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Low Carb - USPublished by: Mintel International Group Ltd. Published: May. 1, 2004 - 142 Pages Table of ContentsINTRODUCTION & ABBREVIATIONS Introduction Other Relevant Reports Definition Abbreviations and terms Abbreviations Terms EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Americans have embraced the low carb lifestyle Americans need to lose weight Interest in reducing carbs has followed the typical trajectory for a food trend Consumers appear to be in the nascent stages of changing their buying patterns Food manufacturers and retailers are increasing offerings of low carb products at a rapid pace Low carbers plan on limiting carbs for life Outlook appears bright MARKET FACTORS Diet and exercise Diet Figure 1: Incidence of U.S. adults trying to lose weight, maintain weight or eat fewer calories, 1996, 1998 and 2000 Exercise Figure 2: Percent of adults exercising or eating fewer calores, 1996, 1998 and 2000 Caloric and fat intake Figure 3: Percent of adults exercising, eating fewer calores, less fat or both to lose weight, 1996, 1998 and 2000 The majority of Americans are overweight or obese Figure 4: Incidence of overweight and obese Americans aged 18 and older, 1994-2002 Figure 5: Prevalence of obesity among U.S. adults, by demographic group, 1991, 1995 and 2000 Children are not immune to obesity Baby boomers and aging Americans face weight gain Figure 6: American population by age, 1998 and 2003 Incidence of diabetes on the rise Low carb diets beginning to reshape the image of healthy food Low carb is following the continuum for nutrition trends Figure 7: Flowchart of how a nutrition topic becomes mainstream Food consumption patterns The 'food pyramid' revised guidelines A definition of low carb will be established SUPPLY STRUCTURE Low carb-focused companies/brands Atkins Nutritionals Keto Foods Carbolite Foods CarbSense Major food manufacturers/low carb activities Unilever Overview Carb Options Brand Unilever/Slim Fast Nestlé (Stouffer's Lean Cuisine) Hain Celestial (Carb Fit) Other low carb activity in the food segment Beverage manufacturers' low carb activities Anheuser-Busch Companies (Michelob Ultra) PepsiCo (Tropicana and Pepsi Edge) The Coca Cola Company (Minute Maid and Coke Ultra) Cadbury/Schweppes Other low carb activity in the beverage segment Restaurants and low carb activities Ruby Tuesday's Burger King Subway Other low carb activity in the restaurant segment CATEGORY TRENDS Introduction Changing consumption patterns for key food products Figure 8: Incidence of change in consumption of key food and drink products in the last year, February 2004 Traditionally high carb products Bread Figure 9: Changes in consumption of bread in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Bread/Wheat industry response Pasta Figure 10: Changes in consumption of pasta in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Pasta industry response Potatoes and potato chips Figure 11: Changes in consumption of potatoes in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Figure 12: Changes in consumption of potato chips in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Potato industry response Cookies/Cake Figure 13: Changes in consumption of cookies/cake in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Boxed foods Figure 14: Changes in consumption of boxed foods in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Frozen meals Figure 15: Changes in Consumption of frozen meals in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 High protein foods Meat/Poultry/Seafood Figure 16: Changes in consumption of meat/poultry/seafood in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Eggs Figure 17: Changes in consumption of eggs in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Nuts Figure 18: Changes in consumption of nuts in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Fruits and vegetables Vegetables Figure 19: Changes in consumption of vegetables in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Fruits Figure 20: Changes in consumption of fruit in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Dairy products Milk and yogurt Figure 21: Changes in consumption of milk and yogurt in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Cheese Figure 22: Changes in consumption of cheese in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Ice cream Figure 23: Changes in consumption of ice cream in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Beverages Regular soda/pop Figure 24: Changes in consumption of regular soda/pop in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Diet soda/pop Figure 25: Changes in consumption of diet soda/pop in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Alcohol and beer Figure 26: Changes in consumption of alcohol and beer in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004 Sales and volume changes for key food categories Figure 27: Sales and volume changes for key food categories, 2003 versus 2002 High carbohydrate product changes Traditional high protein product changes Dairy product changes THE CONSUMER Introduction Low carb appeal Figure 28: Incidence of low carb dieting, February 2004 Graph 1: Incidence of low carb dieting, February 2004 Figure 29: Incidence of low carb dieting, by gender, February 2004 Figure 30: Incidence of low carb dieting, by age, February 2004 Figure 31: Incidence of low carb dieting, by household income, February 2004 Figure 32: Incidence of low carb dieting, by race, February 