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Dining Out Review: Quick Service Restaurants - USPublished by: Mintel International Group Ltd. Published: Jan. 1, 2006 - 117 Pages Table of ContentsIntroduction and Abbreviations Introduction Other relevant reports Definition Abbreviations & Terms Abbreviations Terms Executive Summary Led by McDonald’s, market grows year-in, year-out Burger segment grows but loses share to sandwich segment Sandwich chains retain room for growth despite aggressive expansion New product introductions focus on bread, breakfast and chicken Marketing is dichotomous: health obsession and its backlash Age and ethnicity determine frequency of QSR attendance Asian expansion serves as model for ethnic food branding Forecast favors continued growth from sandwiches and Mexican concepts Market Drivers Time and money constraints make fast food desirable Figure 1: Relationship of QSR visitation frequency to lifestyle, May 2004-May 2005 The unhealthy option Figure 2: Relationship of QSR visitation frequency to concern about nutrition, May 2004-May 2005 Budgetary constraints drive sales Convenience trend Burger chains recover from price wars and introduce new products Figure 3: Graph: Growth of unit price of McDonald’s Big Mac sandwich and growth in sales per McDonald’s unit, 2000-05 (est) Low franchise fees and health trend drive explosive sandwich segment growth at the expense of burgers Figure 4: Graph: Number of U.S. units and average sales per unit for subway, 1999-2004 Figure 5: Graph: Number of U.S. units and average sales per unit for Quiznos, 2001-04 Shift from “low-carb” to “right carbs” Demographics Impact of age on QSR Figure 6: U.S. population by age, 2000-10 Figure 7: Attitudes towards fast food, by age, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 8: Graph: Attitudes towards nutrition and fast food by age, May 2004-May 2005 The impact of children on QSR The differing impact of race/ethnicity on fast food Figure 9: U.S. population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2000-10 Figure 11: Attitudes towards fast foods and fast food restaurant visits, by race/ethnicity, May 2004-May 2005 The impact of gender on QSR Figure 12: Attitudes towards eating, nutrition and fast food, by gender, May 2004-May 2005 Market Size & Trends Market size Figure 13: Retail sales of QSRs at current and constant prices, 2000-05 Figure 14: Graph: Retail sales of QSRs at current and constant prices, 2000-05 Trends in food Healthy foods (and backlash) Chicken Premium and fresh offerings Figure 15: Menu Insight’s list of marketing claims of fresh and crispy menu items (on lunch/dinner menus), Q1-Q4 2005 Figure 16: Menu Insights list of premium marketing claims as a fpercentage of all offerings (on lunch/dinner menus), Q4 2005 Premium breads Breakfast 99-cent meals Market Segmentation Introduction Figure 17: Domestic QSR sales, by restaurant type, 2003 & 2005 Figure 18: Graph: Domestic QSR sales, by restaurant type, 2005 Figure 19: Graph: Indexed growth by market segment, 2000-05 Burgers & Beef Figure 20: Domestic sales of quick service burger restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2000-05 Chicken Figure 21: Domestic sales of quick-service chicken restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2000-05 Sandwiches Figure 22: Domestic sales of quick-service sandwich restaurants at current and constant prices, 2000-05 Mexican Figure 23: Domestic sales of quick-service Mexican restaurants at current and constant prices, 2000-05 Other Figure 24: Domestic sales of all other QSRs, at current and constant prices, 2000-05 Supply Structure Introduction Figure 25: U.S. sales of leading QSR chains, 2002 and 2004 Figure 26: Graph: U.S. sales of Top 6 QSR chains, 2005 (est) Burger and beef chains Figure 27: New premium offerings by beef and burger chains, 2004 and 2005 McDonald’s Burger King Wendy’s Arby’s Sonic Drive-In Sandwiches Subway Quiznos Chicken KFC Chick-fil-A Popeye’s Church’s Chicken Mexican Taco Bell Del Taco Other Long John Silver’s Captain D’s Panda Express Advertising & Promotion Introduction Figure 28: Graph: Ad expenditures of leading QSR chain in dollars and as percentage of sales, 2004 Campaigns McDonald’s Burger King Wendy’s KFC Taco Bell Subway The Consumer Introduction Who visits fast food restaurants and how often Figure 29: Incidence and frequency of fast food restaurant visits, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 30: Incidence and frequency of fast food restaurant visits, by age, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 31: Incidence and frequency of fast food restaurant visits, by household income, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 33: Incidence and frequency of fast food restaurant visits, by geographic region, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 34: Incidence and frequency of fast food restaurant visits, by number of people in the household, May 2004-May 2005 Popularity of different types of fast food Figure 35: Types of fast food restaurants visited, by age, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 36: Types of fast food restaurants visited, by household income, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 37: Types of fast food restaurants visited, by race/ethnicity, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 38: Types of fast food restaurants visited by frequency of QSR visits, May 2004-May 2005 Which meal is eaten at fast food restaurants Figure 39: Meals eaten at fast food restaurants, by age, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 40: Meals eaten at fast food restaurants, by race/ethnicity, May 2004-May 2005 With whom fast food restaurants are visited Figure 41: With whom fast food restaurants are visited, by gender, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 42: With whom fast food restaurants are visited, by age, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 43: With whom fast food restaurants are visited, by race/ethnicity, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 44: With whom fast food restaurants are visited, by presence of children in the household, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 45: With whom fast food restaurants are visited, by meal, May 2004-May 2005 Brand appeal to specific demographics Figure 46: Most visited fast food chains, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 47: Indexed visits to selected