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Thailand: Country Economic Forecast: 03 Feb 2012

Oxford Economics
February 3, 2012
11 Pages - SKU: OFE6799173

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Countries covered: Thailand

Businesses shut down by the floods began to reopen in December and seasonally adjusted industrial output rose by 31.4% on the month. But, despite this, output was still more than 30% below August's level, worse than the output loss during the 2008/09 global crisis. The central bank expects that it will take until 2012Q3 for industry to return to normal. Consumer confidence rose in December as retail activity was able to resume. Having fallen in the previous three months, seasonally adjusted private consumption rose by 1.7% on the month in December. The central bank expects consumer spending to improve further in Q1 due to pent-up demand. And imports improved markedly in December as reconstruction efforts got under way. But seasonally adjusted private investment fell by 2.3% on the month in December, the fourth consecutive drop. In addition to the impact of the floods on both domestic and foreign investors, the deterioration in the global outlook is likely to keep private investment subdued. But reconstruction funded by the government will support overall investment. So far, the government estimates the damage from the flooding at THB1.3 trillion (US$41.5bn) and we expect the fiscal deficit to rise to over 4% of GDP in 2012 from an estimated 2.4% in 2011. Offering support to the investment climate, the central bank has cut the key interest rate by 25bp at its last two meetings.

Thailand:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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Thailand: Country Economic Forecast: 03 Feb 2012

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