Mexico: AT&T and Televisa Emerge as Viable Challengers to Telmex’s Leadership in the Telecom Services Market
With revenue of US$21.5bn, or 1.9% of GDP, the telecom services market in Mexico was second only to Brazil in Latin America in 2015. Over the next five years, Pyramid Research expects Mexico’s total market revenue to grow at a CAGR of 4.3% to reach $26.5bn in 2020, making it the fastest-growing market among Latin America’s largest markets. Growth will be underpinned by the entry of new players and consolidation among existing operators, which will contribute to lower prices and enhanced geographic coverage, helping to increase Mexico’s currently low penetration levels. We expect mobile data, fixed broadband Internet and pay-TV to be the main drivers of top line revenue growth over the 2016-2020 period.
Despite the government’s claims that more than $10bn has been invested in Mexico’s telecom industry since the new law went into effect, the overall impact on service revenue has thus far been muted. In local currency, telecom services growth over the past two years has been relatively flat, while in US dollars, the market is down 21.0% as a result of the devaluation of the Mexican peso.
Of an estimated $21.5bn in total service revenue, 46.3% came from voice services, both fixed and mobile, in 2015. Though voice remains the largest revenue generator, the service is under significant pressure given the combined impact of the elimination of long-distance tariffs, the application of asymmetric interconnection rates on America Móvil, the elimination of international roaming and long-distance fees on North America-bound traffic, and rising competition, particularly from low-cost MVNOs.
In 2015 we saw companies take important steps to challenge America Móvil's leadership. AT&T acquired mobile operators Iusacell and Nextel, giving it 8.0% of mobile subscriptions (and 18.0% of mobile services revenue). Televisa acquired cable operators Cablecom and Telecable, bringing its broadband Internet and pay-TV market shares to 18.6% and 60.4%, respectively. With competitive pressures rising, operators have announced ambitious investment plans for 2016-2018.
Pyramid Research expects M&A activity in Mexico and the US to continue in 2016, with Televisa, Movistar and AT&T all looking for assets in Mexico that can accelerate the availability of quad-play offerings as well as cross-border synergies. Potential targets include the Alestra/Axtel tie-up, Maxcom and Megacable. America Móvil, for its part, may look for additional assets in the US to counter AT&T’s expansion in Mexico.
Opportunities for equipment manufacturers and software providers will be plentiful in the near term. We expect the new 700MHz wholesale LTE network to represent one of the most attractive LTE equipment opportunities in Latin America in the near term, helping to explain why vendors such as Ericsson, Nokia and Huawei have expressed interest in participating in the tender. In addition to LTE deployments, operators will also be focusing on fiber-optic network buildout, SDN/NFV opportunities and the launch of IT and cloud-based services for enterprise customers.
“Mexico: AT&T and Televisa Emerge as Viable Challengers to Telmex’s Leadership in the Telecom Services Market” provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in Mexico today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2020. It delivers deep quantitative and qualitative insight into the Mexican telecom market, analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing risk factors, based on proprietary data from Pyramid Research’s databases.
The Country Intelligence Report provides in-depth analysis of the following:
Regional context: telecom market size and trends in Mexico compared with other countries in the Latin American region.
Economic, demographic and political context in Mexico.
The regulatory environment and trends: a review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to national broadband plans and other infrastructure developments.
A demand profile: analysis as well as historical figures and forecasts of service revenue from the fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice and mobile data segments.
Service evolution: a look at changes in the breakdown of overall revenue between the fixed and mobile sectors and between voice, data and video from 2013 to 2020.
The competitive landscape: an examination of key trends in competition and in the performance, revenue market shares and expected moves of service providers over the next 18-24 months.
In-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice and mobile data services: a quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by network technology and by operator, as well as of average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.
Main opportunities: this section details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in the Mexican telecommunications market
Reasons To Buy
Gain in-depth analysis of current strategies and future trends of the Mexican telecommunications market, service providers and key opportunities in a concise format, to build proactive and profitable growth strategies.
Understand the factors behind ongoing and upcoming trends in the Mexican communications, fixed telephony and broadband markets, including the evolution of service provider market shares, to align product offerings and strategies to meet customers’ demand.
Leverage the graphical information (more than 20 charts and tables in the report based on the Pyramid Research forecast products), to gain an overview of Mexico’s telecom market.
Analysis of key telecom players in the markets and major business strategies being adopted by them, to identify the opportunities to improve market share.
Explore novel opportunities to align your product strategies and offerings to meet the requirements and succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in Mexico."