Poland - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts

Telcos and regulator step up a gear for national broadband infrastructure

BuddeComm’s annual publication, Poland - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts, provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications and digital media markets in one of Eastern Europe’s largest and most competitive markets. It includes data from the regulator’s 2010 annual report, telcos’ operating and financial data to March 2012 and market developments to mid-2012.

Economic background

Having joined the EU in mid-2004, Poland enjoyed a sustained period of economic growth until the regional financial turmoil led to declining demand for its exports, a slowdown of credit activity, and lower foreign direct investment. Nevertheless, Poland’s GDP increased by an estimated 4.5% in 2011, year-on-year, and growth of 3-4% is anticipated for 2012. Overall economic recovery has been reflected in the telecoms market, where both revenue and investment have increased steadily since 2009. This is largely supported by the strong mobile and broadband sectors which have partly compensated for falling fixed-line voice telephony revenue.

Telecom market overview

Poland’s telecoms market has been reformed in line with the policies of the EU. Competition has been introduced though the incumbent operator, the rebranded Orange Poland, retains a major share of the overall market. The fixed-line market has contracted due to the migration to VoIP and mobile alternatives. The market remains fluid, with continuing consolidation among the smaller cable operators, and with the telcos TK Telekom and Exatel due to be sold later in 2012. The main players together with the regulator have stepped up efforts and strategies to complete a national broadband infrastructure, and so benefit from trans-sector and capabilities which broadband can deliver.

Mobile market

The mobile sector is now the largest comms market in terms of revenue. High penetration rates have focussed MNOs’ attentions to mobile data services. These are set to develop swiftly in 2013 following the anticipated auction of spectrum in the 2.6GHz and 800MHz bands. LTE services will become a dominant feature of the mobile landscape, while the additional spectrum will facilitate rural broadband connectivity in coming years.

Key telecom parameters – 2010; 2013
Sector
2010
2013 (e)

Subscribers by sector (million):

Fixed broadband subscribers
5.86
6.56
Mobile broadband
3.5
9.3
Mobile phone
46.9
49.3
Fixed-line telephony
8.3
7.0

Penetration by sector:

Fixed broadband
18%
22%
Mobile
123%
128%
Fixed-line
24%
21%
(Source: BuddeComm)

Market Highlights

ASO has been confirmed for mid-2013, though satellite and digital cable TV remain the most common form of receiving TV.

The regulator’s recent agreement with Ukraine concerning the use of frequencies in the 790-862MHz band in border areas will help the development of 4G services in Poland for mobile services. The agreement follows similar ones already undertaken with Russia and Belarus.

FttX deployments remain low key though the government’s broadband policy has provisioned for network infrastructure access to promote fibre deployments.

The dominant cable UPC Polska, which merged the operations of Aster in early 2012, continues to upgrade networks, offering up to 150Mb/s. The higher data rate will help reduce customer churn to FttX networks as the latter are built out in coming years.

Further market changes are expected later in 2012 and 2013 pending the sale of some operators. This includes Polish State Railways proposed sale of TK Telekom and PGE’s sale of the regional telco Exatel.

The regulator may extend its responsibilities to include the cable sector, with a decision expected by mid-2013.

This report is essential reading for those needing high level strategic information and objective analysis on the telecom sector in Poland. It provides further information on:

Market liberalisation and regulatory issues;
The impact of the global economic crisis;
Telecoms operators – privatisation, acquisitions, new licences;
Mobile data market developments in coming years in light of spectrum auctions and new license awards;
3G developments, regulatory issues and technologies including HSPA and LTE;
Broadband migration to an FttH architecture;
Historical and current subscriber statistics and forecasts;
ARPU statistics and forecasts.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.