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Poland - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts

Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd
January 4, 2012
80 Pages - SKU: PBC6773486

Abstract Table of Contents Search inside this report Related Reports

Countries covered: Poland

Poland - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts

This report provides a comprehensive overview of trends and developments in the Polish telecommunications market. The report analyses the mobile, Internet, broadband, digital TV and converging media sectors.

Subjects include:

Market and industry analyses, trends and developments;
Facts, figures and statistics;
Industry and regulatory issues;
Infrastructure;
Major players, revenues, subscribers, ARPU, MoU;
Internet, VoIP, IPTV;
Mobile voice and data markets;
Broadband (FttH, DSL, cable TV, wireless);
Convergence and digital media;
3G subscriber and mobile ARPU forecasts to 2015;
Broadband market forecasts for selective years to 2020.

Key developments:

ASO confirmed for mid-2013; bundled services taken by 2.1 million customers; 75% of cable association PIKE subscribers can receive digital TV; licences awarded for the final four channels on the first DTTV MUX; Cyfra+ merges with digital TV platform ITI Neovision; Polkomtel sold for ?4.56 billion; SMS use grows 7%; T-Mobile and Orange Poland network sharing joint venture, NetWorkS!, approved; PTC rebrands as T-Mobile Poland; regulator announces 2012 tender for LTE in the 2.50-2.57GHz and 2.62-2.69GHz bands; Cyfrowy Polsat launches LTE; regulator signs 800MHz usage agreement with Ukraine; Cyfrowy Polsat buys the mobile TV platform operator Info TV-FM; Polkomtel launches LTE with 22% population coverage; regulator eases cuts in MTR in exchange for network investment; Liberty Global consolidates cableco leadership with Aster City purchase; UPC plans 250Mb/s cable trial, extends 150Mb/s service to 1.6 million households; Telekomunikacja Polska losing broadband subscribers yet expands new VDSL Neostrada Fiber offer; EC fines TP ?127.6 million for anti-competitive practices in the broadband market; cablecos step up network investment in 2012; re-elected government creates Ministry of Administration and Digitalisation to oversee telecom sector development; regulator's 2010 market data; operator data to September 2011.

Companies covered in this report include:

Telekomunikacja Polska, Netia, Telefonia Dialog, GTS Energis, Exatel, Telekomunikacja Kolejowa, PTK Centertel, Polkomtel, T-Mobile, P4/Play, Centernet, Mobyland, UPC Polska, Vectra, Multimedia Polska, Aster, Cyfra+, Cyfrowy Polsat, N/TNK, TVP.

Additional Information

Commercial LTE launches herald 4G growth for 2012 BuddeComm’s quarterly publication, Poland - Telecoms, IP Networks, Digital Media and Forecasts, provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications and digital media markets in one of Eastern Europe’s largest and most competitive markets. It includes data for the regulator’s 2010 annual report as well as operator data to the third quarter of 2011.

As one of the ten countries which joined the European Union (EU) in mid-2004, Poland was obliged to reform its telecoms market and align its policies with those of the EU. Competition was introduced but the incumbent operator Telekomunikacja Polska (TP) has retained a major share of the overall market, and dominates most sectors. The fixed-line market has contracted due to competition and the trend of fixed-mobile substitution: market revenue fell PLN1.7 billion in 2010 to PLN 5.5 billion and was expected to fall to about PLN5 billion in 2011, with the number of lines falling to 7.4 million from eight million in 2010.

In common with many of its neighbours, Poland has been affected by the recent global financial turmoil. This slowdown has been reflected in the overall telecoms market, which generated PLN 42.8 billion in 2010, only a slight increase on 2009. Revenue is expected to show a slight increase to 2012, largely on the back of the mobile and broadband sectors which will compensate for falling fixed-line voice telephony revenue.

The country has a well developed mobile market with high mobile penetration partly attributed to multiple SIM card ownership. There are some 21 mobile operators, including six MNOs and a sufficient number of MVNOs to provide effective competition in the low-cost sector. A key recent development has been the 15-year network sharing deal affecting their infrastructure and radio frequencies of T-Mobile Poland and Orange Poland. The joint venture, ‘NetWorkS!’, will allow for faster infrastructure development and will deliver to both companies cost savings estimated at hundreds of millions of euros over the next five years: the operators expected that the deal would reduce overall expenditure by 29% in the first three years from reduced capex for network development as well as lower opex. Orange expected to save PLN200 million annually from 2015. The move follows similar sharing agreements by the two companies in Austria and elsewhere in Europe, and in part results from their flagship enterprise Everything Everywhere in the UK.

