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Published by: Mintel International Group Ltd.
Published: Aug. 1, 2004 - 137 Pages
Table of Contents
Introduction and Abbreviations
Lack of trust restricts the market
An overstated market?
Definition
Socio-economic group
Lifestage and Special Groups
Advertising data
Abbreviations
Premier Insight
Executive Summary
Overweight and obese trends feed demand for low-carb diets
Over a third trying to slim, women more than men
More affluent population bodes well for more expensive diet products
Wide range of low-carb diets, other competing diets
A difficult market to quantify due to lack of reliable data
Confectionery/snack bars lead the way
Low-carb impact on other markets hard to quantify
Fragmented supply structure
Little main media promotion at present
Internet specialists still prominent but multiple retailers taking an interest
Most popular weight loss methods
Small minority currently on a low-carb diet, drop-out rates high
No shortage of potential future customers
High lapse rates need to be tackled
Wider distribution will bring them to a new audience
Market Drivers
Levels of being overweight and obese
Figure 1: Incidence of being overweight or obese among men and women, by age group, 1997 and 2001
The slimming issue
Figure 2: Adults who are trying to slim, 1980-2003
Attitudes towards food
Figure 3: Agreement with lifestyle statements about food and eating habits, 1998-2003
Attitudes towards diet and health
Figure 4: Agreement with lifestyle statements about diet and health, 1998-2003
Attitudes towards personal appearance and self-perception
Figure 5: Agreement with lifestyle statements about personal appearance and self-perception, 1998-2003
Shifts in the age structure of the UK population
Figure 6: Trends and projections in total UK population, by age group, 1999-2008
Shifts in the socio-economic structure of the UK population
Figure 7: Trends in the socio-economic structure of the UK adult population, 1999-2008
PDI and consumer expenditure
Figure 8: PDI and consumer expenditure, at current and constant 1999 prices, 1999-2008
Market Background
Low-carb diets
Atkins Nutritional Approach
The Stillman Diet
The Scarsdale Medical Diet
The Ketogenic Diet
Other diets
The Zone Diet
The Hollywood Diet
The South Beach Diet
GI Diet
The New High Protein Health Fast Food Diet
No-Grain Diet
Traditional diets
Weight Watchers
Slimming World
Rosemary Conley
Slim-Fast
Market Size and Segmentation
Limited distribution restricts quantification
Confectionery dominates sales
Impact of low-carb on other markets
Potatoes take a dive
Figure 9: Market size trends for foods not encouraged as part of a low-carb diet, 1999-2004
Eggs enjoy a boom
Figure 10: Market size trends for foods encouraged as part of a low-carb diet, 1999-2004
Comparative growth
Figure 11: Indexed growth for foods not encouraged as part of a low-carb diet, 1999-2004
Figure 12: Indexed growth for foods encouraged as part of a low-carb diet, 1999-2004
Market Trends and Issues
Main factors driving demand
Key target audience
Defining low-carb
Pricing
Attitude of major grocery multiples
The Supply Structure
Manufacturers/brand share
Companies and brands
Atkins Nutritionals (UK) Ltd
Carbolite Europe
Nestlé SA
Laboratoire N.P.C. UK Ltd
FeelingOK.net Ltd
Carbophobia Ltd
RHM Ltd
Others
Own-label
New product development
New Product Trends
Aug-04
Jul-04
Jun-04
May-04
Mar-04
Advertising and Promotion
Expenditure levels will grow
Alternative promotional tactics used
The Internet - an important promotional tool
Distribution
The key to future growth
Expansion lies in the hands of the grocery multiples
The Consumer
Methods used to lose weight
Figure 13: Ways in which consumers would try to lose weight, 2000-04
Most accept more regular exercise is best
Fat, sugar and chocolate, not carbohydrates, seen as enemy
No snacks/alcohol plus calorie control seen as answer
More exercise and less alcohol is the answer for men...
