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Vietnam: Country Economic Forecast: 17 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 17, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6769239

Abstract Table of Contents Search inside this report Related Reports

Countries covered: Vietnam

GDP growth was just over 6% in Q4, giving full-year 2011 growth of 5.9%, slightly better than expected given the budget cuts and interest rate rises made necessary by above-target inflation. But there will be little change this year, as European markets stay very weak in H1 and continued double-digit inflation slows relaxation of monetary policy. Exports rose more strongly than forecast in 2011 but rapid import growth - reflecting the shift to an industrial processing economy - meant that VND devaluations did more to prolong inflation than to narrow the trade gap. This will strengthen official determination to slow the VND depreciation in 2012-13; an ongoing need to expand foreign reserves in line with import needs will also restrain the rate at which interest rates can fall. The central bank is working towards more targeted credit growth curbs and better restraints on borrowing for speculative investment, to improve the allocation of capital to profitable uses and prevent future asset price bubbles. However, political pressure to maintain the credit flow to state-owned firms remains strong and is impeding the reduction in their debt from current still-dangerous levels. Although growth should recover to the medium-term target 6.5% as the EU crisis abates, risks to growth remain mostly on the downside. VND weakness could return if progress on reducing inflation and the trade and fiscal deficits is less than forecast, and regional security concerns could also hit investor confidence.

Vietnam:: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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Vietnam: Country Economic Forecast: 17 Jan 2012

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