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Commercial Insight: Antihypertensives - Can Manufacturers Maintain Value?

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: Oct. 22, 2004 - 89 Pages


Table of Contents


TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

Objective of the analysis 3

Datamonitor insight into the hypertension market 4

CHAPTER 2 CURRENT MARKET ASSESSMENTS 9

Strategic scoping and focus 9

Market definition for this report 10

Antihypertensive drug classes 11

Global overview 19

Global: current market assessment 20

National markets 26

Leading global brands 27

Market issues 28

US: current market assessment 41

Overview 41

Market issues in the US 42

Japan: current market assessment 45

Overview 45

Market issues in Japan 46

European Union: current market assessment 48

Overview 48

Market issues in the EU5 49

Summary of environmental issues affecting antihypertensive market size 55

CHAPTER 3 FORECAST ANALYSIS 56

Assumptions and events 56

Ongoing trends 56

Trial results 56

New product launches 59

Patent expiries 60

ARB patent expiries 61

CCB patent expiries 63

Beta-blocker patent expiries 63

ACE inhibitor patent expiries 64

Other patent expiries 65

Additional indications 65

Methodology 67

Forecasts 67

CHAPTER 4 COMMERCIAL IMPACT AND LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT: CASE STUDIES 68

Introduction 68

Clinical trials 69

Gaining novel additional indications 73

Entry strategy 76

APPENDIX A - MARKET DATA AND MAJOR BRAND KEY FACTS 80

Global hypertension market data 80

Therapeutic classification 80

APPENDIX B 83

Bibliography 83

Report methodology 85

General 85

Japan sales data 85

ATC codes 85

Key opinion leaders 85

About Datamonitor 86

About Datamonitor Healthcare 86

About the Cardiovascular Disease analysis team 87

Disclaimer 88

Glossary 89





Abstract

Introduction
The antihypertensive market accounted for almost $30 billion in the seven major markets in 2003 and this value is set to rise as prevalence increases. The increasing use of multiple drug therapy and the falling use of older drug classes in the absence of specific compelling indications is continuing to drive sales of the largest classes and will provide a growing market for an new entrants.

Scope
Country specific event-driven sales forecasts for the period 2004-14 for the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK and Global overview
Patient potential and prescribing trends overview of the antihypertensive market based on historical sales data and future key events
Profiles of the country and market specific issues which will impact future sales in the market including generic erosion and class switching
Case studies presenting the effect of launch strategy into the ARB market, additional indications and outcome-based clinical trials
Highlights
The antihypertensive market has seen continuing growth driven by increasing global prevalence and more aggressive treatment allow it to grow to a 30 billion dollar market in 2003, these trends are set to continue but as governments seek to reduce healthcare spending antihypertensives will come under scrutiny as a source of savings.

Patent expiries of major brands will be the leading events shaping the future of the antihypertensives market in the period until 2014, the global market leader, Norvasc, and the fastest growing class, ARBs, will both face genericization during this period, driving down costs and encouraging switching from older classes.

Datamonitor forecasts that combination products will drive sales in the ARB class once key product patent expiries force allow genericization of plain formulation products, however physicians are often cynical of manufacturers motives for producing these combinations and the benefits to patients must be highlighted to maintain physician confidence.

Reasons to Purchase
Identify possible future strategy to maximize product potential and minimize risks for the ARB market
View independent, event-driven forecasts for key antihypertensive products and classes across the seven major markets
Assess the impact of the Norvasc patent expiry on the market and identify which CCBs, if any, could benefit from the increased competition



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