The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
The worries about diminishing QE in the US and an upsurge in domestic political tensions have had a dramatic impact on Turkey’s financial markets over the last three months. And with the currency sliding, headline inflation already above 8% (boosted by soaring fresh food prices) and a sizeable current account deficit to be financed, the central bank has recognised that interest rates need to be higher; in July, it raised its overnight lending rate, having cut it as recently as May. Although, given the scale of the recent changes, we expect Turkish markets to recover modestly during the remainder of the year, actual bank lending rates for firms and consumers will be 2-3% points higher at the end of 2013 than in mid-year. This, together with the weaker short-term outlook in many other emergers and the impact of the political discontent, will lead to much slower growth (albeit still positive) in H2 2013 than in H1, particularly in domestic demand. But this will be no bad thing, as it will check the widening in the current account deficit (import volumes jumped 7% on the quarter in Q2) and slow bank lending growth (which was too rapid). Provided global markets do not panic further about US monetary policy and the domestic political situation does not worsen, the ‘soft patch’ in the Turkish economy should be temporary, with growth gradually gaining momentum through 2014 and into 2015. Moreover, this expansion should be better balanced than in early 2013, with exports lifted by recoveries in the Eurozone and US.