Poland’s broadband market has developed rapidly in recent years as a result of falling tariffs and large scale take up of services. Growth in largely the result of the phenomenal increase in the number of mobile broadband subscribers, which now makes up the majority of accesses. Overall growth is expected to be steady in 2012, with the majority of subscribers being on mobile broadband plans. The FttX sector will also show significant growth in a number of cities, which should reduce the number of DSL customers as these are migrated to fibre networks.

DSL remains the most commonly available fixed-line platform. The incumbent’s market share has steadily fallen as the improving regulatory environment in relation to network access has given competitors alternatives through bitstream access and LLU: in mid-2011 the incumbent had a 37% share of the broadband market by subscribers, while Netia had a 13% share and UPC Polska a 10% share.

The fragmented CATV market is ripe for further consolidation: at the end of 2010 Liberty Global, owners o UPC Polska, bought Aster City, the fourth largest cableco, while in early 2011 Vectra filed to take over part of the cable business of the third largest player Multimedia Polska. In mid-2011 Vectra acquired the analogue cable networks in Bydgoszcz and five nearby towns from Netia.

Cablecos are continuing to invest in technology upgrades in a bid to retain customers in the face of competition from the fibre sector: by the end of 2011 UPC Polska had extended its 150Mb/s service to over 1.6 million households following upgrades in Lublin, Kraków, Katowice, Gdansk and Warsaw.

Key telecom parameters - 2010; 2012
Sector20102012 (e)

Broadband:

Fixed broadband subscribers (million)5.866.56
Fixed broadband penetration rate18%22%
Mobile broadband subscribers (million)3.59.3

Subscribers to telecoms services:

Fixed-line telephony (million)8.37.0
Mobile phone (million)46.949.3
Mobile SIM penetration (population)123%128%
(Source: BuddeComm)

Market Highlights

ASO has been confirmed for mid-2013, though satellite and digital cable TV remain the most common form of receiving TV.The regulator’s recent agreement with Ukraine concerning the use of frequencies in the 790-862MHz band in border areas will help the development of 4G services in Poland for mobile services. The agreement follows similar ones already undertaken with Russia and Belarus.The National Broadcasting Council has awarded licences for the final four channels on the first multiplex. All four broadcasters are new entrants to the market, and have established that they would not require investors or funding after receiving their licenses. The move is a major step in the progression to ASO.LTE, kick-started in late 2010, can potentially be developed in a number of bands licensed thus far. CenterNet and Mobyland have migrated base stations to LTE using the 1800MHz band, and aim to provide 60% geographic and 75% population coverage. Refarmed existing G spectrum can avoid the costs associated with new spectrum acquisitions, and so cost effectively extend mobile broadband to rural areas in coming years. Polkomtel commercially launched LTE at the end of 2011, providing 22% population coverage in 16 cities.FttX deployments remain low key though the government’s broadband policy has provisioned for network infrastructure access to promote fibre deployments.UPC and other cablecos have upgraded their networks to the DOCSIS 3.0 standard, providing up to 150Mb/s. Multimedia Polska, Aster City and Vectra also offer DOCSIS 3.0-based services. The higher data rate should help forestall customer churn to FttX networks as they are built out in coming years.Further market consolidation is expected in the cable TV sector as the major operators buy out regional players, and so realise greater scale to help upgrade networks and so fend of churn to fibre networks in coming years.This report is essential reading for those needing high level strategic information and objective analysis on the telecom sector in Poland. It provides further information on:

Market liberalisation and regulatory issues;The impact of the global economic crisis;Telecoms operators - privatisation, acquisitions, new licences;Mobile data market developments in coming years in light of spectrum auctions and new license awards in 2012;3G developments, regulatory issues and technologies including HSPA and LTE;Broadband migration to an FttH architecture;Historical and current subscriber statistics and forecasts;ARPU statistics and forecasts.

