, 2005; Figure 1.2: Diabetes mortality in the US, 1999-2003; Figure 2.3: Global diabetes market share by geography, 2005; Figure 2.4: Sales of types of antidiabetic brands, 2004-5; Figure 2.5: Breakdown of global diabetes sales by drug class, 2004-5; Figure 2.6: Competitive dynamics of the leading 10 brands in the global diabetes market, 2004-; Figure 2.7: Innovation in drug delivery technology, 2005-6; Figure 2.8: Competitive dynamics of the global insulin market, 2004-5; Figure 2.9: Competitive dynamics of OADs in the global diabetes; Figure 3.10: Positive and negative factors affecting forecasted sales of antidiabetics; Figure 3.11: Expected patent expiry dates for major antidiabetics in the US, Japan and EU, 2006-; 2015; Figure 4.12: Competitive dynamics of the leading players in the global diabetes market, 2005; Figure 4.13: Novo Nordisk’s antidiabetic sales, 2005; Figure 4.14: Takeda’s antidiabetic sales, 2005; Figure 4.15: Sanofi-Aventis’ antidiabetic sales, 2005; Figure 4.16: GSK’s antidiabetic sales, 2005; Figure 4.17: Lilly’s antidiabetic sales, 2005; Figure 4.18: Servier’s antidiabetic sales, 2005; Figure 4.19: Merck KGaA’s antidiabetic sales, 2005; Figure 4.20: Bayer’s antidiabetic sales, 2005; Figure 4.21: Novartis’s antidiabetic sales, 2005; Figure 4.22: Bristol-Myers Squibb’s antidiabetic sales, 2005
List of Tables: Table 1.1: Prevalence of overweight and obese adults by country, 2005-11; Table 1.2: Prevalence of Type 1 & 2 diabetes in the 7 major markets, 2004-5; Table 1.3: Prevalence of Type 1 diabetes in the 7 major markets, 2005-11; Table 1.4: Prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in the 7 major markets, 2005-11; Table 2.5: Global diabetes market sales by country/region, 2001-5; Table 2.6: Leading brands in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 2.7: Characteristics of the key types of insulin; Table 2.8: Fast-acting insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 2.9: Intermediate insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 2.10: Long-acting insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 2.11: Intermediate and fast-acting insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 2.12: Intermediate and long-acting insulin analogs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 2.13: Insulin devices in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 2.14: Human insulin and analogs sales forecast, 2005-11; Table 2.15: Thiazolidiniones in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 2.16: Sulfonylureas in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 2.17: Biguanides in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 2.18: Combined sulphonylurea and biguanide antidiabetics in the global diabetes market,; 2004-5; Table 2.19: Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 2.20: Glitazone and other oral antidiabetics in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 2.21: Other oral antidiabetics in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 2.22: OAD sales forecast, 2005-11; Table 2.23: Other drugs in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 3.24: Expected product launch dates, 2005-11; Table 3.25: Current diabetes trials, 2000-9; Table 3.26: Human insulin and analogs sales forecast, 2005-11; Table 3.27: OAD sales forecast, 2005-11; Table 4.28: Leading players in the global diabetes market, 2004-5; Table 4.29: Novo Nordisk’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5; Table 4.30: Novo Nordisk’s diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006; Table 4.31: Takeda’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5; Table 4.32: Takeda’s diabetes R&D product portfolio, 2006; Table 4.33: Sanofi-Aventis’ diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5; Table 4.34: Sanofi-Aventis’ diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006; Table 4.35: GSK’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5; Table 4.36: GSK’s diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006; Table 4.37: Lilly’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5; Table 4.38: Lilly’s diabetes R&D product portfolio, 2006; Table 4.39: Servier’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5; Table 4.40: Servier’s diabetes R&D product portfolio, 2006; Table 4.41: Merck KGaA’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5; Table 4.42: Merck KGaA’s diabetes R&D product portfolio, 2006; Table 4.43: Bayer’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5; Table 4.44: Bayer’s diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006; Table 4.45: Novartis’ diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5; Table 4.46: Novartis’ diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006; Table 4.47: Bristol-Myers Squibb’s diabetes product portfolio, 2004-5; Table 4.48: Bristol-Myers Squibb’s diabetes R&D product pipeline, 2006

