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Dining Out Review: Volume II - Casual/Family Restaurants - USPublished by: Mintel International Group Ltd. Published: Jul. 1, 2004 - 104 Pages Table of ContentsINTRODUCTION AND ABBREVIATIONS Introduction Other relevant reports Definition Abbreviations and terms Abbreviations Terms EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Market showed steady growth over the review period Income the primary driver Indulgence key ingredient to dining out Casual restaurants grow in importance Market leaders are young chains in growth phases Healthy offerings on the rise Competitive field leads to variety of advertising and promotion tactics The casual/family restaurant consumer Blacks and Hispanics who dine out do so more often Dining out is a social event, with or without the kids Healthy food vs. cost savings Convenience is not the only factor affecting incidence of dining out Table service is key for family/casual restaurant diners Children important decision-makers Casual chains to grow, develop urban sites, and ethnic dishes MARKET DRIVERS Economics Figure 1: Family/casual restaurant visits, by household income, January-September 2003 Figure 2: Income growth compared to market growth, 1998-2003 Culture of dining out Relaxing by leaving cooking to the professionals An opportunity to socialize No time for cooking Figure 3: Attitudes towards daily time pressure, August 2003 Women in the workforce Figure 4: Female civilian labor force participation rates, by age group, 1998 and 2008 Employment levels Figure 5: U.S. employment, 1998-2003 Competition for to-go services Figure 6: Sources of takeout meals, 2001 and 2003 Competition for dining-in services Figure 7: Total U.S. retail sales of fast-casual restaurant chains, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003 Diet Figure 8: Dieting behavior, January-September 2003 Tourism and business travel Figure 9: Travel expenditures in the U.S., at current and constant prices, 1998-2003 MARKET SIZE & TRENDS Introduction Figure 10: Total U.S. retail sales of casual and family restaurant chains, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003 Graph 1: Trends in sales of casual/family restaurant chains, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003 Casual/family chains vs. independents Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales of all casual/family restaurants, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003 Graph 2: Trends in sales of all casual/family restaurants, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003 Leading chains head for healthy menus Takeout trends MARKET SEGMENTATION Introduction Figure 12: Sales of casual and family restaurant chains, by type of restaurant, 2001 and 2003 Graph 3: Sales of casual/family restaurant chains, by type of restaurant, 2003 Bar/Grill Figure 13: Sales of bar/grill restaurants, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003 Steak restaurants Figure 14: Sales of steak restaurants, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003 Ethnic restaurants Figure 15: Sales of ethnic restaurants, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003 Italian restaurants Figure 16: Sales of Italian restaurants, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003 Seafood restaurants Figure 17: Sales of seafood restaurants, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003 Family/Midscale Figure 18: Sales of family/midscale restaurants, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003 SUPPLY STRUCTURE Introduction Figure 19: Sales of leading casual and family restaurants in the U.S., 2001 and 2003 Leading casual/family chains Applebee's Outback Steakhouse Leading competitor Chili's Grill & Bar Red Lobster Leading competitor Denny's Olive Garden Leading competitor T.G.I. Friday's Ruby Tuesday Golden Corral On the Border Leading competitor P.F. Chang's China Bistro ADVERTISING & PROMOTION Introduction Leading casual/family chains Applebee's Red Lobster Outback Steakhouse Sports sponsorships and promotions Chili's Grill & Bar Denny's Appealing to minority customers Sports sponsorships and promotions Olive Garden T.G.I. Friday's Ruby Tuesday Golden Corral P.F. Chang's China Bistro THE CONSUMER Introduction Who visits family and casual restaurants and how often Figure 20: Family/casual restaurant visits, January-September 2003 Figure 21: Family/casual restaurant visits, by household income, January-September 2003 Figure 22: Family/casual restaurant visits, by age, January-September 2003 Figure 23: Family/casual restaurant visits, by race/ethnicity, January-September 2003 Figure 24: Family/casual restaurant visits, by presence of children, January-September 2003 Figure 25: Family/casual restaurant visits, by household size, January-September 2003 Who restaurants are visited with Figure 26: With whom family/casual restaurants are visited, January-September 2003 Figure 27: With whom family/casual restaurants are visited, by gender, January-September 2003 Figure 28: With whom family/casual restaurants are visited, by age, January-September 2003 Figure 29: With whom family/casual restaurants