1. Key Statistics
2. Telecommunications Market: 2.1 Overview of Poland’s telecom market
3. Regulatory Environment: 3.1 History; 3.2 Regulatory authority; 3.3 Telecom sector liberalisation in Poland; 3.4 Privatisation; 3.5 Interconnection; 3.6 Carrier selection and carrier preselection; 3.7 Access; 3.8 Functional separation; 3.9 Number Portability (NP)
4. Fixed Network Operators: 4.1 Market overview; 4.2 Telekomunikacja Polska (TP); 4.3 Netia; 4.4 Telefonia Dialog; 4.5 Telekomunikacja Kolejowa; 4.6 GTS Energis; 4.7 Exatel
5. Telecommunications Infrastructure: 5.1 Fixed-line statistics; 5.2 TP; 5.3 Alternative operators; 5.4 Wholesaling
6. Broadband Market: 6.1 Fixed broadband market; 6.2 Wireless broadband; 6.3 Mobile broadband
7. Digital Media: 7.1 Overview of Digital Media market
8. Mobile Communications: 8.1 Overview of Poland’s mobile market; 8.2 Regulatory issues; 8.3 Mobile technologies; 8.4 Major mobile operators; 8.5 Mobile voice services; 8.6 Mobile Messaging
9. Forecasts: 9.1 Forecasts - fixed broadband subscribers - 2010 - 2013; 2020; 9.2 Notes on scenario forecasts
10. Glossary of Abbreviations
List of Tables, Charts and Exhibits: Table 1 - Country statistics - 2011 (e); Table 2 - Telephone network statistics - 2011 (e); Table 3 - Internet user statistics - 2011 (e); Table 4 - Broadband statistics - 2011 (e); Table 5 - Mobile statistics - 2011 (e); Table 6 - National telecommunications authority; Table 7 - Telecom revenue - 2008 - 2012; Table 8 - Market share of revenue and subscribers by operator - 2010; Table 9 - TP interconnection rates - 2006 - 2009; Table 10 - LLU as proportion of DSL lines - 2008 - 2010; Table 11 - Numbers ported - 2009 - 2010; Table 12 - Fixed-line telephony revenue and subscribers - 2005 - 2012; Table 13 - Market share of revenue by operator - 2010; Table 14 - Market share of subscribers, TP and altnets - 2006 - 2010; Table 15 - Market share of revenue, TP and altnets - 2006 - 2010; Table 16 - TP total retail lines and ARPU - 2009 - 2011; Table 17 - TP fixed-line ARPU - 2009 - 2011; Table 18 - TP Group financial data - 2006 - 2011; Table 19 - Netia financial data - 2007 - 2011; Table 20 - Netia subscribers by type - 2008 - 2011; Table 21 - Exatel financial data - 2009 - 2010; Table 22 - Fixed lines in service and teledensity - 2000 - 2011; Table 23 - Wholesale lines by type - 2009 - 2010; Table 24 - Cost of local loop unbundling and shared access - 2006 - 2009; Table 25 - Broadband market revenue by sector - 2006 - 2012; Table 26 - Proportion of broadband market revenue by sector - 2006 - 2010; Table 27 - Broadband penetration by technology - 2009 - 2012; Table 28 - Workplace network usage by network type - 2006 - 2011; Table 29 - E-education usage by individuals - 2007 - 2011; Table 30 - E-education usage by businesses - 2007 - 2011; Table 31 - Online purchases by individuals - 2005 - 2012; Table 32 - Electronic sales as percentage of total non-VAT turnover for non-financial sector businesses with 10 or more employees - 2009; Table 33 - Uptake of e-government services by businesses - 2004 - 2011; Table 34 - Uptake of e-government services by individuals - 2004 - 2011; Table 35 - Internet users, subscribers and penetration rates - 2000 - 2012; Table 36 - ISP market share - 2008 - 2010; Table 37 - Fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rate - 2001 - 2012; Table 38 - Fixed broadband subscribers by data speed - January 2010; Table 39 - TP broadband and IPTV ARPU - 2008 - 2011; Table 40 - Netia broadband subscribers - 2008 - 2011; Table 41 - UPC Poland subscribers - 2008 - 2011; Table 42 - Cable market share of subscribers by operator - 2010; Table 43 - TP DSL subscribers - 2003 - 2011; Table 44 - Netia DSL subscribers - 2008 - 2011; Table 45 - DSL market share of subscribers by operator - 2010; Table 46 - Mobile broadband market share of subscribers by operator - 2010; Table 47 - Mobile broadband subscribers and penetration rate - 2004 - 2012; Table 48 - Orange dedicated mobile broadband subscribers - 2007 - 2011; Table 49 - Proportion of subscribers to bundled services by type - 2010; Table 50 - Market share of TV and broadband bundles by operator - 2010; Table 51 - TP Livebox customers - 2008 - 2011; Table 52 - Netia financial data and annual change - 2007 - 2011; Table 53 - Netia broadband and voice subscribers - 2010 - 2011; Table 54 - Cable TV market share by operator - Mar 2011; Table 55 - Cable TV subscribers -2010 - 2011; Table 56 - UPC - homes passed - 2003 - 2011; Table 57 - UPC - subscribers by service type - 2003 - 2011; Table 58 - Multimedia Polska financial data - 2009 - 2011; Table 59 - Multimedia Polska subscribers - 2009 - 2011; Table 60 - Multimedia Polska triple play subscribers by service - 2009 - 2011; Table 61 - Cyfrowy Polsat financial data - 2004 - 2011; Table 62 - Cyfrowy Polsat operational data - 2004 - 2011; Table 63 - TP DTH subscribers - 2008 - 2011; Table 64 - Mobile market revenue - 2009 - 2012; Table 65 - Mobile subscribers and penetration rate - 1995 - 2012; Table 66 - Mobile market share of revenue by operator - 2009 - 2010; Table 67 - Mobile market share of subscribers by operator - 2009 - 2010; Table 68 - Mobile market traffic and annual change - 2009 - 2012; Table 69 - Mobile number portings - 2010 - 2011; Table 70 - Retail roaming charges, voice, SMS, data - 2010, 2012 - 2015; Table 71 - Roaming traffic (voice, SMS, data) - 2007 - 2010; Table 72 - Orange mobile revenue - 2010 - 2011; Table 73 - Orange subscribers - 2007 - 2011; Table 74 - Orange total monthly ARPU and MOU - 2008 - 2011; Table 75 - Orange data ARPU share - 2008 - 2011; Table 76 - Polkomtel subscribers - 2009 - 2010; Table 77 - Polkomtel financial data - 2009 - 2011; Table 78 - Polkomtel annualised ARPU - 2008 - 2009; Table 79 - T-Mobile subscribers - 2007 - 2011; Table 80 - T-Mobile financial data - 2005 - 2011; Table 81 - T-Mobile ARPU and churn - 2005 - 2011; Table 82 - Ratio of prepaid to postpaid subscribers - 2003 - 2010; Table 83 - Orange prepaid subscribers - 2003 - 2011; Table 84 - T-Mobile prepaid subscribers - 2005 - 2011; Table 85 - Polkomtel prepaid subscribers - 2005 - 2010; Table 86 - SMS messages sent and annual growth- 2006 - 2012; Table 87 - MMS messages sent and annual growth- 2006 - 2012; Table 88 - Mobile data traffic- 2008 - 2012; Table 89 - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers - higher growth scenario - 2010 - 2013; 2020; Table 90 - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers - lower growth scenario - 2010 - 2013; 2020; Chart 1 - Fixed-line telephony revenue and subscribers - 2005 - 2012; Chart 2 - Market share of subscribers, TP and altnets - 2006 - 2010; Chart 3 - Market share of revenue, TP and altnets - 2006 - 2010; Chart 4 - TP total retail lines and ARPU - 2009 - 2011; Chart 5 - TP Group financial data - 2006 - 2011; Chart 6 - Netia financial data - 2007 - 2011; Chart 7 - Netia subscribers by type - 2008 - 2011; Chart 8 - Exatel financial data - 2009 - 2010; Chart 9 - Broadband market revenue by sector - 2006 - 2012; Chart 10 - Proportion of broadband market revenue by sector - 2006 - 2010; Chart 11 - Fixed broadband subscribers and penetration rate - 2001 - 2012; Chart 12 - UPC Poland subscribers - 2008 - 2011; Chart 13 - Netia financial data and annual change - 2007 - 2011; Chart 14 - UPC - subscribers by service type - 2003 - 2011; Chart 15 - Multimedia Polska financial data - 2009 - 2011; Chart 16 - Multimedia Polska subscribers - 2009 - 2011; Chart 17 - Cyfrowy Polsat financial data - 2004 - 2011; Chart 18 - Mobile subscribers and penetration rate - 2000 - 2012; Chart 19 - Orange subscribers - 2007 - 2011; Chart 20 - Orange total monthly ARPU and MOU - 2008 - 2011; Chart 21 - Polkomtel subscribers - 2009 - 2010; Chart 22 - Polkomtel financial data - 2009 - 2011; Chart 23 - T-Mobile financial data - 2005 - 2011; Exhibit 1 - The EU Regulatory Framework for communications; Exhibit 2 - Access, the local loop and unbundling - an overview; Exhibit 3 - 2G spectrum awarded in Poland

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