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Canadian Payments Forecast, 2009

Technology Strategies International
August 1, 2010
138 Pages - SKU: TSI2770652

Abstract Table of Contents Search inside this report Related Reports

Countries covered: Canada

Canadian Payments Forecast - 2010, is an authoritative and independent strategic review, analysis and market forecast on Canada’s payment industry. New payment segments, in particular, cross-border debit, contactless debit and credit, mobile and alternative online payments are set for extraordinary growth over the next five years. Some key findings of the research include:

The impact of the recession was felt in the payments space with cash withdrawal from ABMs, cash purchases, credit purchases and credit card cash advance volumes declining.

Online payments, cross-border payments and contactless payments were largely unaffected by the recession, and grew rapidly in 2009.

The intensity of competition is increasing in the Canadian debit payments space. MasterCard and Visa have managed to secure the support of leading issuers to launch an alternative, and more lucrative interchange-driven, debit payment product in Canada - a space currently dominated by Interac.

The merchant lobby has been highly effective in delaying the launch of scheme debit in Canada. The Credit and Debit Card Industry Code of Conduct has forced would-be issuers of alternative debit products to rethink their launch strategies.

Contactless payments have extended their reach remarkably quickly over the past year, and issuers and acquirers are undertaking a major thrust to make contactless payments ubiquitous in appropriate payment settings.

Cross-border payments are expected to increase apace, with the entry of scheme debit stimulating growth in both the outbound and inbound cross-border payments segments.

Alternative online payment mechanisms (i.e. non-credit card payments) will account for one third of all online payments made by Canadians by 2014.

Mobile payments continue to attract the interest of payment companies, banks and acquirers, especially in the face of increase smartphone usage in Canada.

Canadian Payments Forecast, 2010, is a comprehensive review, analysis and forecast of consumer payments in Canada. It identifies high growth segments in the Canadian payments market in the context of important trends, as well as recent developments in the economy and the industry. The impact of the recession is examined and key industry developments are analyzed in terms of their impact on the industry. Detailed forecasts are presented on consumer payments and related acceptance infrastructure. Prospects for mobile payments in the Canadian marketplace are analyzed in-depth.

