UK Weekly Economic Briefing: 27 Jan 2012Oxford EconomicsJanuary 27, 2012 15 Pages - SKU: OFE6784699 |
| Countries covered: United Kingdom Business surveys and labour market indicators are offering widely contrasting signals as to the degree of spare capacity in the UK economy. On balance, we place a slightly greater emphasis on the indicators of the labour market, which can generally be measured more accurately and which better fit with the anecdotal evidence. Based upon this data, we estimate that the output gap was around -3.2% of potential output at the end of 2011. This is much lower than the 2009 peak in the output gap of -6.1%, but it does imply somewhat more spare capacity than estimated by OBR. A range of factors - including a higher NAIRU, lower migration flows and tight credit conditions - mean that our forecast shows potential output growing by just 1.6% a year in 2012-16, with growth during that period accelerating from just 0.6% in 2012 to 2% a year in 2015-16, as some of the negative legacy effects of the financial crisis gradually fade. The large output gap will allow stronger growth in actual GDP, which we forecast will grow on average by 2.1% a year over the next five years, but this would still represent a significant slowdown compared with previous cycles and is somewhat weaker than the OBR's forecast. |
More United Kingdom International Trade Reports
UK Weekly Economic Briefing: 04 May 2012 by
Oxford Economics
Last week's release of the preliminary estimate of GDP for 2012Q1 caused quite a stir, with the outturn being significantly weaker than any commentator had ...
United Kingdom - ISA Country Report by
ISA (International Strategic Analysis)
This report contains detailed forecasts and analysis for the UK, including trade and investment analysis, economic forecasts, political risk assessments and demographic trend analysis. ...
UK Weekly Economic Briefing: 27 Apr 2012 by
Oxford Economics
As in the 1990s mortgage crisis, the 2008-9 upturn in the possessions rate was preceded by lower lending quality and rising debt and house price ...
UK Weekly Economic Briefing: 20 Apr 2012 by
Oxford Economics
Incorporating new and revised data, our estimate of London's output growth in 2011 has been adjusted upwards to 1.9% - a creditable performance given the ...
UK: Country Economic Forecast: 17 Apr 2012 by
Oxford Economics
With a few notable exceptions, activity data in the UK have continued to strengthen over the past month and we estimate that GDP grew by ...
See all reports like this >>
More United Kingdom Reports
A Comprehensive Study Of The UK Video Conferencing Equipment Market In 2010, Rating & Valuing Each Of The 30 Companies That Operate In Today's Market by
Plimsoll Publishing Ltd.
The Plimsoll Analysis provides you with the most up to date and comprehensive analysis of the top 9 companies operating the market. It is ...
A Comprehensive Study Of The UK Tableware Market In 2010, Rating & Valuing Each Of The 166 Companies That Operate In Today's Market by
Plimsoll Publishing Ltd.
The Plimsoll Analysis provides you with the most up to date and comprehensive analysis of the top 9 companies operating the market. It is ...
A Comprehensive Study Of The UK Surveyors & Valuers Market In 2010, Rating & Valuing Each Of The 943 Companies That Operate In Today's Market by
Plimsoll Publishing Ltd.
The Plimsoll Analysis provides you with the most up to date and comprehensive analysis of the top 9 companies operating the market. It is ...
A Comprehensive Study Of The UK Subsea Engineering Market In 2010, Rating & Valuing Each Of The 142 Companies That Operate In Today's Market by
Plimsoll Publishing Ltd.
The Plimsoll Analysis provides you with the most up to date and comprehensive analysis of the top 9 companies operating the market. It is ...
A Comprehensive Study Of The UK Structural Engineering Consultancy Market In 2010, Rating & Valuing Each Of The 300 Companies That Operate In Today's Market by
Plimsoll Publishing Ltd.
The Plimsoll Analysis provides you with the most up to date and comprehensive analysis of the top 9 companies operating the market. It is ...
See all reports like this >>
