Study Summary
“3.5G and 4G 2010: The Move to Worldwide Mobile Broadband” juxtaposes the relative
strengths and weaknesses of HSPA+, WiMAX, and LTE to create quantitative and
qualitative assessments of the role each technology will play in the future. The study
examines drivers for network upgrades and the technologies that will be used to improve
network performance including MIMO, error correction, OFDMA, scheduling and
modulation, among others. It offers detailed competitive analysis of each technology that
considers technical, market and regional factors and it also delineates the deployment of
these next generation technologies on a regional basis.
Shipments and revenues are provided for LTE, WiMAX and HSPA+ handset/user
devices, femtocells and base stations. Subscribers and femtocell users and associated
service revenues are also included for each technology as are cumulative base station
deployments. WCDMA and HSDPA/HSUPA subscribers are given as are total 3.5G/4G
users, devices, base stations deployments and shipments and service and equipment
revenues.
Questions Addressed
- What impact will the global recession have upon 3.5G/4G deployments?
- Which spectrum will be used?
- Which spectrum will become available for use?
- Will HSPA+ delay LTE deployments?
- Can 802.16e make a mark in the mobile space?
- Is 802.16m too late?
- What are the distinguishing attributes of each system?
- What are the relative strengths/weaknesses of each platform?
- When will 3.5G and 4G be deployed in each market?
- What are carriers seeking from next generation deployments?
- What will the deployment curve for 4G look like through 2020?
Quantifies Through 2015
- Shipments and revenues for 802.16 infrastructure deployments, client devices and
femtocells and 802.16 subscribers and revenues
- Shipments and revenues for LTE infrastructure deployments, client devices and
femtocells and LTE subscribers and revenues
- Shipments and revenues for HSPA+ infrastructure deployments, client devices
and femtocells and HSPA+ subscribers and revenues
- WCDMA and HSDPA/HSUPA subscribers
- WiMAX, HSPA+, LTE and total 3.5G/4G femtocell users and service revenues
- WiMAX, HSPA+ and LTE base station shipments, deployments and revenues
- 3.5G /4G infrastructure deployments, client devices and femtocells and 3.5G/4G
subscribers and revenues
- 802.16, LTE and HSPA+ subscribers by region
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- 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 1.1 A Case Decided
- 1.2 Capacity Shortages
- 1.2.1 4G Spectrum Allocations- Additional Bands Globally
- 1.2.2 The LTE Spectrum Conundrum
- 1.2.3 2G and 3G Bands
- 1.2.4 4G Spectrum in Europe
- 1.2.5 4G Spectrum in North America
- 1.2.6 4G Spectrum in Japan
- 1.2.7 4G Spectrum in South Korea
- 1.2.8 4G Spectrum in Australia
- 1.2.9 4G Spectrum in the Rest of the World
- 1.3 Backhaul Remains a Bottleneck
- 1.4 HSPA+ is Very Appealing Again
- 1.5 Great Recession or Permanent Correction?
- 1.6 4G Time Frame Affected
- 1.7 WiMAX
- 1.8 Can/Will LTE be Challenged?
