While the U.S. economic recovery remains fragile, we find much for the restaurant industry to celebrate. Packaged Facts' Foodservice Landscape
forecasts restaurant growth of 4.2% in 2012, on the heels of 6% market growth in 2011.
Nonetheless, the industry continues to face significant challenges. For the past three years, guest traffic volume has come entirely from population growth, not usage increase. Restaurant operators across restaurant segments must also contend with the increased numbers of lower-spending guests and with the loss of higher-income patrons, which has translated to higher volume but lower guest check averages.
Food commodity price increases could also threaten the continuation of the 2010-2011 sales recovery. And while our analysis calls into question the impact of consumer confidence on guest visit frequency, further declines in the unemployment rate are needed to spur restaurant industry growth, as our analysis supports a relationship between the unemployment rate and guest visit frequency across a range of restaurant segments.
This report provides the guidance industry participants need to understand industry and consumer trends shaping the U.S. foodservice landscape, including the quick-service, fast casual, family, casual and fine dining restaurant segments:
- Restaurant price, promotion and branding strategy assessment, including stepped up industry “fast casualization”; the effect of daily deals on customer ordering habits; and restaurant operators’ menu pricing and promotion strategies.
- Macro-economic analysis & trending, including an economic forecast through 2014; consumer confidence trends and their application to foodservice; employment trends and their application to foodservice; consumer spending, wealth and debt trends and their application to foodservice; and retail and commodity food price trends and forecasts.
- Restaurant industry guest traffic trending, including guest traffic count and visit frequency comparisons for three restaurant segments (snack and beverage, limited-service and full-service), along with analysis by demographic and by daypart.
- Industry-leading restaurant brand analysis covering each major restaurant segment, including menu strategies; customer food lifestyle segmentation analysis; trended guest visit frequency analysis; and performance metrics.
- Restaurant cuisine & menu trending, focusing on menu item penetration by restaurant segment, including top proteins, sides, kids’ items, healthy claims, and preparation methods.
- Market size and forecast for restaurant and drinking place sales, same-store sales analysis of major brands for 2005-2011, and consumer restaurant spending by segment for 2007-2010.
- Assessment of health and wellness trends shaping the restaurant industry, including obesity and calorie count trends; health and food away from home correlations; government and industry health initiatives; and menu labeling effectiveness.
- Restaurant technology trend analysis, with a focus on increasingly mobile communication-oriented consumers and emerging mobile payment technologies.