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Low Carb - US

Published by: Mintel International Group Ltd.

Published: May. 1, 2004 - 142 Pages


Table of Contents


INTRODUCTION & ABBREVIATIONS



Introduction

Other Relevant Reports

Definition

Abbreviations and terms

Abbreviations

Terms



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY



Americans have embraced the low carb lifestyle

Americans need to lose weight

Interest in reducing carbs has followed the typical trajectory for a food trend

Consumers appear to be in the nascent stages of changing their buying patterns

Food manufacturers and retailers are increasing offerings of low carb products at a rapid pace

Low carbers plan on limiting carbs for life

Outlook appears bright



MARKET FACTORS



Diet and exercise

Diet

Figure 1: Incidence of U.S. adults trying to lose weight, maintain weight or eat fewer calories, 1996, 1998 and 2000

Exercise

Figure 2: Percent of adults exercising or eating fewer calores, 1996, 1998 and 2000

Caloric and fat intake

Figure 3: Percent of adults exercising, eating fewer calores, less fat or both to lose weight, 1996, 1998 and 2000

The majority of Americans are overweight or obese

Figure 4: Incidence of overweight and obese Americans aged 18 and older, 1994-2002

Figure 5: Prevalence of obesity among U.S. adults, by demographic group, 1991, 1995 and 2000

Children are not immune to obesity

Baby boomers and aging Americans face weight gain

Figure 6: American population by age, 1998 and 2003

Incidence of diabetes on the rise

Low carb diets beginning to reshape the image of healthy food

Low carb is following the continuum for nutrition trends

Figure 7: Flowchart of how a nutrition topic becomes mainstream

Food consumption patterns

The 'food pyramid' revised guidelines

A definition of low carb will be established



SUPPLY STRUCTURE



Low carb-focused companies/brands

Atkins Nutritionals

Keto Foods

Carbolite Foods

CarbSense

Major food manufacturers/low carb activities

Unilever Overview

Carb Options Brand

Unilever/Slim Fast

Nestlé (Stouffer's Lean Cuisine)

Hain Celestial (Carb Fit)

Other low carb activity in the food segment

Beverage manufacturers' low carb activities

Anheuser-Busch Companies (Michelob Ultra)

PepsiCo (Tropicana and Pepsi Edge)

The Coca Cola Company (Minute Maid and Coke Ultra)

Cadbury/Schweppes

Other low carb activity in the beverage segment

Restaurants and low carb activities

Ruby Tuesday's

Burger King

Subway

Other low carb activity in the restaurant segment



CATEGORY TRENDS



Introduction

Changing consumption patterns for key food products

Figure 8: Incidence of change in consumption of key food and drink products in the last year, February 2004

Traditionally high carb products

Bread

Figure 9: Changes in consumption of bread in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Bread/Wheat industry response

Pasta

Figure 10: Changes in consumption of pasta in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Pasta industry response

Potatoes and potato chips

Figure 11: Changes in consumption of potatoes in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Figure 12: Changes in consumption of potato chips in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Potato industry response

Cookies/Cake

Figure 13: Changes in consumption of cookies/cake in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Boxed foods

Figure 14: Changes in consumption of boxed foods in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Frozen meals

Figure 15: Changes in Consumption of frozen meals in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

High protein foods

Meat/Poultry/Seafood

Figure 16: Changes in consumption of meat/poultry/seafood in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Eggs

Figure 17: Changes in consumption of eggs in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Nuts

Figure 18: Changes in consumption of nuts in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Fruits and vegetables

Vegetables

Figure 19: Changes in consumption of vegetables in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Fruits

Figure 20: Changes in consumption of fruit in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Dairy products

Milk and yogurt

Figure 21: Changes in consumption of milk and yogurt in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Cheese

Figure 22: Changes in consumption of cheese in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Ice cream

Figure 23: Changes in consumption of ice cream in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Beverages

Regular soda/pop

Figure 24: Changes in consumption of regular soda/pop in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Diet soda/pop

Figure 25: Changes in consumption of diet soda/pop in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Alcohol and beer

Figure 26: Changes in consumption of alcohol and beer in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004

Sales and volume changes for key food categories

Figure 27: Sales and volume changes for key food categories, 2003 versus 2002

High carbohydrate product changes

Traditional high protein product changes

Dairy product changes



THE CONSUMER



Introduction

Low carb appeal

Figure 28: Incidence of low carb dieting, February 2004

Graph 1: Incidence of low carb dieting, February 2004

Figure 29: Incidence of low carb dieting, by gender, February 2004

Figure 30: Incidence of low carb dieting, by age, February 2004

Figure 31: Incidence of low carb dieting, by household income, February 2004

Figure 32: Incidence of low carb dieting, by race, February 2004

Figure 33: Incidence of low carb dieting, by region, February 2004

Figure 34: Incidence of low carb dieting, by presence of children, February 2004

Length of time cutting carbs

Figure 35: Length of time cutting carbs, February 2004

Graph 2: Length of time cutting carbs, February 2004

Figure 36: Length of time cutting carbs, by age, February 2004

Figure 37: Length of time cutting carbs, by education level, February 2004

Figure 38: Length of time cutting carbs, by carb dieter and carb aware status, February 2004

