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UK: Country Economic Forecast: 16 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 16, 2012
9 Pages - SKU: OFE6769208

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Countries covered: United Kingdom

Recent UK data have sent conflicting signals. On the one hand, output data have been very weak; manufacturing output fell 0.9% in October and 0.2% in November, while services output fell by 0.7% in October, so the economy is likely to have contracted in Q4. However, survey data for December was much improved, with all three of the PMI surveys strengthening. In our view, we are likely to see a mild technical recession in 2011Q4-2012Q1 but, assuming that the Eurozone authorities are able to agree a solution that contains the financial crisis, recovery should follow thereafter. This will be supported by higher spending associated with hosting the Olympic Games in the summer. But downside risks continue to dominate. The Eurozone crisis has already had a significant impact on confidence and any further escalation of the crisis would risk a much deeper UK recession due to the strong trade links and the potential for spillovers into the banking system. The labour market is a key source of domestic risk, with the private sector increasingly struggling to create a sufficient number of jobs to offset the cuts in the public sector. Against this fragile backdrop, it would be a major surprise if the Bank of England does not authorise a further round of QE once the current tranche of purchases is completed. We expect the Bank to authorise a further Â£75bn of asset purchases in February.

UK:: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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UK: Country Economic Forecast: 16 Jan 2012

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