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The Impact of the Credit Crunch on European Retail

Verdict Research Ltd
February 18, 2009
67 Pages - SKU: VERA2150097

Abstract Table of Contents Search inside this report Related Reports

Countries covered: Europe

Introduction

Verdict Research: The impact of the credit crunch on European retail analyses the state of the retail market across 27 EU member states, focusing on Grocery, DIY and Electricals. The brief explores the dynamics, growth trends and Christmas trading in France, Germany, Spain, the UK and CEE. The research also provides strategic recommendations for retailers.

Scope

Macro economic data on 27 markets, structural indicators and forecasts for each of the 27 EU countries.
Analysis of the major threats in the market, price developments and the immediate outlook for Central Eastern Europe.
Detailed chapters on five core European markets, with recent developments and future outlook.
Appraisal of strategic issues in European Grocery, DIY and Electricals.

Highlights

The EU is entering an age of frugality. Most consumers in the EU have reached the peak of private indebtedness. Unemployment rates are rising, consumer confidence is dipping and consumer credit becomes increasingly hard to find. Less debt financed consumption has the consequence of the EU now entering a phase of contracting economic activity.

Consumers will become increasingly cautious about outgoings and will think twice about where and on what they spend their money. In such an environment, retailers focused on lower price and better value products are likely to prosper. Those slow to react and adapt to changing consumer demand will struggle in the new era of frugality.

Retailers should now exploit weak currencies if possible for sourcing as well as expansion. Indeed volatile currency fluctuations could become one of the most important things to watch going forward and hedging will move into even sharper focus. Moreover domestically all retailers should look at ramping up and improving their private label offer.

Reasons to Purchase

Learn how difficult market conditions are driving competition among retailers and what the outlook for EU retail will be in the short to mid-term.
Understand how evolving consumer behaviour is forcing retailers to develop new product, sales and marketing strategies in a profoundly changed market.
Identify the remaining success stories and growth prospects of the key markets and competitors and benchmark their performance.

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Key Findings; Main Conclusions
CHAPTER 2 EUROPEAN MARKET - ECONOMIC OVERVIEW: Main Messages; GDP Top 10; GDP Top 10; GDP Top 10 Forecasts - Bleak Outlook; GDP: Midranking Eight; GDP Midranking Eight - Growth Erosion; GDP: Smaller Nine; GDP Smaller Nine - Growth Erosion Bad For Baltics; Consumer Expenditure; Structure; Inflation Falls Rapidly At End-2008; HICP Annual Averages; Savings Rate To Increase Sharply; Euro Interest Rate Turns Downward; Other Interest Rates; Unemployment - Lagging Indicator
CHAPTER 3 FOCUS ON CEE - ECONOMIC OVERVIEW: Challenging market conditions
CHAPTER 4 DEFLATION THE MAJOR THREAT: Threat of Deflation in Wider Economy; Food Prices Turn Downward
CHAPTER 5 EUROPEAN MARKET - RETAIL SPENDING: Latest Expenditure Trends; Selected Major Cases; Germany; France; UK; Spain; Netherlands; CEE
CHAPTER 6 GROCERY: Six Victims of Circumstance; Decline in Organics; Non-food; M&A Activity Virtually Stops; Format Diversification on Back Burner; Expansion Abroad Cut Off; Sale and Leaseback Deals Dry Up
CHAPTER 7 HOME RELATED SECTORS: DIY Relentless Concentration on Value; Electricals Party Over
CHAPTER 8 OUTLOOK: Outlook
CHAPTER 9 GLOSSARY: Definitions
LIST OF TABLES: Table 1: Monthly retail growth rates y-o-y Jun-Nov 2008
LIST OF FIGURES: Figure 1: GDP: Top 10 countries in European Union 2008e; Figure 2: GDP change % forecast for Top 10 EU countries 2008 & 2009; Figure 3: GDP: Midsize Eight (€100bn+) of other 17 countries in EU 2008e; Figure 4: GDP change % forecast for Midsize Eight (€100bn+) of other 17 EU countries 2008 & 2009; Figure 5: GDP: Smaller Nine (€100bn-) of other 17 countries in EU 2008e; Figure 6: GDP change % forecast for Smaller Nine (€100bn-) of other 17 EU countries 2008 & 2009; Figure 7: Consumer expenditure of Top 10 EU countries 2007; Figure 8: Countries among other 17 in EU with consumer expenditure of €18bn+ 2007; Figure 9: Countries among other 17 in EU with consumer expenditure of €18bn- 2007; Figure 10: Consumer expenditure as % of GDP 2007; Figure 11: HICP trend - Top Nine EU27 markets monthly % change Oct-Nov 2008 on 2007; Figure 12: HICP trend - Midranking EU27 markets monthly % change Oct-Nov 2008 on 2007; Figure 13: HICP trend - Bottom ranking EU27 markets monthly % change Oct-Nov 2008 on 2007; Figure 14: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - annual average growth of Top 10 EU countries 2007 & 2008; Figure 15: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - countries among other 17 in EU with annual averages over 4.5% 2007 & 2008; Figure 16: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - countries among other 17 in EU with annual averages under 4.5% 2007 & 2008; Figure 17: Gross household saving % of gross household disposable income (latest data) 2007; Figure 18: ECB interest rates 2005-2009; Figure 19: HICP annual average price inflation in eurozone vs EU 2005-2008; Figure 20: Central bank annual averages for key reference interest rates 2008; Figure 21: EU countries seasonal unemployment November 2008; Figure 22: EU HICP - monthly food price change y-o-y Jan 2007-Oct 2008; Figure 23: Oil spot price FOB weighted by estimated export volume ($/ barrel) - monthly Jan-Nov 2008; Figure 24: European retailers sales performance Christmas 2008; Figure 25: Six victims of circumstance 2009; Figure 26: Impact on non-food in grocers 2009; Figure 27: Quarterly house price trends in Estonia, Ireland, Spain and the UK 2006-2008

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The Impact of the Credit Crunch on European Retail

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