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USA: Country Economic Forecast: 16 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 16, 2012
10 Pages - SKU: OFE6769218

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Countries covered: United States

The US economy continues to show signs of building strength. The most prominent sign is the apparent improvement in the labor market, but there are also positive readings on the consumer sector, business, international trade and even the housing market. However, there are still some significant constraints on the economy, including major uncertainties over the European financial crisis, and US fiscal policy. And even with improvements there is still a long way to go before consumer confidence, the labor market or the housing sector can be said to be healthy. All remain weak enough that even a relatively mild shock could send them back to the depths plumbed during the recession. The forecast depends on several key assumptions: that Europe manages to contain its financial crisis, that the federal government refrains from shutting down and from imposing more fiscal drag, that oil and other commodity prices remain relatively stable, and that consumers and businesses remain relatively cautious. We believe that growth picked up to about 3.0% in 2011Q4, but that it will slow to an average of just 2.5% in H1 2012. Although we expect an acceleration in H2, increased fiscal austerity will likely cause a stumble at the start of 2013, limiting annual growth to 2.7%, up only slightly from 2.5% expected for 2012.

US:: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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USA: Country Economic Forecast: 16 Jan 2012

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