Abstract

Diabetes mellitus is a chronic metabolic disorder that is caused by a failure of the body to produce insulin and/or an inability of the body to respond adequately to circulating insulin; type 1 diabetes occurs most often in children or young adults and accounts for 5-10% of the diagnosed diabetes patient population. Type 2 diabetes, or adult-onset diabetes, accounts for 90-95% of diagnosed diabetes cases worldwide, typically developing in middle-aged adults. There are several risk factors associated with type 2 diabetes including age, obesity, high blood pressure, genetics, level of exercise, and a history of cardiac disease. Type 2 diabetes is more prevalent than type 1 and is growing at a faster rate across the 7 major markets, with a forecast prevalence of 49.2m people in 2011, compared to 39.4m people in 2005. Drivers for increased type 2 prevalence include the aging demographic profile and an increase in obesity. Diabetes is the sixth leading cause of death in the US (based on number of death certificates, NIDDK). The global diabetes market was worth $18.6bn in 2005, which was an 11.5% increase from 2004 sales of $16.6bn. The US has the dominant share in the global diabetes market, with 49.6% of 2005 global sales. The large US market share is mainly due to the large population and the high prevalence of diabetes, the increasing incidence of diabetes associated with Western diets and an aging population. OADs represent 58% of the global diabetes market in 2005, with the remainder of sales being from insulins and analogs (40.1%) and other drugs with 1.9%. However, insulins and analogs have seen the largest sales growth at 17.3% in 2005. There has been a high level of innovation in drug delivery technology within the diabetes market during 2005-6. Key events include advances in inhaled insulins, funding into insulin pills, patch technology and pain free needles for injection. The top 10 leading antidiabetic brands consist of 6 OADs (Actos, Avandia, Amaryl, Basen, metformin HCl, and Avandamet) and 4 insulins (Lantus, Humalog, NovoLog/NovoRapid and Novolin 70/30/actraphane).

Key findings of the report:

The US has the dominant share in the global diabetes market, with 49.6% of 2005 global sales, this is due mainly to the high prevalence of diabetes in the US, the increasing incidence of diabetes associated with Western diets and an aging population.
TZDs are the market leading class of OADs, and consist of pioglitazone and rosiglitazone, with the dominant leading brands being Takeda/Lilly’s Actos and GSK’s Avandia.
Sanofi-Aventis’ Lantus is the highest selling insulin, with sales of $1,490.4m in 2005, and a high growth rate of 47.5%. Lantus has high sales mainly due to its positive effects on lipid profiles and its side effect of weight loss.
The global diabetes market has seen a high level of innovation, particularly in non-invasive methods of insulin delivery, including inhalable, oral and patch technology. These non-invasive methods are seen as favorable by patients and are likely to result in an increase in compliance, thus improving glycemic control and leading to a reduction in diabetic complications.
There are 3 key new OAD classes; PPAR agonists, GLP-1 agonists/DPP IV inhibitors, and amlinomimetic agents. High forecasted sales are anticipated in 2011 for the GLP-1 agonist Exenatide LAR and the DPP-IV inhibitor Galvus at $2,902.9m and $1,228.7m, respectively.

Key questions answered in this report

Which country has the highest prevalence of type 1 and 2 diabetes?
What were the key events in the global diabetes market in 2005-6?
What drug classes within the diabetes market are outperforming and underperforming the current market sales growth?
What are the current and future leading brands in the global diabetes market?
Who are the leading players in the market and what are their drivers and resistors of growth?
What strategies are the leading companies implementing to protect off patent drugs and extend product lifecycles?
What are the major diabetes drugs expected to go off patent in the next 5 years?

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The Diabetes Market Outlook to 2011

Table of Contents

Abstract