are visited, by race/ethnicity, January-September 2003 Attitudes towards health and diet Figure 30: Attitudes towards health and diet, by whether family or casual restaurants are visited, January-September 2003 Figure 31: Attitudes towards health and diet, by gender, January-September 2003 Figure 32: Attitudes towards health and diet, by household income, January-September 2003 Figure 33: Attitudes towards health and diet, by race/ethnicity, January-September 2003 Figure 34: Attitudes towards health and diet, by age, January-September 2003 Who has eaten at a full-service restaurant in the past week Figure 35: Types of restaurants visited in past week, February 2004 Where food is eaten Figure 36: Where restaurant food was eaten, February 2004 Where takeout food is eaten Figure 37: Where takeout food is eaten, February 2004 Attitudes and opinions of family/casual restaurant consumers Family/casual restaurant consumer habits Figure 38: Eating out habits, February 2004 Convenience, time and family/casual restaurant dining Figure 39: Opinions about time and convenience, February 2004 Economics and casual/family restaurant dining Figure 40: Opinions about fast food and money, February 2004 Service and family/casual restaurant dining Figure 41: Opinions about service and ordering, February 2004 Teens and full-service restaurants Figure 42: Family/casual restaurant visits, teens, January-September 2003 Kids and full-service restaurants Figure 43: Family/casual restaurant visits, kids, January-September 2003 How often favorite restaurant is visited Figure 44: How often kids visit favorite family or steak restaurant, January-September 2003 Conclusions FUTURE & FORECAST FUTURE TRENDS Economics likely to favor casual chains and fine dining More ethnically diverse population will put market to the test Figure 45: American households, by race/ethnicity, 2000-2010 Ethnically diverse population means more adventurous Echo Boomers Increased pressure from the fast-casual market Figure 46: Forecast of total U.S. sales of fast-casual restaurant chains, at current and constant prices, 2003-2008 Greater interest in healthy menus MARKET FORECAST Overview Figure 47: Forecast of total U.S. retail sales of casual/family restaurant chains, at current and constant prices, 2003-2008 Graph 4: Forecast trends in sales of casual/family restaurant chains, at current and constant prices, 2003-2008 Casual restaurants Figure 48: Forecast of U.S. sales of casual restaurant chains, at current and constant prices, 2003-2008 Family/Midscale restaurants Figure 49: Forecast of U.S. sales of family/midscale restaurant chains, at current and constant prices, 2003-2008 Forecast factors APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS APPENDIX: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Consumer Research Sampling & Weighting Presentation & Definition Further Analysis Trade Research Informal trade research Formal trade research Desk & Internet Research Sources Definitions Forecasts APPENDIX: WHAT IS MINTEL? Mintel Publications Mintel Services Product retrieval Retail audits Tailored research Global New Products Database Research Support/Consultancy/MIC The Mintel Information Centre (MiC) PR Research AbstractIn spite of numerous negative drivers, family and casual restaurants experienced growth of 5-6% from 2001-2003. Negative drivers included higher unemployment, slower economic growth, increased dieting, increased competition from limited-service restaurants (LSRs), and decreased tourism and business travel.The resilience of the industry is attributed to the scarcity of time for cooking available to many households and the desire to indulge in a fun, social outing driving a cultural trend towards eating more meals out in general. The question is not whether FSR chains will continue to grow, but which types of chains will show growth. Not all sectors of the market are performing equally, as family/midscale restaurants show only limited growth. This appears to be due to shifting availability of disposable income, with higher-income households favoring casual restaurants, while traditional middle-class households are more likely to trade down to quick-service restaurants (QSRs). Increased interest in adventurous and gourmet cuisine is likely to impact theme restaurants negatively in the future, as the menus and prices of these casual chains most resemble family/midscale restaurants. Ethnic restaurant chains showed dramatic growth from 1998-2000, but growth slowed in the later years of the review period. The slower growth is because the primary ethnic casual cuisine is Mexican, an arena where competition from fast-casual chains is aggressive. Fast-casual chains from numerous other ethnic cuisines are expected to proliferate through the rest of the decade, putting increasing pressure on fast-casual ethnic cuisine.
The casual chains in the best position to see strong long-term growth are casual and fine dining bar/grills, steak houses, and Italian restaurants. A number of factors will contribute to rapid growth among successful chains, including the following:
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