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Zambia: Country Economic Forecast: 01 Nov 2011

Oxford Economics
November 1, 2011
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6655624

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Countries covered: Zambia

Newly-elected President Sata has made an impetuous start to his rule, installing his own men in key positions and planning to rewrite the constitution. His anti-China rhetoric has been toned down, but the mining industry faces stricter controls, higher equity participation by the state and the probable reintroduction of a windfall tax. Copper production may match last year's 820,000 tonnes, below the 900,000 tonne target. But ambitious investment projects planned may double output by 2015. The economy is advancing on a broad front. After GDP growth of just over 7% in 2010, we forecast expansion of about 6.5% this year, with a similar rate seen in 2012-13. As well as the mining sector, agriculture is making another contribution after abundant rains and government aid to peasant farming. Infrastructure investment remains to be stepped up. After receiving B+ credit ratings in March this year, the government is considering an international bond issue to finance projects. The economy remains quite well balanced. Inflation, currently just under 9%, may miss the end-2011 target of 7%. The freely floating kwacha has drifted down modestly against the US$ this year but the current account is again expected to post a surplus of close to 2.5% of GDP. Foreign reserves cover 3-4 months' imports and the budget deficit is equal to about 3.5% of GDP.

Zambia:: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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Zambia: Country Economic Forecast: 01 Nov 2011

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