US Weekly Economic Briefing: 13 Feb 2012

The economy continues to improve. The better than expected report on the labor market for January is the most obvious recent signal, but there have been other such indicators, including construction spending, the ISM indexes, and durable goods orders. However, we continue to expect only moderate growth this year and next. This reflects concerns about the consumer, with confidence weak and the housing market still under pressure. The government sector is also expected to remain a drag on growth, as budgets remain an issue. Businesses also remain cautious, with uncertainty with respect to fiscal policy domestically and downside risks among trading partners as key factors. Growth is expected to slow to a range of 2%-2½% over much of 2012. While it is expected to pick up in the second half, fiscal tightening is expected to take a toll in the first half of 2013. On an annual basis, the economy is expected to expand 2.3% in 2012 and 2.5% in 2013.