- 1.9 Executive Summary Figures
- 1.9.1 World 3.5G and 4G Subscribers and Revenues
- 1.9.2 World 3.5G and 4G Subscribers by Region
- 1.9.3 World 3.5G and 4G Handset Shipments, ASPs and Revenues
- 1.9.4 World 3.5G and 4G Femtocell Users and Service Revenues
- 1.9.5 World 3.5G and 4G Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues
- 1.9.6 World 3.5G and 4G Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
- 2.0 EVOLVED HIGH SPEED PACKET ACCESS (HSPA+)
- 2.1 HSPA and HSPA+ Defined
- 2.2 Standards and Committees
- 2.3 Status
- 2.4 Time to Market
- 2.5 Backers
- 2.6 Announcements/Deployments
- 2.7 HSPA Main Technologies (Releases 5 and 6)
- 2.7.1 HS-SDCH (High-Speed Shared Downlink Channel)
- 2.7.2 E-DCH (Enhanced Dedicated Channel)
- 2.7.3 Reduced Transmission Time Interval (TTI)
- 2.7.4 Scheduling and Link Adaptation
- 2.7.5 Higher Order Modulation
- 2.7.6 Hybrid ARQ and Soft Combining
- 2.8 HSPA+ Technical Attributes (Releases 7 and 8)
- 2.8.1 Modulation
- 2.8.2 Air Interface
- 2.8.3 Throughput
- 2.8.3.1 Downlink
- 2.8.3.2 Uplink
- 2.8.4 Voice Capacity
- 2.8.5 Handoffs
- 2.8.6 Latency
- 2.8.7 Intelligent Antenna Support
- 2.8.8 HSPA Release 9 Improvements
- 2.9 HSPA+ Market Factors
- 2.9.1 Upgrade Complexity
- 2.9.2 Existing Networks
- 2.9.3 Backwards Compatibility
- 2.9.4 Proven Air Interface
- 2.9.5 HSPA+ With MIMO
- 2.9.6 Economies of Scale
- 2.9.7 Low Risk Option
- 2.9.8 Recoup Investment
- 2.9.9 Uplink Budget
- 2.9.10 Evaluation
- 2.10 HSPA+ Figures and Forecasts
- 2.10.1 World WCDMA and HSDPA/HSUPA Subscribers
- 2.10.2 World HSPA+ Subscribers and Revenues
- 2.10.3 World HSPA+ Subscribers by Region
- 2.10.4 World WCDMA Device Shipments
- 2.10.5 World HSPA+ Device Shipments, Revenues and ASPs
- 2.10.6 World HSPA+ Femtocell Subscribers, Revenues and ARPU
- 2.10.7 World HSPA+ Femtocell Device Shipments, Revenues and ASPs
- 2.10.5 World HSPA+ Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
- 3.0 WiMAX 802.16
- 3.1 802.16 and WiMAX Background
- 3.2 Standards and Task Groups of Note
- 3.2.1 802.16e (802.16e-2005) - OFDMA Downlink
- 3.2.2 802.16d (802.16-2004) - Physical Layer Options
- 3.2.3 802.16h - Band Coexistence
- 3.2.4 Relay Task Group (802.16j) - Mesh Networking
- 3.3 The WiMAX Forum - Everyone has a Toe in the Water
- 3.3.1 Members
- 3.3.2 WiMAX Forum Role
- 3.3.3 Certification
- 3.4. 802.16 2004, 802.16e-2005 and WiMAX feature set
- 3.4.1 Channel Sizes
- 3.4.2 Frequency Allocations
- 3.4.3 Duplexing
- 3.4.4 Modulation
- 3.4.5 FFT Size
- 3.4.6 Mobile WiMAX Wave 1 and 2 Profiles, Key Attributes
- 3.5 Technical Considerations
- 3.5.1 Data Rates and Spectral Efficiency
- 3.5.2 WiMAX Performance
- 3.5.2.1 Summary of Limitations
- 3.5.2.2 Frequency Reuse, Handoffs and Mobility
- 3.5.2.3 Interference Management
- 3.5.2.4 Uplink (PAPR and TDD)
- 3.5.2.5 Is MIMO a Must?
- 3.5.3 Intelligent Antenna use for WiMAX
- 3.5.3.1 MIMO (Matrix A and B)
- 3.5.3.2 AAS or Beamforming
- 3.6 Market Considerations
- 3.6.1 WiMAX Base Station and CPE Pricing
- 3.6.2 Certification Expectations
- 3.6.3 Proprietary and Competing Solutions
- 3.6.4 Success of WiMAX in the WAN and PAN
- 3.6.5 Is WiMAX in the Laptop the Answer?