General attitudes toward nutrition and dieting

Figure 39: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, February 2004

Figure 40: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, by gender, February 2004

Figure 41: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, by age, February 2004

Figure 42: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, by household income, February 2004

Figure 43: Attitudes toward diet and nutrition, by low carb dieter status, February 2004

Attitudes toward low carb concepts and products

Figure 44: Attitudes toward low carb concepts and products, February 2004

Figure 45: Attitudes toward low carb concepts and products, by low carb dieter status, February 2004

Goals of low carb dieters and those identified as carb aware

Figure 46: Low carb dieter/carb aware respondent reasons for limiting carb intake, February 2004

Figure 47: Low carb dieter/carb aware respondent reasons for limiting carb intake, by gender, February 2004

Figure 48: Reasons for limiting carb intake, by low carb dieter status, February 2004

Future plans for limiting carb intake

Figure 49: Future plans for limiting carbohydrate intake, February 2004

Figure 50: Future plans for limiting carbohydrate intake, by low carb dieter status, February 2004

Graph 3: Future plans for limiting carbohydrate intake, by low carb dieter status, February 2004

Success with a low carb diet

Figure 51: Reported success using a low carb diet, February 2004

Figure 52: Reported success using a low carb diet, by gender, February 2004

Figure 53: Reported success using a low carb diet, by marital status, February 2004

Figure 54: reported success using a low carb diet, by region, February 2004

Figure 55: reported success using a low carb diet for carb dieter and carb aware respondents, February 2004

Has dining out behavior changed?

Figure 56: Dining out behavior among low carb dieters/carb aware respondents, February 2004

Figure 57: Dining out behavior, by carb dieter and carb aware status, February 2004

Summary and conclusions



THE FUTURE



A large current and potential market exists

New product introductions are on the rise

Manufacturers may consider creating low carb products for children

Diet "franchises" show no sign of abating

Taste, calories, and price matter

"Better for you," "no added sugars" and similar positioning should have merit

Government and public policy efforts will ramp up

Unit sales will serve as the bellwether for the low carb trend

Lessons from Low/No Fat

Backlash has begun



APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS



APPENDIX: NEW PRODUCT BRIEFS



Altria Group: Kraft Foods North America Carb Well Original Barbecue Sauce

American Health: Carb Answer Fudge Brownie Mix

Atkins Nutritionals: Atkins Quick Cuisine Chocolate Chip Muffin & Bread Mix

Birds Eye Foods: Birds Eye Voila! Complete Meals

Coca-Cola: Coca-Cola C2

Dean Foods: Dean's New Sour Cream Packaging

DrSoy Nutrition: Dr. Soy Snacker Low carb Snack Bar Extension

International Frozen Foods: Culinary Delights Omelet Starters

Keto Foods & Snacks: Keto Sauce Tomato Sauce Extension

Marigold Foods: Kemps Carb Promise Ice Cream

Nestlé USA: Carnation Instant Breakfast New Low Carb Energy Drink Mix

Organic Milling: Nutritious Living 40-30-30 Cereal

Rexall Sundown: Richardson Labs Carb Solutions RTD Fruit Smoothie

Russell Stover Candies: Russell Stover Low Carb Marshmallow Egg

Sara Lee Foods: Atkins Quick Cuisine Supreme Pizza

Silhouette Brands: Silhouette Skinny Carb Ice Cream Bar

Todd's Health and Fitness Products: Todd's Fit Foods Boboli Pizza-Crust Bread

George Weston Bakeries: Entenmann's Carb Counting Low Carb Sweet Goods



APPENDIX: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY



Consumer Research

Sampling & Weighting

Presentation & Definition

Further Analysis

Trade Research

Informal trade research

Formal trade research

Desk & Internet Research

Sources

Definitions

Forecasts



APPENDIX: WHAT IS MINTEL?



Mintel Publications

Mintel Services

Product retrieval

Retail audits

Tailored research

Global New Products Database

Research Support/Consultancy/MIC

The Mintel Information Centre (MiC)

PR Research







Abstract

In this report Mintel has not sought to provide a market size for the Low Carb market. Rather, this report focuses on an understanding of key food and beverage products which would likely be significantly impacted by the low carb trend (i.e., bread, potatoes, cheese, eggs, etc.). Because the low carb trend is relatively new to most consumers, providing a market size and understanding of the direct impact of this 'diet' is not possible at this stage (for most products). As a result, Mintel presents sales and unit data on key categories which have begun to experience changes. Although direct correlation cannot be made to the changes in some of these categories, it is believed that the low carb trend has played a significant role and will increasingly impact certain industries.



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