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PharmaVitae 2004: Shire Pharmaceuticals Global Analysis

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: Jun. 15, 2004 - 117 Pages


Table of Contents


TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4

Key findings 4

Current positioning: competitive outlook 2003 5

Future performance: growth drivers and resistors 2004-10 6

Evolution in therapeutic focus: 2003 - 10 8

Key issues facing Shire Pharmaceuticals: 2004 - 10 9

Strategic outlook 10

CHAPTER 2 GLOBAL COMPANY STRATEGY 18

Introduction to Shire Pharmaceuticals 19

Assessment of strategic position 20

Strengths 20

Weaknesses 21

Opportunities 24

Threats 25

Therapeutic foci 26

R&D productivity 30

Development opportunities 31

Organic growth 31

Partnerships/licensing 32

Mergers and acquisitions 33

Geographical expansion 36

Implications of financial position 37

CHAPTER 3 GLOBAL PORTFOLIO AND PIPELINE ANALYSIS 39

Therapy area focus in 2003 40

Business development by therapy area 42

Forecast revenue stream, 2004-10 45

Therapy area forecasts to 2010 45

CNS franchise 48

Marketed products 48

R&D compounds 62

CNS portfolio sales forecasts and forecast revenue growth 70

Gastrointestinal franchise 71

Marketed products 71

R&D compounds 76

Gastrointestinal portfolio sales forecasts and forecast revenue growth 80

Oncology franchise 81

Marketed products 81

R&D compounds 85

Oncology portfolio sales forecasts and forecast revenue growth 88

Other products 89

Marketed products 89

R&D compounds 92

Other products sales forecasts and forecast revenue growth 99

CHAPTER 4 CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT 102

Financial position, 1999 - 2003 103

Profitability, 1999-2003 103

Revenue growth 104

Cost structure 105

Liquidity, 1999-2003 106

2003 performance benchmarking 107

Business model clustering according to 2003 cost ratios 107

2003 growth and investment momentum 110

Key events shaping corporate activity, 2003-2004 111

Merger and acquisition activity 111

Corporate alliances and deals 112

Regulatory affairs 114

Other business development and news 116

CHAPTER 5 APPENDIX : SUPPORTING DATA 117

Exchange rates 117

Methodology for therapy area forecasting 118





LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Combined Shire Pharmaceuticals’s regional sales, 2003 35

Table 2: Breakdown of Shire’s ethical sales by therapy area, 2002-03 39

Table 3: Forecast sales for Shire Pharmaceuticals’s major therapy areas, 2004-10 44

Table 4: Shire Pharmaceuticals’s marketed CNS portfolio 47

Table 5: Shire Pharmaceuticals’s CNS R&D pipeline, 2003 61

Table 6: Forecast sales for Shire Pharmaceuticals’s CNS portfolio, 2004-10 69

Table 7: Shire Pharmaceuticals’s marketed gastrointestinal portfolio 70

Table 8: Shire Pharmaceuticals’s gastrointestinal R&D pipeline, 2003 75

Table 9: Forecast sales for Shire Pharmaceuticals’s gastrointestinal portfolio, 2004-10 79

Table 10: Shire Pharmaceuticals’s marketed oncology portfolio 80

Table 11: Shire Pharmaceuticals’s oncology R&D pipeline, 2003 84

Table 12: Forecast sales for Shire Pharmaceuticals’s oncology portfolio, 2004-10 87

Table 13: Shire Pharmaceuticals’s other marketed products 89

Table 14: Shire Pharmaceuticals’s other R&D products, 2004 91

Table 15: Forecast sales of Shire Pharmaceuticals’s other products portfolio, 2004-10 99

Table 16: Shire’s revenues by division, 2002-03 103

Table 17: Shire’s operating expenses, 2002-03 104

Table 18: Summary of Shire’s M&A activity, 2003-04 110

Table 19: Summary of Shire’s historical agreements, 2003-04 111

Table 20: Exchange rates, 2003 116







LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Competitive positioning of Shire Pharmaceuticals within the European pharmaceutical market, 2003 5

Figure 2: Shire Pharmaceuticals’s growth drivers and resistors, 2004-10 6

Figure 3: Evolution of Shire Pharmaceuticals’s therapeutic focus, 2003-10 8

Figure 4: R&D dependence of Shire’s sales by therapy area, 2002-10 9

Figure 5: Assessment of Shire Pharmaceuticals’s strategic position, 2004 10

Figure 6: Shire’s absolute (risk-free) and risk-adjusted product sales, 2001-2010 22

Figure 7: Development of Shire’s therapeutic strategy, 2004-2010 28

Figure 8: Breakdown of Shire Pharmaceuticals’s sales by region, 2002-03 36

Figure 9: Breakdown of Shire’s ethical sales by therapy area, 2003 40

Figure 10: Shire Pharmaceuticals’s business development by therapy area 42

Figure 11: Forecast sales for Shire Pharmaceuticals’s major therapy areas, 2004-10 46

Figure 12: US Sales of Shire’s Adderall ADHD franchise and its generic competitors 50

Figure 13: Shire Pharmaceuticals’s profitability stream, 1999-2003 102

Figure 14: Shire’s liquid assets versus total liabilities,1999-2003 105

Figure 15: R&D and S,G&A spend and COGS as a proportion of sales, 2003 107

Figure 16: Benchmarking of financial strength, 2003 109





Abstract

Introduction
This analysis examines the current position and future outlook for Shire in the ethical pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-7 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.

Reasons to Purchase
Evaluate Shire's program of rationalization and global integration following its strategic review in 2003
Assess the impact of generic competition to Shire's Adderall franchise
Benchmark Shire's performance against key rivals in the ethical pharmaceutical sector


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