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Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2012

Simba Information - Reports
September 29, 2011
196 Pages - SKU: CURP6059460

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Now in its sixth edition, Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2012 continues its tradition of providing an accurate and independent perspective on where the market for children's books is headed as well as analysis of market opportunities and pitfalls. How are publishers battling challenges such as an overall decline in reading, returns of unsold stock from retailers, the intensifying battle for shelf space, and the perplexing question of e-books pertaining to the segment?

Armed with an archive of trade book data that goes back more than 30 years, Simba's team of seasoned trade book analysts examines the market for children's books segment by segment, from youngsters to tweens to teens. In addition, Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2012 provides high-quality, unbiased market intelligence on the publishing houses, and the entire retail landscape, from independent bookstores to online outlets to big box stores.

Gain access to exclusive statistics and analysis such as:

An in-depth look at bestselling children's books drawn from the USA Today, Publishers Weekly and New York Times lists, with breakdowns of top-performing titles, authors, imprints and a comprehensive category ranking of which books are selling and which are not.
Children's e-book trend data culled from Simba's Trade E-Book Publishing 2011
Expanded analysis of the most vital facet of children's publishing: series books.
Results from Simba's surveys of independent retailers across the country rating different books and genres; as well as info on buyer profiles and behaviors.
Exclusive five-year category trends for 15 major juvenile categories.

Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2012 includes detailed strategic and financial profiles of companies such as Candlewick Press, Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins, Holtzbrinck, Houghton Mifflin, Penguin Group, Random House, Scholastic and Simon & Schuster.

This report is a critical tool in evaluating growth potential, understanding trends affecting the industry, sizing up the competition, reviewing potential partner or acquisition profiles, examining market share rankings of leading publishers, benchmarking performance, and planning short- and long-term growth strategies.

Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2012 is essential for publishing executives, M&A advisors, market analysts, and industry consultants who need to understand the business strategies driving the children's trade book publishing industry today.

Simba senior trade book analyst Michael Norris has been tapped by the New York Times, TIME and USA Today and other publications to discuss industry trends and bestseller data for the adult and children's publishing markets. Have this firsthand intelligence at your fingertips to understand buyer habits, the significance of series, and where the strengths and weaknesses lie for the top imprints in children's and young adult publishing today.

Additional Information

Stamford, CT - October 13, 2011 - A recent report by media and publishing forecast firm Simba Information expects the growth of the multibillion-dollar children's and young adult publishing market in the U.S. will be stunted in 2012 as the industry adjusts to a smaller book retailing footprint.

"Since the last edition of this report we've seen a larger number of adults buying children's books as gifts and more categories of children's books represented on bestseller lists, which is good news," said Michael Norris, senior analyst of Simba Information's Trade Books Group, commenting on the report. "The bad news is this industry is heading into its first holiday shopping season in 40 years without Borders Group as a retail partner. At this time last year, Borders had over 670 locations and about three-quarters of those were superstores. The absence of so many places to discover and buy books is going to be felt for quite a while."

According to the report, children's electronic books are still but a fraction of the market-though publishers continue to experiment with the format on platforms such as the PC, the iPad, Barnes & Noble's Nook Color and Amazon's Kindle devices. A comparatively small handful of young adult titles such as Stephenie Meyers' Twilight saga and Suzanne Collins' Hunger Games series-which are often bought and read by adults-do very well as e-books. On a whole, the children's/YA market still depends on print books-and a complicated connection between the publisher and the increasingly hard-to-reach reader.

"Adults buy the vast majority of juvenile books and give them to their children as gifts," Norris said. "Where it gets tricky is a lot of kids, particularly as they become teenagers, are more likely to read if they can choose the books themselves. Since a lot of children only spend a few minutes a week, on average, reading for leisure, parents need to sell them on the activity of reading without choosing a book that their child won't like. Anyone can make a child read, but getting a child to value reading is what's crucial for the future of this industry."

The report, Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2012, shows an exclusive, multi-year category analysis of more than a dozen key segments of the industry, a detailed demographic overview of children's book buyers, estimates on the market size of the industry through 2012, and much more.