fast food chains, by age, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 48: Indexed visits to selected fast food chains, by race/ethnicity, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 49: Indexed visits to selected fast food chains, by household income, May 2004-May 2005 Lifestyle, health, diet, and visits to QSRs Figure 50: Frequency of QSR visits by opinions regarding eating, nutrition and lifestyle, May 2004-May 2005 Where fast food is eaten Figure 51: Method of food ordering and place of consumption, by age, November 2005 Figure 52: Method of food ordering and place of consumption, by geographic region, November 2005 Cohort analysis Figure 53: Cohort descriptors for relevant qsr usage extrapolations Figure 54: Attitudes towards fast food and average number of visits by cohort, May 2004-May 2005 Figure 55: Attitudes towards fast food and average number of visits by cohort, May 2004-May 2005 Teens and fast food Figure 56: Incidence and frequency of fast food restaurant visits, by teens, May 2004-May 2005 Popularity of different types of fast food among teens Figure 57: Types of fast food restaurants visited by teens, by age and gender, May 2004-May 2005 How often teens eat fast food Figure 58: Frequency of fast food visits by teens, by age and gender, May 2004-May 2005 Whom teens eat with Figure 59: With whom fast food restaurants are visited by teens, by age and gender, May 2004-May 2005 Kids and fast food Figure 60: Fast food restaurant visits by kids, May 2004-May 2005 Kids’ favorite fast food chain Figure 61: Kids’ favorite fast food restaurants, by race/ethnicity, May 2004-May 2005 Parents’ attitudes towards kids and fast food Figure 62: Attitudes towards kids and fast food, by gender of parent, November 2005 Figure 63: Attitudes towards kids and fast food, by age of parent, November 2005 Figure 64: Attitudes towards kids and fast food by geographic region, November 2005 Attitudes of QSR users vs. non-QSR users Figure 65: Attitudes towards health and dining, by frequency of QSR usage, November 2005 Menu preferences Figure 66: Attitudes towards menu preferences, by frequency of QSR usage, November 2005 Reasons for fast food chain loyalty Figure 67: Reasons a favorite fast food restaurant is preferred, by age, November 2005 Figure 68: Reasons a favorite fast food restaurant is preferred, by household income, November 2005 Summary Future and Forecast Future trends The aging population Figure 69: U.S. population projections, by age, 2005-10 Differentiation through backlash Sandwich chain growth stabilizes Fast Asian foods on the rise Increased focus on packaging and easy to consume menu-items Frozen food offerings from QSR concepts Market forecast Quick-service restaurants Figure 70: Forecast of total U.S. sales of quick-service restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2005-10 Figure 71: Forecast of total U.S. sales of quick-service restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2005-10* Quick-service burger restaurants Figure 72: Forecast of U.S. sales of quick-service burger restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2005-10 Figure 73: Forecast of U.S. sales of quick-service burger restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2005-10* Quick-service chicken restaurants Figure 74: Forecast of U.S. sales of quick-service chicken restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2005-10 Figure 75: Forecast of U.S. sales of quick-service chicken restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2005-10* Quick-service sandwich restaurants Figure 76: Forecast of U.S. sales of quick-service sandwich restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2005-10 Figure 77: Forecast of U.S. sales of quick-service sandwich restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2005-10* Quick-service Mexican restaurants Figure 78: Forecast of U.S. sales of quick-service Mexican restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2005-10 Figure 79: Forecast of U.S. sales of quick-service Mexican restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2005-10* Other quick-service restaurants Figure 80: Forecast of U.S. sales of other quick-service restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2005-10 Figure 81: Forecast of U.S. sales of other quick-service restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2005-10* Forecast Factors Appendix: Trade Associations Appendix: Simmons cohorts Figure 82: Married couples cohorts Figure 83: Single women cohorts Figure 84: Single men cohorts Appendix: Research Methodology Consumer Research Datascension, Inc. and Harris Interactive Service Bureau Greenfield Online ICR Surveys EXCEL Simmons National Consumer Surveys Technometrica TechnoExpresssm Trade Research Informal trade research Formal trade research Desk & Internet Research Sources Definitions Forecasts Appendix: What is Mintel? Mintel Group Mintel Reports Mintel Premier Mintel GNPD Mintel Menu Insights Mintel Comperemedia Mintel Custom Solutions AbstractIn this report, Mintel clearly identifies the principal external factors driving or curtailing growth quick service restaurants. Exclusive consumer research reveals the attitudes, needs and behavior of breakfast and lunch meat consumers, with analysis broken down both by demographic characteristics, and by meat type (breakfast and lunch meats are analyzed together and separately).Six years of specific sales data provide a factual and impartial presentation of the market as a whole. Mintel also evaluates the performance of individual sectors in the market (burgers, sandwiches, chicken, etc.), and provides information about the major companies and brands. Using the SPSS forecasting package, Mintel creates a five-year forecast of U.S. retail sales in quick service restaurants, revealing potential opportunities for growth and product development. This report examines quick service commercial chain dining in the US. Quick service restaurants, also referred to as limited service restaurants or fast food restaurants, provide inexpensive food and quick service, defined by the absence of table service. Food is typically ordered and paid for at the counter or drive-through window, prior to the meal and is either eaten on-premises or taken out. Typical check sizes for this segment are $6 or less per person. The market is divided into the following market segments:
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