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Commercial Insight: Antipsychotics - From Blockbuster Brands to Billion Dollar GenericsPublished by: Datamonitor Published: Dec. 22, 2004 - 173 Pages Table of ContentsTABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 Objective of the analysis 3 Datamonitor insight into the antipsychotics market 3 CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW 10 Market definition for this report 10 Current market situation 10 Zyprexa - the gold-standard antipsychotic 13 Strategic scoping and focus 18 CHAPTER 3 COUNTRY MARKET ASSESSMENTS 20 Current and future opportunities and threats in the antipsychotic market 20 Global opportunities and threats 20 Opportunities 20 Threats 35 US 41 Market overview 41 Opportunity 42 Threats 45 Japan 50 Opportunities 51 Threats 55 France 57 Market overview 57 Opportunity 58 Threats 59 Germany 62 Market overview 62 Opportunities 63 Threats 67 Italy 71 Market overview 71 Opportunities 72 Threats 74 Spain 76 Market overview 76 Opportunities 77 Threats 78 UK 81 Market overview 81 Opportunities 82 Threats 86 CHAPTER 4 FORECAST ANALYSIS 92 Assumptions and events 92 2004 92 Genericization of Solian 92 Launch of IM Zyprexa 93 Zyprexa approval for bipolar disorders 93 Risperdal receives approvable letter for autism 94 Risperdal approval for bipolar disorders 95 Risperdal Consta launch 95 Seroquel approval for bipolar mania 95 Geodon approved for bipolar mania 96 Abilify launch in the EU and FDA approval for bipolar mania in the US 96 Poor 2004 performance for Zyprexa 97 2005 98 Re-launch of Serdolect 98 Launch of Seroquel in France 99 Abilify lifecycle management 99 2006 100 Launch of Asenapine 100 Launch of paliperidone ER 100 Serdolect patent expiry 101 2007 102 Zomaril launch 102 Geodon US patent expiry 102 Seroquel patent expiry 103 Launch of Bifeprunox 103 2008 104 Seroquel line extension 104 Risperdal patent expiry 105 Launch of ORG-24448 106 Launch of PNU170413 107 2009 107 Launch of blonanserin 107 Abilify global patent expiry 108 Zomaril patent expiry 108 2011 109 Seroquel US patent expiry 109 Zyprexa patent expiry 110 Limitations of data 110 Forecasts 110 CHAPTER 5 COMMERCIAL IMPACT AND LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT: CASE STUDIES 111 Achieving and maintaining market leadership 111 Different strategies leading to differing definitions of market leader 111 Indication expansion 111 Reformulations 112 Specialization or generalization - Zyprexa versus Risperdal 113 Risperdal lifecycle strategies 114 Zyprexa lifecycle strategies 128 Strategies employed by Zyprexa and Risperdal 132 Lifecycle strategies - the pros, the cons and the implications 133 Choice, implementation and outcome of lifecycle strategies 135 BMS outlines future lifecycle strategies for Abilify 135 Generic threat to Zyprexa 138 Zyprexa patent challenge 138 Anticipation 139 Obviousness 139 Inequitable conduct 139 Double-patenting 140 Public use 140 Trial outcome 140 The worst case scenario - approval of generic olanzapine 141 The impact of generic olanzapine 141 APPENDIX A 145 APPENDIX B 161 AbstractIntroductionSecond Generation Antipsychotics (SGAs) continue to drive the antipsychotic market with a growth rate of 27.2% between 2002-2003, yielding revenues of over $9.5 billion in 2003 responsible for a 93.3% share of the market. However, several patent expiries and product launches are set to send the market through a period of change. Scope Overview of current market including profiles of key brands and key events impacting each brand during 2003-2004 Assessment of current and future opportunities and threats in the antipsychotics market across the seven major pharmaceutical markets Global sales for leading antipsychotic products from 1999-2003 are presented, with projections for future performance up to 2014 In-depth discussion of assumptions and events used in forecast analysis Highlights With an increasingly crowded schizophrenia market, SGA manufacturers are seeking to add new indications to their products labeling, capitalizing on the existing high off-label. Already, the majority of SGAs are approved for bipolar mania, and many have or are in the process of gaining approval for bipolar maintenance, as well as other niche areas. Zyprexa, the market leading SGA, is currently experiencing patent challenges from numerous generics manufacturers. Datamonitor believes it is likely that Lilly will prevail in the courts, although, if generic incursion occurs in 2005, the SGA market could look very different. The extreme interest in this market place by generics manufacturers is unsurprising. The SGA market currently includes three blockbuster brands with Abilify joining this select club in 2005. Datamonitor forecasts that three of the generic molecules will see blockbuster revenues by 2013. Reasons to Purchase Quantify future size and scope of antipsychotics market and potential for new products Understand key drivers to this market and predict future performance of these compounds Identify hot areas of the market not targeted by competitors Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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