...while women focus more on diet
Reasons for going on a weight loss diet
Figure 14: Reasons for going on a weight loss diet, May 2004
Health reasons and self-esteem most popular reasons for losing weight
Men cite wellbeing, women cite their appearance
The prevalence of low-carb diets
Figure 15: Consumer behaviour relating to low-carb diets, May 2004
Small number currently on a low-carb diet
Drop-out rates are high
Still strong interest in low-carb diets for the future
Majority of adults yet to try low-carb and no plans to do so
Low-carb diets' impact on food consumption patterns
Quarter of consumers claim to consume less bread
Figure 16: Shifts in consumption of bread, May 2004
Claimed pasta consumption grows
Figure 17: Shifts in consumption of pasta, May 2004
Potato consumption appears to have slumped
Figure 18: Shifts in consumption of potatoes, May 2004
Coffee/tea consumption rises
Figure 19: Shifts in consumption of coffee/tea, May 2004
Mineral water consumption springs ahead
Figure 20: Shifts in consumption of mineral water, May 2004
Regular carbonates consumption drops
Figure 21: Shifts in consumption of regular fizzy drinks, May 2004
Diet carbonates consumption also appears to have fallen
Figure 22: Shifts in consumption of diet fizzy drinks, May 2004
Balance of lager/beer consumption is down
Figure 23: Shifts in consumption of lager or beer, May 2004
Wine or spirit consumption increases
Figure 24: Shifts in consumption of wine or spirits, May 2004
Meat and fish consumption up and not just among low-carb dieters
Figure 25: Shifts in consumption of meat, poultry and seafood, May 2004
A sea change in consumption for crisps and snacks
Figure 26: Shifts in consumption of crisps/snacks, May 2004
Low-carb fails to boost nut consumption significantly
Figure 27: Shifts in consumption of nuts, May 2004
Boom in vegetable consumption
Figure 28: Shifts in consumption of vegetables, May 2004
Fruit shows healthy growth in consumption
Figure 29: Shifts in consumption of fruits, May 2004
Consumers claim to eat fewer eggs despite low-carb boost
Figure 30: Shifts in consumption of eggs, May 2004
Milk and yogurt consumption on the rise
Figure 31: Shifts in consumption of milk and yogurt, May 2004
Slight drop in cheese consumption implied
Figure 32: Shifts in consumption of cheese, May 2004
Claimed consumption of sweet biscuits and cakes dips
Figure 33: Shifts in consumption of sweet biscuits and cakes, May 2004
Chocolate and sweet consumption also declines
Figure 34: Shifts in consumption of chocolate and other sweets, May 2004
Consumers cut back on ice cream too
Figure 35: Shifts in consumption of ice cream, May 2004
Detailed demographics
Figure 36: Most popular methods used to lose weight, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, presence of children and Mintel's Special Groups, May 2004
Figure 37: Most popular methods used to lose weight, by region, media usage, TV viewing habits and supermarket usage, May 2004
Figure 38: Other popular methods used to lose weight, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, presence of children and Mintel's Special Groups, May 2004
Figure 39: Other popular methods used to lose weight, by region, media usage, TV viewing habits and supermarket usage, May 2004
Figure 40: Most popular reasons for wanting to lose weight, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, presence of children and Mintel's Special Groups, May 2004
Figure 41: Most popular reasons for wanting to lose weight, by region, media usage, TV viewing habits and supermarket usage, May 2004
Figure 42: Other popular reasons for wanting to lose weight, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, presence of children and Mintel's Special Groups, May 2004
Figure 43: Other popular reasons for wanting to lose weight, by region, media usage, TV viewing habits and supermarket usage, May 2004
Figure 44: Experience with low-carb dieting, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, presence of children and Mintel's Special Groups, May 2004
Figure 45: Experience with low-carb dieting, by region, media usage, TV viewing habits and supermarket usage, May 2004
The Consumer - Enthusiasm, Attitudes and Typologies
Establishing diet similarities
Figure 46: Similarities in respondents' attitudes towards different weight loss methods, May 2004
Desperation or dedication?
Figure 47: Reasons for going on a weight loss diet, by number of methods used to lose weight, May 2004
Are low-carb consumers not convinced?