Executive Summary
INTRODUCTION: Objectives of the Study; Research Methodology; A Note on Forecasts; Structure of the Report; Currency; Acknowledgements
THE CANADIAN ECONOMIC CONTEXT: Economic Growth; Personal Expenditure on Goods and Services; Retail Sales in Canada
PAYMENTS IN CANADA: Introduction; Cash Payments; Cheques; Debit Card Payments; Cross-border Debit; Outbound; Inbound; Credit Card Payments; Card Issuance and Circulation; Card Volumes; Cardholder Acquisition; Prepaid and Secured Credit Cards; Merchant Acceptance of Credit Cards; Online Payments and Transfers; Online Purchases; Online Payments; Defining Mobile and Contactless Payments; Contactless Payments in Canada; MasterCard PayPass; Visa PayWave; Interac and Contactless Payments; Other Contactless Initiatives; Contactless Payment Transactions; Mobile Payments in Canada; Canadian Consumer Payments in Perspective
KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE CANADIAN PAYMENTS INDUSTRY: Introduction; Fraud; Credit Card Fraud; Debit Card Fraud; Counterfeiting; Duality; Impact of Duality; Increased Regulatory Oversight; The Retailers’ Lobby; Credit Card Business Practices Regulations; The Code of Conduct; The Impact of the Code of Conduct; Payments System Review Task Force; Regulatory Oversight in Perspective; Interac’s Future
PROSPECTS FOR CONSUMER PAYMENTS IN CANADA: Introduction; Prospects for The Canadian Economy; The Outlook for Gross Domestic Product; Personal Expenditure on Goods and Services; Payments Forecasts; ABM Equipment and Transaction Forecast; Cash Payments Forecast; Cheque Payments Forecast; Debit Card Payments Forecast; Credit Card Payments Forecast; Cross-Border Debit Forecast; Online Payments Forecast; Contactless Payments Forecast; Prospects for Mobile Payments; Payment Forecasts in Context
List of Figures: Annual Change in GDP (1962 - 2009); Personal Consumption Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP (Q3 1961 - Q1 2010); Real Annual Change in GDP and Personal Expenditure (1962 - 2009); Components of Personal Consumer Expenditure (2009); Annual Growth in Components of Personal Expenditure (2004 - 2009); Canadian Retail Sales by Sector (2009); Annual Growth in Retail Sales by Sector (2005 - 2009; 2009); Canadian Banknotes and Coin in Circulation (2000 - 2009); Number of ABM’s in Canada, by Ownership (2000 - 2009); Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABM’s In Canada (2000 - 2009); Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction Volumes in Canada (2000 - 2009); Volume and Value of Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2000 - 2009); Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2000 - 2009); Number of Interac Direct Payment Users (1992 - 2009); Annual Volume and Value of Interac Direct Payment Transaction (1992 - 2009); Preferred Payment Method for Everyday Purchases in Canada (1997 - 2008); Debit Card Payment Transactions by Sector (2009); Canadian Travellers to the USA vs. USD/CAD Exchange Rate (1972 - 2009); Cross-Border Debit Transactions by Canadian Travelers to the USA (2004 - 2009); Foreign Travellers to Canada (1972 - 2009); International Travellers to Canada from China (1990 - 2009); Number of Credit Cards in Circulation in Canada (2009); Number of VISA and MasterCard Credit Cards Issued in Canada (1977 - 2009); Number of VISA and MasterCard Credit Cards Issued in Canada (2000 - 2009); Annual Volume and Retail Value of VISA/MasterCard Credit Card Transactions (1996 - 2009); VISA/MasterCard Credit Cash Advance Dollar Volumes (1977 - 2009); VISA/MasterCard Credit Card Transaction Volumes and Net Retail Dollar Volumes (1977 - 2009); Proportion of VISA and MasterCard Credit Cards in Circulation that are Active (1985 - 2009); Relative Shares of VISA and MasterCard in Canada (2009); Comparison of VISA and MasterCard Credit Card Activity in Canada (2009); Credit Card Mail Solicitations to US Households (1990 - 2009); Credit Card Mail Solicitations to Canadian Households (2007 - 2009); Canadian Credit Card Loans (1998 - 2009); Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting VISA or MasterCard (1996 - 2009); Transfer and Bill Payments by Delivery Channel (2002 - 2009); Share of Transfer and Bill Payment by Delivery Channel (2002 - 2009); Growth by Electronic Channel and Transaction Type (2002 - 2009); Total Canadian Online Sales (2000 - 2009); Selected Online Activities of Personal Internet Users in Canada (2005, 2007, 2009); Canadian Internet Purchases in the Last Three Months (December 2009); Value and Volume of Online Purchase Payments in Canada (2001 - 2009); Number of Interac Online Merchants by Category (2009 and 2010); Mobile Phone Handset Configurations for Near Field Communications; Share of Paper vs. Electronic Transactions Flowing through the ACSS - Value (1990 - 2009) 80; Share of Paper vs. Electronic Transactions Flowing through the ACSS - Volume (1990 - 2009); Share of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type in Canada (2001 - 2009); Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument (2001 - 2009); Consumer Preferences for Payment Method; Reported Incidents of Identity Theft in Canada (2007 - 2009); Credit Card Fraud in Canada (1983 - 2009); Credit Card Fraud as a Percentage of Retail and Cash Advance Dollar Volumes (1983 - 2009); Breakdown of Credit Card Fraud by Type (2009); Growth in Value of Credit Card Fraud by Type (2005 - 2009; 2007 - 2009); Debit Card Fraud in Canada (2002 - 2009); Credit and Debit Card Fraud in Canada (2002 - 2009); Face Value of Counterfeit Notes Detected (1996 - 2009); Forecast Real Growth in Canadian GDP (2010 - 2014); Canadian Consumer Confidence Index; Forecast Real Growth in Canadian GDP and PCE (2010 - 2014); Forecast Number of ABM’s in Canada (2010 - 2014); Forecast Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABM’s in Canada (2010 - 2014); Forecast of Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction volumes in Canada (2010 - 2014); Forecast Volume and Value of Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2010 - 2014); Forecast Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2010 - 2014); Forecast Number of IDP Debit Cards in Circulation and Number of IDP users (2010 - 2014); Forecast Number of IDP Terminals (2010 - 2014); Forecast Annual Volume and Value of Interac Direct Payment Transactions (2010 - 2014); Forecast Number of Credit Cards in Circulation and Number of Active Cards (2010 - 2014); Forecast Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting VISA or MasterCard (2010 - 2014); Forecast Annual Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions (2010 - 2014); Forecast Cross-Border Debit Transactions by Canadian Travellers to the USA (2010 - 2014); Forecast Value and Volume of Online Purchase Payments in Canada (2010 - 2014); Forecast Credit Card and Alternative Payments for Online Purchases (2010 - 2014); Forecast Contactless Payment Cards and Terminals (2010 - 2014); Forecast Contactless Payment Values and Volumes (2010 - 2014); Uptake of Mobile Applications: WAP Promotions vs. Pre-installation (Number of daily sessions); Forecast Share of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Payment Type in Canada (2010 - 2014); Forecast Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument (2010 - 2014); Forecast CAGR for Different Payment Instruments (2009 - 2014); Forecast Growth for Key Payment Segments (CAGR: 2009 - 2014)
List of Tables: Primary Issuers of Visa and MasterCard in Canada (2008); Credit Card Offerings of Some Major Issuers; Merchant Co-branded Credit Cards In Canada; A Selection of Secured Credit Card Issuers and Offers in Canada; A Selection of Prepaid Credit Card Issuers in Canada; Differences between Reloadable and Non-Reloadable Prepaid Credit Card Offers in Canada; Online Orders in Canada (2005 to 2009); Online Purchase Recency (December 2009); Online Shopping Website Usage by Type (December 2009); Online Payment Behaviour (December 2009); Selected Alternative Online Payment Mechanisms; Anchor PayPass Merchants in Canada (July 2010); Anchor payWave Merchants in Canada (July 2010); Mobile Payments Initiatives in Canada; Comparison of Debit Card Counterfeit Fraud in 2004 and 2009; Interac’s EMV Migration Targets; Provisions of Canadian Credit Card Business Practices Regulations; Changes to the Cost of Borrowing Regulations; Summary of Policy Elements of Credit and Debit Card Industry Code of Conduct; Payments System Review Task Force Mandate

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