The China Export Survey - April 2010

Despite strong export numbers in April and expectations for further growth in Q2, exporters are concerned about rising production and labor costs, squeezed profit margins, difficulties gaining access to credit and likely currency appreciation.

Monthly exports are now tracking at pre-crisis levels - export value last month outstripped the $119.01 billion in exports recorded in April 2008 (see The China Report: Macro Monthly, May 12, 2010). Aside from the official numbers, the recently concluded Canton Fair also provided positive evidence of a recovery. The value of export contracts signed during China’s largest export trade fair - the total value of contracts at the fair has accounted for more than 5% of China’s total exports every year since 2005 - totaled $34.3 billion, up 12.6% on the autumn session last October and 30.9% on the corresponding spring session last year.

In order to gauge outlook and confidence among exporters, we spoke to 100 export-oriented manufacturers based across northern, eastern and southeastern China, most of which are primarily focused on exports to the US, Europe, East Asia and Southeast Asia.