Figure 48: Methods used to lose weight, by personal experience with low-carb diets, May 2004
Signs of confusion
Low-carb dieters prepared to try more weight loss methods
Figure 49: Number of methods used to lose weight, by personal experience with low-carb diets, May 2004
Attitudes towards low-carb foods
Lack of knowledge restricts response
Figure 50: Attitudes towards low-carb diets, May 2004
Attitudes among low-carb dieters
Figure 51: Attitudes towards low-carb foods, by levels of personal experience with low-carb dieting, May 2004
Low-carb dieters say fewer carbs make them feel healthier
Fat is still a concern, say low-carb dieters
It's hard to keep a low-carb diet going
Multi-discipline dieters feel most strongly about low-carb issues
Figure 52: Attitudes towards low-carb foods, by number of methods used to lose weight, May 2004
Reasons for not being on a low-carb diet
Figure 53: Reasons for not being on a low-carb diet or following a low-carb lifestyle, May 2004
No need to lose weight
Safety concerns prominent
Cynicism, lack of awareness, perceptions of faddishness also act as brake
The discipline factor
Experience with low-carb dieting
Figure 54: Reasons for not being on a low-carb diet or following a low-carb lifestyle, by levels of personal experience with low-carb dieting, May 2004
Lack of self-discipline and inability to keep weight off key factors
Consumer Typologies - Assessing Target Markets
Figure 55: Low-carb consumer typologies, May 2004
Cluster 1 - Diet Ditchers (57% of sample)
Cluster 2 - No-Carb Control (25% of sample)
Cluster 3 - Low-Carb Cynics (18% of sample)
Older and wiser cynics
Figure 56: Low-carb typologies, by gender, age and socio-economic group, May 2004
Family groups may lack dietary willpower
Figure 57: Low-carb typologies, by lifestage, presence of children and Mintel's Special Groups, May 2004
Minor regional variations emerge
Figure 58: Low-carb typologies, by region, May 2004
Small differences in terms of media usage
Figure 59: Low-carb typologies, by media usage, TV viewing habits and supermarket usage, May 2004
Low-carb typologies by methods used to lose weight
Figure 60: Low-carb typologies, by number of methods used to lose weight, May 2004
Figure 61: Actions taken to lose weight, by low-carb typologies, May 2004
Reasons for losing weight by low-carb typologies
Figure 62: Reasons for losing weight, by low-carb typologies, May 2004
Experience with low-carb foods by low-carb typologies
Figure 63: Levels of experience with low-carb diets, by low-carb typologies, May 2004
Attitudes towards low-carb foods by low-carb typologies
Figure 64: Attitudes towards low-carb foods, by low-carb typologies, May 2004
Reasons for not going on a low-carb diet by typologies
Figure 65: Reasons for not going on a low-carb diet, by low-carb typologies, May 2004
Diet Ditchers: what weight problem?
No-Carb Controllers tried but couldn't stick the course
Low-Carb Cynics remained unconvinced
Detailed Demographics
Figure 66: Number of methods used to lose weight, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, presence of children and Mintel's Special Groups, May 2004
Figure 67: Number of methods used to lose weight, by region, media usage, TV viewing habits and supermarkets used, May 2004
Figure 68: Attitudes towards low-carb dieting, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, presence of children and Mintel's Special Groups, May 2004
Figure 69: Attitudes towards low-carb dieting, by region, media usage, TV viewing habits and supermarket usage, May 2004
Figure 70: Reasons for not going on a low-carb diet, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, presence of children and Mintel's Special Groups, May 2004
Figure 71: Reasons for not going on a low-carb diet, by region, media usage, TV viewing habits and supermarket usage, May 2004
The Future
No shortage of potential customers for diets in general
Encouraging levels of trial
Biggest potential: improving/proving the science
Distribution is key
Wider distribution will prompt shake-out
Greater competition will help to develop market
With competition comes promotion
It's no longer just about Atkins
Opportunity for domestic suppliers
Legislative hiccup on the horizon?
Low-carb: fad or fixture?
Forecast
Figure 72: Forecast of those with experience of low-carb diets, 2004-09
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
AbstractLow-carb diets have been in existence for many decades now but really came to prominence during the late 1990s and early part of this decade with a boom in the popularity of one particular variant, the Atkins Nutritional Approach (ANA), more commonly known as the Atkins Diet. It sprang to prominence aided by the endorsement of several celebrities, such as Jennifer Aniston and Geri Halliwell, and strong sales of Dr Atkins' books about his diet.
The market for low-carb foods - prepared foods targeting those on such diets - has been slower to take off, but is now beginning to gather pace, driven by an increased number of products, more widespread distribution including major high street outlets and stronger consumer demand.
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