Crossing the River Stone by Stone: The Fallout of the Chinese Revaluation : Market Research Report

Crossing the River Stone by Stone: The Fallout of the Chinese Revaluation

Published by: IDC

Published: Aug. 17, 2005 - 22 Pages

Table of Contents
IDC Opinion
In This Study
Methodology
Situation Overview
Why Should the Significance of the Shift in the Currency Regime Be Discounted from an Economic Standpoint?
Assessing the Importance of the Regime Shift Within a Conceptual Framework
How Is the Move Expected to Play Through the Chinese Economy?
Figure: China's Major Trade Partner Export and Import Share by Region, 1Q05
The Revaluation Will Have a Miniscule Effect on China's High-Tech Exports
Table: China's High-Tech Import and Export Value, 1Q05
Table: China's Import and Export Value Share by Trading Form, 1Q05 (%)
Figure: Asia Labor Cost per Hour by Select Country, 2002?2009
Future Outlook
Assessing the Impact of the Revaluation on China's Trading Partners
Figure: Asia Total Factor Productivity Growth by Select Country, 2002?2009
Table: Yuan Revaluation Winners and Losers by Country/Region
Table: Yuan Revaluation Repercussions by Country/Region
Assessing the Impact of the Revaluation on the U.S. High-Tech Industry
Table: Specialization Coefficients for Select U.S. High-Tech Segments, 2000-2004 (%)
Essential Guidance
Learn More
Related Research
Currency Regime Definitions
International Trade Terms
A Flow of Economic Dependencies and Outcomes from an Exchange Rate Appreciation/Revaluation
Figure: The Effect of Higher Export Prices on Demand
Figure: The Effect of Revaluation on Imports
Synopsis

Abstract

This IDC study is an attempt to assess what the recently introduced exchange regime shift in China does and does not mean for China, the United States, and the global economy.

"IDC believes the changes in the exchange rate of the renminbi (RMB) will not materialize into major adjustments in international trade patterns in the near future, especially in the high-tech industry," says Anna Toncheva, program manager and economist with IDC's Worldwide IT Markets group. "From a macroeconomic perspective, the revaluation will lead to a shift in the regional contributions to global economic growth, but not a shift in its rate of acceleration."

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