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The $1,000 Human Genome - Implications for Life Science, Healthcare, and IT

Published by: IDC

Published: Mar. 26, 2004 - 40 Pages


Table of Contents




Table of Contents


IDC Opinion


In This Study


Methodology


Executive Summary


Situation Overview


Introduction


What Is the Difference Between a Draft and a Finished Sequence?


How Much Did the Human Genome Project Cost?


Who Is Currently Performing Large-Scale DNA Sequencing Projects?


How Large Is the DNA Sequencing Market?


What Are the Funding Opportunities for New DNA Sequencing Technologies?


What Are Some of the New Technological Approaches Being Developed for DNA Sequencing?


Intelligence


How Many Years Until the Cost of Sequencing a Human Genome Is in the Thousands of Dollars?


Figure: Human Genome Sequencing Cost-Reduction Time Line


How Long Until the Cost of Human Genome Sequencing Is Under $1 Million, Under $100,000, and Under $1,000?


Key Points: Time Line for the Declining Cost of Human Genome Sequencing


Figure: Years to Achieve $1 Million Human Genome


Figure: Years to Achieve $100,000 Human Genome


Figure: Years to Achieve $1,000 Human Genome


Which Technology Will Affect the Cost of Sequencing in 2 Years, 5 Years, and 10 Years?


Figure: Technological Advancements Influencing DNA Sequencing in the Next 2, 5, and 10 Years


What Are the Roadblocks Preventing the Advancement of DNA Sequencing?


Table: Technological Issues Affecting DNA Sequencing Technologies


What Bioinformatic Developments Are Needed for High-Throughput DNA Sequencing?


Figure: Bioinformatic Developments Necessary for Ultra-High-Throughput DNA Sequencing


Which Components of the Information Technology Infrastructure Will Require New Solutions?


Figure: IT Infrastructure Components Requiring Advancement for Applications


What Projects Could Be Performed if a Human Genome Costs $10 Million, $1 Million, $100,000, $10,000, or $1,000?


Table: Scientific/Medical Projects at Each Human Genome Price Point (% of Respondents)


Which Markets Would Adopt a Technology Capable of Sequencing a Human Genome for $1 Million?


Figure: Markets for $1 Million Human Genome DNA Sequencing Technology


Figure: Markets for $100,000 Human Genome DNA Sequencing Technology


Figure: Markets for $1,000 Human Genome DNA Sequencing Technology


Key Points: New Market Opportunity Adoption as the Cost of Human Genome Sequencing Declines


Figure: Price Point Required to Replace Current Sequencing Technology


At What Price Point Will a Scientist Who Is Not Sequencing Consider Genomic-Based Research?


Figure: Price Point Required for New Research Laboratory Adoption


Figure: Price Point Required for Clinical Trial Adoption


Figure: Price Point Required for Healthcare Adoption


At What Price Point Will Genome Sequencing Replace Genotyping?


Figure: Price Point Required for Whole Human Genome Sequencing to Replace SNP Genotyping


Figure: Factors Affecting Adoption of Human Genome Sequencing in Clinical Trials


Which Companies Will Impact Sequencing in 2 Years, 5 Years, and 10 Years?


Table: DNA Sequencing Technology Companies Affecting Sequencing Costs in the Next 2, 5, and 10 Years (% of Responses)


Summary


Future Outlook


Table: Forecast Assumptions for the DNA Sequencing Market, 2004-2016


Insight


Insights for the $1 Million Human Genome


Insights for the $100,000 Human Genome


Insights for the $10,000 Human Genome


Insights for the $1,000 Human Genome


Figure: Worldwide Revenue Increase in DNA Sequencing from Technologies Reducing Human Genome Sequencing Cost


Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for the DNA Sequencing Market, 2004-2016


Essential Guidance


Action


Information Technology Vendors


Life Science Equipment Manufactures


Pharmaceutical Companies and Biotechnology Companies


Start-Up DNA Sequencing Research and Development Companies


Learn More


Related Research


Synopsis




Abstract

This IDC study incorporates survey data and in-depth interviews from thought leaders in the fields of genomics, genetics, bioinformatics, and technology development. The panel consists of CEOs/presidents and chief scientific officers (CSOs) from life science technology companies, directors and lead scientists from pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, executives and directors from information technology and bioinformatic companies, senior faculty from top-tier academic and research institutes, directors and scientists from large DNA sequencing facilities, plus partners of venture capital firms investing in life science companies. This document combines the qualitative data gathered from interviews with the quantitative survey results to formulate insights and actions for IT hardware and software vendors, life science platform/equipment developers, pharmaceutical/biotechnology companies, and companies developing genomic-based technologies. Some of questions answered are: y What advancements in life science and healthcare will occur as the cost of sequencing a human genome declines? y What are the price points at which DNA sequencing will become part of drug discovery, clinical trials, and personalized medicine? y Which markets will adopt DNA sequencing technologies at each declining price point? y How long will it take to develop a faster and cheaper DNA sequencing technology, and what are the major technical issues? y What are the bioinformatic issues for ultra-high-throughput DNA sequencing, and what components of the IT infrastructure will require new solutions? y Who are the new companies developing DNA sequencing technologies, and how will the life science and DNA sequencing market react as the cost declines? Faster and cheaper DNA sequencing technologies have the potential to revolutionize science and medicine. Zachary Zimmerman, Ph.D., of Life Science Insights, an IDC company states, "Several start-up companies are trying to develop new, disruptive DNA sequencing technologies. Many see the DNA sequencing market poised for dramatic growth as personalized medicine becomes a reality and as pharmaceutical companies attempt to reduce drug development costs and improve clinical trial successes by utilizing genomic data to segment the population into specific cohorts."

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