Table of Contents
Methodology
Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children’s Book Market and Buyer: Demographics; Introduction; Who Are the Buyers?; Who’s Reading the Books?; Table 1.1: Who is Buying the Most of the Children’s/YA Titles in Your Store?; Table 1.2: When Parent(s) or Adults are buying a Children’s/YA book, who is it usually?; Table 1.3: Who is the second most likely adult buying Children’s/YA books at your store?; Table 1.4: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Adults Who Have Purchased Children’s Books; Table 1.5: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Adults with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books; Table 1.6: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Women with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books; Table 1.7: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Men with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books; Table 1.8: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandparents Who Have Purchased Children’s Books; Table 1.9: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandmothers Who Have Purchased Children’s Books; Table 1.10: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults). Grandfathers Who Have Purchased Children’s Books; Table 1.11: Describe the Gender Mix of Children’s/YA Book Buyers at Your Store; Table 1.12: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Gender; Table 1.13: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Race; Table 1.14: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Age Bracket; Table 1.15: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Education Level; Table 1.16: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Household Income; Table 1.17: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Employment Status; Table 1.18: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Region; Table 1.19: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Children’s Book Buyers by Kind of Residence; Table 1.20: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Book/Comic Consumers by Marital Status; Table 1.21: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Children’s Book by Household Children Population; Table 1.22: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Book Consumers by Age of Children in Household
Chapter 2: Trends in Children’s Book Publishing: Introduction; Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less; E-Book Adoptions Still Inconclusive; The Value of Series; Series Author Case Study: Stephenie Meyer; Series Author Case Study: J.K.Rowling; Success Still Consolidated; Trade Paperback Still The Leading Format; TV and Movie Tie-Ins Becoming More Important; Retailers and Publishers Relationships and Influence Changing; Teen Book Market Still Hot, But Children’s Gains; Table 2.1: Growth of Juvenile Trade vs. Adult Trade; Table 2.2: Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2011 vs. 2010; Table 2.3: Percentage of Children Who Read Almost Every Day for Fun; Table 2.4: Average Amount of Time Spent Reading Print Media (Books); Table 2.5: A Day in the Life of an 8-18 Year Old Media Consumer; Table 2.6: Cell Phone Content Allocation For Children; Table 2.7: Class Share of Bestsellers, 2009; Table 2.8: Class Share of Bestsellers, 2010; Table 2.9: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009; Table 2.10: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2009-June 2010; Table 2.11: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2010-June 2011; Table 2.12: Top Ten E-Books, 2009 and 2010; Table 2.13: Scholastic Revenue, FY2001-2011; Table 2.14: Average Bestselling Titles per Author; Table 2.15: What Format of Children’s/YA has been a Particularly Strong Performer in the First Half of 2008-2009-2010-2011?; Table 2.16: Top Ten Trade Categories (2006-2010); Table 2.17: How Would you Rate the Following Formats of Children’s Books in Terms of How They Sell?; Table 2.18: Children’s Titles on Weekly Bestseller Lists (NYT, USA Today); Table 2.19: When Looking at Children’s and Young Adult Titles Separately How Would you Say Your Business is Trending?
Chapter 3: Leading Authors, Books and Imprints: Introduction; New York Times Series Bestsellers; USA Today Bestsellers; Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title; Table 3.1: No. of New Children’s/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006-June 2011; Table 3.2: Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2010-June 2011; Table 3.3: Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2010-June 2011; Table 3.4: Top New York Times Series Imprints, July 2010-June 2011; Table 3.5: Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2010-June 2011; Table 3.6: Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2010-June 2011; Table 3.7: Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2010-June 2011; Table 3.8: Top 20 Authors, July 2009-June 2010; Table 3.9: Top 20 Authors, July 2010-June 2011; Table 3.10: Top 20 Imprints, July 2010-June 2011; Table 3.11: Leading Children’s Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison July 2009-June 2011; Table 3.12: Comparison of Publishers, July 2010-June 2011
Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts: Introduction; Leading Children’s Publishers; Revenue Trends; Size of the Children’s Publishing Market; Leading Children’s Publishers by Revenue; First-Half Comparisons, 2011 vs. 2010; Forecast for Balance of 2011 and Beyond; Table 4.1: Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic; Table 4.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2008-2012P; Table 4.3: Leading Children’s Publishers, 2009-2013P; Table 4.4: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Net Sales; Table 4.5: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Returns
Chapter 5: Category Trends: The Top Categories; USA Today Bestseller Data; Children’s Titles vs. All Titles Released; Children’s/YA Category Analysis; Action & Adventure; Animals; Family & Relationships; Fantasy; Graphic Novel; History; Horror; Horror & Ghost; Humor; People & Places; Religion; Schools & Education; Science Fiction; Social Issues; Social Science; Table 5.1: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2007-June 2008; Table 5.2: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009; Table 5.3: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-June 2010; Table 5.4: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2010-June 2011; Table 5.5: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009; Table 5.6: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-June 2010; Table 5.7: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2010-June 2011; Table 5.8: New Children’s/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2006-2010; Table 5.9: Select Category Ratings, Six-Year Overview; Table 5.10: Action & Adventure Bestseller Performance; Table 5.11: Vital Statistics - Action & Adventure; Table 5.12: Animals Bestseller Performance; Table 5.13: Vital Statistics - Animals; Table 5.14: Family & Relationships Bestseller Performance; Table 5.15: Vital Statistics - Family & Relationships; Table 5.16: Fantasy Bestseller Performance; Table 5.17: Vital Statistics - Fantasy; Table 5.18: Graphic Novel Bestseller Performance; Table 5.19: Vital Statistics - Graphic Novel; Table 5.20: History Bestseller Performance; Table 5.21: Vital Statistics - History; Table 5.22: Horror Bestseller Performance; Table 5.23: Vital Statistics - Horror; Table 5.24: Horror & Ghost Bestseller Performance; Table 5.25: Vital Statistics - Horror & Ghost; Table 5.26: Humor Bestseller Performance; Table 5.27: Vital Statistics - Humor; Table 5.28: People & Places Bestseller Performance; Table 5.29: Vital Statistics - People & Places; Table 5.30: Religion Bestseller Performance; Table 5.31: Vital Statistics - Religion; Table 5.32: Schools & Education Bestseller Performance; Table 5.33: Vital Statistics - Schools & Education; Table 5.34: Science Fiction Bestseller Performance; Table 5.35: Vital Statistics - Science Fiction; Table 5.36: Social Issues Bestseller Performance; Table 5.37: Vital Statistics - Social Issues; Table 5.38: Social Science Bestseller Performance; Table 5.39: Vital Statistics - Social Science
Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales: Introduction; Where Books Are Being Purchased; Mass Merchandisers and Children’s Book Retailing; Performance and Outlook of the Big Three Chains; Operating Performance at the Big Three Chains; Superstores and Small Format Store Closings; Online Bookselling; Amazon.com; The Big Three; Channel Breakdown for All Book Buyers vs. Children’s Book Buyers; Table 6.1: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends; Table 6.2: Number of Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box; Table 6.3: Bestselling Children’s Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2011; Table 6.4: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2006-2010; Table 6.5: Leading Bookstore Chains Revenue Growth, 2006-2010; Table 6.6: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2006-2010; Table 6.7: Big Three Bookstore Chains Operating Performance, 2006-2010; Table 6.8: Number of Superstore Outlets, 2006-2010; Table 6.9: Amazon’s Media Sales vs. Electronic Sales as a Percentage of Total Sales, 2007-2010; Table 6.10: Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2006-2010; Table 6.11: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer; Table 6.12: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer
Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions: Conclusions; Other Recommendations; Table 7.1: Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Child’s Reading Habits; Table 7.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2006-2011P
Profiles of Leading Children’s Book Publishers: Candlewick Press; Disney Publishing Worldwide; Hachette Book Group; HarperCollins Publishers; Houghton Mifflin Harcourt; Macmillan; Penguin Group (USA); Random House Inc.; Scholastic Corp.; Simon & Schuster Inc.

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