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The Future of Competition in B2B Energy Supply: Competitive Forces in Europe's I&C MarketsPublished by: Datamonitor Published: Dec. 1, 2004 - 61 Pages Table of ContentsTABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12 Introduction 12 Summary of findings 12 Sizing Europe’s B2B Energy Markets 12 Assessing the Competitive Environment 12 Key Country Profiles 14 Competitor Analysis 14 Emerging Competitive Arenas 15 CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION 23 Report objectives and target reader 23 Research methodology 23 Report structure and content 24 CHAPTER 3 SIZING EUROPE’S B2B ENERGY MARKETS 25 Introduction 25 Key findings 25 Europe’s energy markets: a three-tier structure 26 Top tier 27 Middle tier 28 Bottom tier 30 CHAPTER 4 ASSESSING THE COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT 32 Introduction 32 Key Findings 32 Datamonitor’s Market Competitive IntensityÔ index 33 The competitive implications of MCIÔ ratings 34 MCIÔ ratings of Europe’s top six markets 35 Cross-border constraints 36 Economic barriers to entry 37 CHAPTER 5 KEY COUNTRY PROFILES 38 Introduction 38 Key findings 38 The UK 39 Growing retail concentration 39 Leading utilities are getting bigger 39 Germany 41 Need for a regulator and improved network access 41 The “big four” retain a stranglehold on the market 41 France 43 EDF’s might is stifling competition 43 Still no level playing field in sight 43 Italy 45 Enel still dominates 45 A fresh challenge 45 Spain 47 Power/gas convergence 47 Threats to the Endesa/Iberdrola duopoly 47 The Netherlands 49 A competitive B2B retail market 49 Full ownership unbundling? 49 CHAPTER 6 COMPETITOR ANALYSIS 51 Introduction 51 Key Findings 51 EDF: increased financial strain 52 E.ON: realising gas/power synergies 53 RWE: multi-utility business model 54 Vattenfall: pondering future in the home market 55 Electrabel: preparing to lose monopoly status in Belgium 56 Enel: harder times lie ahead 57 Endesa: tougher domestic competition awaits 58 CHAPTER 7 EMERGING COMPETITIVE ARENAS 59 Introduction 59 Key findings 59 Europe’s energy markets fall into four distinct types 60 Competition no guarantee of a level playing field 60 Oligopoly does not preclude opportunities for new players 61 An emerging European “Champions League” 62 A strong domestic base required for membership 62 Challenged on their own turf 63 Western Mediterranean the biggest battleground 64 APPENDIX 65 Margin estimation methodology 65 Market competitive intensity estimation methodology 65 Ease of Third Party Access - 20% of the total 66 Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - 10% of the total 67 Wholesale market fragmentation - 15% of the total 67 Retail market fragmentation - 15% of the total 68 Traded market maturity - 10% of the total 68 Access to market information & assistance - 5% of the total 69 Consumer representation - 5% of the total 69 Propensity to switch - 10% of the total 70 Additional information 70 Related research 70 Research contact 70 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Estimated eligible non-residential market (electricity and gas) vs. size of the economy, 2005 26 Table 2: Geographic positioning of the main players vis-à-vis each other 63 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: The factors comprising Datamonitor’s Market Competitive IntensityÔ Index 13 Figure 2: Key areas of B2B competitive tension to 2006 and beyond 16 Figure 3: GDP vs. B2B power market, 2005f: top tier 27 Figure 4: GDP vs. eligible B2B power market, 2005f: middle tier 28 Figure 5: GDP vs. total B2B power market, 2005f: middle tier 29 Figure 6: GDP vs. eligible B2B power market, 2005f: bottom tier 30 Figure 7: GDP vs. total B2B power market, 2005f: bottom tier 31 Figure 8: The factors comprising Datamonitor’s Market Competitive IntensityÔ Index 33 Figure 9: A scale for market assessment 34 Figure 10: Relative degree of competitive intensity in the power energy markets, 2004 35 Figure 11: Europe’s main power and gas bottlenecks 36 Figure 12: Estimated incumbent vs. new entrant margins 37 Figure 13: Key factors of market competitiveness in the UK 39 Figure 14: Key factors of market competitiveness in Germany 41 Figure 15: Key factors of market competitiveness in France 43 Figure 16: Key factors of market competitiveness in Italy 45 Figure 17: Key factors of market competitiveness in Spain 47 Figure 18: Key factors of market competitiveness in the Netherlands 49 Figure 19: SWOT analysis of EDF 52 Figure 20: SWOT analysis of E.ON 53 Figure 21: SWOT analysis of RWE 54 Figure 22: SWOT analysis of Vattenfall 55 Figure 23: SWOT analysis of Electrabel 56 Figure 24: SWOT analysis of Enel 57 Figure 25: SWOT analysis of Endesa 58 Figure 26: Competitive outlook of key markets, 2004-07 61 Figure 27: Key areas of B2B competitive tension to 2006 and beyond 64 Figure 28: Scale for market assessment - effectiveness of regulator 66 Figure 29: Scale for market assessment - ease of Third Party Access 66 Figure 30: Scale for market assessment - effectiveness of balancing & data transfer 67 Figure 31: Scale for market assessment - wholesale market fragmentation 67 Figure 32: Scale for market assessment - retail market fragmentation 68 Figure 33: Scale for market assessment - traded market maturity 68 Figure 34: Scale for market assessment - access to market information & assistance 69 Figure 35: Scale for market assessment - consumer representation 69 Figure 36: Scale for market assessment - propensity to switch 70 AbstractIntroductionThe markets profiled in the report are assessed from the viewpoint of effective competition that has developed, and of the remaining. On the basis of this competitor overview on the one hand, and of Datamonitor's assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the main players in this arena on the other, we forecast the main developments in the region's competitive landscape to 2006 and beyond. Scope Covers all Western European and most of the Central and Eastern European power markets, focusing on UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain & Netherlands. Sizes Europe's 6 largest eligible B2B power markets including analyses the drivers and current state of competition in the 6 key ones (as above). Analysis is based on Datamonitor's proprietary models - Market Competitive Intensity (MCI) and Economic Feasibility of Market Entry (EFME) indices. The main players' competitive positioning is assessed on the basis of the Emerging Competitive Arena (ECA) model identifying the main battlegrounds. Highlights Of Europe's 6 leading markets, the UK has the most competitive B2B energy market, and the only one where the residential segment verges on being genuinely competitive. The Dutch market is also competitive in the B2B segment. The other 4 top markets do not yet allow effective competition in end-user supply, while wholesale competition is possible. Another obstacle to effective competition is the difficulty for new entrants to grow organically, as represented, e.g., by the gap between typical profit margins achievable by incumbent suppliers and new entrants. This gap is especially wide in France, while the Netherlands, the UK and, increasingly, Spain, have more favorable entry conditions. The competitive landscape in the European power sector is increasingly being dominated by "national champions" spawned by one of the region's top-tier markets: France (EDF), Germany (E.ON and RWE), Italy (Enel) and Spain (Endesa). The seeming exceptions to the "large home market" rule are Belgian-based Electrabel and Swedish-based Vattenfall. Reasons to Purchase In-depth assessment of the competitive situation and future trends in Europe's leading B2B power markets based on the proprietary MCI and EFME models. SWOT analysis of Europe's top 7 power utilities, augmented with medium-term forecasts of the competitive landscape based on the proprietary ECA model. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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