2004 Figure 33: Incidence of low carb dieting, by region, February 2004 Figure 34: Incidence of low carb dieting, by presence of children, February 2004 Length of time cutting carbs Figure 35: Length of time cutting carbs, February 2004 Graph 2: Length of time cutting carbs, February 2004 Figure 36: Length of time cutting carbs, by age, February 2004 Figure 37: Length of time cutting carbs, by education level, February 2004 Figure 38: Length of time cutting carbs, by carb dieter and carb aware status, February 2004 General attitudes toward nutrition and dieting Figure 39: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, February 2004 Figure 40: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, by gender, February 2004 Figure 41: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, by age, February 2004 Figure 42: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, by household income, February 2004 Figure 43: Attitudes toward diet and nutrition, by low carb dieter status, February 2004 Attitudes toward low carb concepts and products Figure 44: Attitudes toward low carb concepts and products, February 2004 Figure 45: Attitudes toward low carb concepts and products, by low carb dieter status, February 2004 Goals of low carb dieters and those identified as carb aware Figure 46: Low carb dieter/carb aware respondent reasons for limiting carb intake, February 2004 Figure 47: Low carb dieter/carb aware respondent reasons for limiting carb intake, by gender, February 2004 Figure 48: Reasons for limiting carb intake, by low carb dieter status, February 2004 Future plans for limiting carb intake Figure 49: Future plans for limiting carbohydrate intake, February 2004 Figure 50: Future plans for limiting carbohydrate intake, by low carb dieter status, February 2004 Graph 3: Future plans for limiting carbohydrate intake, by low carb dieter status, February 2004 Success with a low carb diet Figure 51: Reported success using a low carb diet, February 2004 Figure 52: Reported success using a low carb diet, by gender, February 2004 Figure 53: Reported success using a low carb diet, by marital status, February 2004 Figure 54: reported success using a low carb diet, by region, February 2004 Figure 55: reported success using a low carb diet for carb dieter and carb aware respondents, February 2004 Has dining out behavior changed? Figure 56: Dining out behavior among low carb dieters/carb aware respondents, February 2004 Figure 57: Dining out behavior, by carb dieter and carb aware status, February 2004 Summary and conclusions THE FUTURE A large current and potential market exists New product introductions are on the rise Manufacturers may consider creating low carb products for children Diet "franchises" show no sign of abating Taste, calories, and price matter "Better for you," "no added sugars" and similar positioning should have merit Government and public policy efforts will ramp up Unit sales will serve as the bellwether for the low carb trend Lessons from Low/No Fat Backlash has begun APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS APPENDIX: NEW PRODUCT BRIEFS Altria Group: Kraft Foods North America Carb Well Original Barbecue Sauce American Health: Carb Answer Fudge Brownie Mix Atkins Nutritionals: Atkins Quick Cuisine Chocolate Chip Muffin & Bread Mix Birds Eye Foods: Birds Eye Voila! Complete Meals Coca-Cola: Coca-Cola C2 Dean Foods: Dean's New Sour Cream Packaging DrSoy Nutrition: Dr. Soy Snacker Low carb Snack Bar Extension International Frozen Foods: Culinary Delights Omelet Starters Keto Foods & Snacks: Keto Sauce Tomato Sauce Extension Marigold Foods: Kemps Carb Promise Ice Cream Nestlé USA: Carnation Instant Breakfast New Low Carb Energy Drink Mix Organic Milling: Nutritious Living 40-30-30 Cereal Rexall Sundown: Richardson Labs Carb Solutions RTD Fruit Smoothie Russell Stover Candies: Russell Stover Low Carb Marshmallow Egg Sara Lee Foods: Atkins Quick Cuisine Supreme Pizza Silhouette Brands: Silhouette Skinny Carb Ice Cream Bar Todd's Health and Fitness Products: Todd's Fit Foods Boboli Pizza-Crust Bread George Weston Bakeries: Entenmann's Carb Counting Low Carb Sweet Goods APPENDIX: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Consumer Research Sampling & Weighting Presentation & Definition Further Analysis Trade Research Informal trade research Formal trade research Desk & Internet Research Sources Definitions Forecasts APPENDIX: WHAT IS MINTEL? Mintel Publications Mintel Services Product retrieval Retail audits Tailored research Global New Products Database Research Support/Consultancy/MIC The Mintel Information Centre (MiC) PR Research AbstractIn this report Mintel has not sought to provide a market size for the Low Carb market. Rather, this report focuses on an understanding of key food and beverage products which would likely be significantly impacted by the low carb trend (i.e., bread, potatoes, cheese, eggs, etc.). Because the low carb trend is relatively new to most consumers, providing a market size and understanding of the direct impact of this 'diet' is not possible at this stage (for most products). As a result, Mintel presents sales and unit data on key categories which have begun to experience changes. Although direct correlation cannot be made to the changes in some of these categories, it is believed that the low carb trend has played a significant role and will increasingly impact certain industries.Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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