- 3.6.6 The Need for Dual Mode Cellular/WiMAX Devices/Chipsets
- 3.6.7 WiMAX vs. CDMA/WCDMA
- 3.6.8 WiMAX as a Hot Spot Solution
- 3.7 Leading WiMAX Carriers
- 3.7.1 Clearwire Communications
- 3.7.2 UQ Communications
- 3.7.3 Yota
- 3.8 WiMAX Figures and Forecasts
- 3.8.1 World WiMAX Fixed and Mobile Subscribers and Revenues
- 3.8.2 World WiMAX Fixed and Mobile Subscribers by Region
- 3.8.3 World WiMAX Phone, CPE and Modem Shipments, Revenues and ASPs
- 3.8.4 World WiMAX Femtocell Subscribers and Service Revenues
- 3.8.5 World WiMAX Femtocell Shipments and Revenues
- 3.8.6 World WiMAX Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
- 4.0 LONG TERM EVOLUTION (LTE)
- 4.1 Definitions: LTE and SAE
- 4.2 Drivers: LTE and SAE
- 4.3 LTE Design Goals
- 4.4 LTE Enabling Technologies
- 4.5 LTE Current Tests, Status and Time to Market
- 4.6 LTE Backers
- 4.7 LTE Contract, Carrier Announcements and Deployments in 2010
- 4.8 LTE Spectrum Allocations throughout the World
- 4.9 Technical Overview
- 4.9.1 The LTE Air Interface
- 4.9.1.1 Downlink
- 4.9.1.2 Uplink; the Pros and Cons of SC-FDMA
- 4.9.2 LTE Channel sizes
- 4.9.3 LTE Modulation
- 4.9.4 LTE Throughput Projected and Real World
- 4.9.4.1 Backhaul Upgrades Needed
- 4.9.5 MIMO, Intelligent Antenna Support
- 4.9.6 LTE Spectrum Choice
- 4.9.7 LTE Latency
- 4.9.8 Duplexing
- 4.9.9 Core Network
- 4.9.10 Other Design Goals
- 4.9.11 LTE Frequency Reuse
- 4.10 LTE Advanced
- 4.11 Femtocells
- 4.12 LTE Market Factors
- 4.12.1 Unproven Technology
- 4.12.2 Timing
- 4.12.3 Certification of User Devices
- 4.12.4 IPR and Potential Litigation
- 4.12.5 Competition
- 4.12.5.1 LTE versus HSPA+
- 4.12.5.2 LTE versus WiMAX
- 4.13 Cost
- 4.14 Installed Base
- 4.15 Risk
- 4.16 Current Macroeconomic Conditions
- 4.17 LTE in Consumer Devices
- 4.18 LTE Figures and Forecasts
- 4.18.1 World LTE Subscribers and Service Revenues
- 4.18.4 World LTE Subscribers by Region
- 4.18.2 World LTE Device Shipments and Revenues
- 4.18.3 World LTE Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
- 4.18.4 World LTE Femtocell Device Shipments, Revenues and ASP
- 4.18.5 World LTE Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
- TABLES AND FIGURES
- Table 1-1
- 3.5G and 4G Subscribers and Revenues
- HSPA+, LTE and WiMAX
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 1-2
- 3.5G and 4G Subscribers by Region
- HSPA+, LTE and WiMAX
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 1-3
- 3.5G and 4G Devices
- HSPA +, LTE and WiMAX
- Shipments, Revenues and Average Selling Price
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 1-4
- 3.5G and 4G Femtocell Users and Service Revenues
- HSPA+, LTE and WiMAX
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 1-5
- 3.5G and 4G Femtocell Shipments, Revenues and Average Selling Price
- HSPA+, LTE and WiMAX
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 1-6
- 3.5G and 4G Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
- HSPA+, LTE and WiMAX
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 2-1
- WCDMA and HSDPA/HSUPA Subscribers
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 2-2
- HSPA+ Subscribers, Revenues and Average Revenue per User
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 2-3
- HSPA+ Subscribers
- World by Region
- 2009-2015
- Table 2-4
- WCDMA Device Shipments
- All Variations of WCDMA
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 2-5
- HSPA+ Device Shipments, Revenues and Average Selling Price
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 2-6
- HSPA+ Femtocell Users and Service Revenues
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 2-7
- HSPA+ Femtocell Shipments and Revenues
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 2-8
- HSPA+ Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 3-1
- WiMAX Subscribers and Revenues
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 3-2
- Mobile WiMAX
- Subscribers World by Region
- 2009-2015
- Table 3-3
- WiMAX Device Shipments
- Revenues and Average Selling Price
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 3-4
- Mobile WiMAX
- Femtocell Users and Service Revenues
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 3-5
- Mobile WiMAX
- Femtocell Shipments and Revenues
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 3-6
- Mobile WiMAX
- Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
- World Market 2009-2015
- Table 4-1
- LTE Subscribers, Service Revenues and Average Revenue per Unit
- World Market 2010-2015
- Table 4-2
- LTE Subscribers by Region
- World Market
- 2010-2015
- Table 4-3
- LTE Device Shipments, Revenues and Average Selling Price
- World Market 2010-2015
- Table 4-4
- LTE Femtocell Users and Service Revenues
- World Market 2010-2015
- Table 4-5
- LTE Femtocell Shipments and Revenues
- World Market 2010-2015
- Table 4-6
- LTE Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
- World Market 2009-2015
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